Monday, October 13, 2014

Hurricane Gonzalo: Hurricane Warning for British Virgin Islands; Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands (FORECAST)

October 13,2014


 
Hurricane Gonzalo has prompted hurricane warnings, hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and parts of the Leeward Islands as it sweeps in from the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Tune-in to The Weather Channel TV network to watch live coverage on the severe weather outbreak and Hurricane Gonzalo. To keep you safe and informed of the latest breaking news, our regular programming will be suspended until the threat has passed.
Air Force Hurricane Hunters found a small area of hurricane-force winds near the center of Gonzalo Monday afternoon, prompting the National Hurricane Center to upgrade Gonzalo to a hurricane in its 5 p.m. EDT advisory Monday.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)
Tropical force sustained winds up to 67 mph, with gusts up to 88 mph, were measured at V. C. Bird International Airport on Antigua. The radar image below shows where rain is falling and how heavy it is. Selected hourly wind reports from airport and buoy sites are also shown on this map.
Gonzalo, the seventh named storm of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, formed as a tropical storm early Sunday afternoon.
Gonzalo is moving toward the northwest at 10 to 15 mph, and continues to steadily strengthen. That strengthening is expected to continue over the next couple of days.
As of 11 p.m. AST, a hurricane warning is in effect for the British Virgin Islands, St. Martin, and Anguilla.
The hurricane watch previously in effect for Puerto Rico has been dropped, thanks to a slight northward jog in Gonzalo's path Monday. That puts the center of Gonzalo -- but only the center -- in a position to more easily bypass Puerto Rico.
However, given the wind field surrounding Gonzalo's center, a tropical storm warning continues for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Sint Maarten and St. Barthelemy.
Conditions will deteriorate Monday night across the Virgin Islands as stronger winds move in. Outer rainbands have already brushed Puerto Rico at times, and should become more frequent Monday night into Tuesday.
(FORECASTS: San Juan | St. Thomas | St. Croix)
Up to 12 inches of rain is possible in the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands through Tuesday or Wednesday, which could trigger flash flooding and mud/rockslides in mountainous terrain. Puerto Rico can expect rainfall amounts of 3 to 8 inches as Gonzalo passes by to the east and north.
(NWS ALERTS: Puerto Rico/U.S. Virgin Islands)
Swells generated by Gonzalo will lead to dangerous surf and rip currents along area beaches, as well.
Gonzalo will eventually curl north around the periphery of subtropical high pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean after making its closest approach to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico early Tuesday.
Conditions are favorable to Gonzalo to intensify, potentially rapidly, and Gonzalo may intensify to a Category 3 or stronger hurricane as it tracks east of the southeast Bahamas around mid-week.
It is not clear yet whether Gonzalo will threaten Bermuda this weekend, but it remains a distinct possibility, possibly as a hurricane. All interests from the Leeward Islands to Bermuda should monitor closely the progress of this system.
(MORE: Tropical Storm Fay Hammers Bermuda)
At this time, this system poses no direct threat to the mainland United States.
Below are the latest infrared and visible (during daylight hours) satellite imagery.

Infrared Satellite

This infrared satellite image shows how cold (and therefore how high) the cloud tops are. Brighter orange and red shadings concentrated near the center of circulation signify a healthy tropical cyclone.

Visible Satellite

This visible satellite image, available only during daylight hours, can depict where the center of circulation is in a developing tropical cyclone or can pick out incredible detail in a mature hurricane's eyewall. In some cases, you can pick out the low-level circulation displaced from its parent thunderstorms when strong shearing winds aloft are in play.

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