Published: September 10,2014
- Area of low pressure near the Bahamas a little better organized; recon flight scheduled
- Regardless of development increasing rainfall headed to Florida later this week
- Odile becomes the 15th named storm in the eastern Pacific; may threaten Mexico as a hurricane by early next week
- Two additional disturbances in the eastern Pacific, with one poised to become Tropical Storm Polo
WESTERN ATLANTIC / BAHAMAS
The area of low pressure (designated Invest 92L) spinning over the northwestern Bahamas has become a little better organized Wednesday afternoon. The low level spin is better defined and thunderstorms are growing over the the small circulation. Pressures have fallen some Wednesday afternoon and evening in the area, but remain relatively high (1014-1015 mb).The disturbance has a brief window for development into a tropical depression or tropical storm before making it to Florida later this week. Water temperatures near Florida are very warm, with 80+ degree waters extending down about 400 feet, meaning the system has plenty of fuel to tap. That said, the upper level wind pattern that currently favors development, especially with such a small circulation, is forecast to become less favorable tomorrow.
Regardless of development, increasing rainfall will head toward Florida by Thursday into Friday, likely lingering into Saturday before a more typical summertime regime returns. At this point models are not forecasting a heavy rainfall event, but rather an enhancement to the wet season rains.
EASTERN ATLANTIC
Invest 91L has a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm within 48 hours, as of the 8 p.m. NHC update.EASTERN PACIFIC
Odile (oh-DEAL) has become the 15th named storm in a long line of tropical systems this season across the Pacific. The storm is being held in check by strong northeast to southwest flowing winds aloft. Little movement is expected over the next few days as Odile sits under an atmosphere of light steering. Upper winds should begin to relax Thursday, allowing the storm to strengthen, perhaps into a hurricane by later this week.(FORECAST: Tropical Storm Odile)
If Odile strengthens, tropical storm watches could be issued for the Pacific side of Mexico. High pressure will build back in from the east by this weekend, at which point, Odile will begin moving more quickly northwestward. The forecast from NHC places Odile very near Cabo San Lucas as a near Category 3 hurricane by late Sunday, yet again bringing tropical moisture up into the Gulf of California. It's too early to say what impacts this could have (again) on the southwest interior of the U.S. but weather models show another surge of moisture sneaking into parts of southern Arizona early next week. Stay tuned.
Invest 95-E, about 1,000 miles west of Odile, is close to becoming the next storm in the eastern Pacific. Weather models indicate 95-L will strengthen into Tropical Storm Polo and head eastward, perhaps getting wrapped up in Odile's circulation by this weekend. 95-L is no immediate threat to land.
Another area of low pressure west of 95-E (Invest 96-E) will be following in 95-E's footsteps this week. Slow development of this system is also possible as it tracks northeastward this week.
WESTERN PACIFIC
A new tropical depression has formed about 1400 miles east of the Philippines. The depression will likely strengthen to a powerful typhoon over the next several days, perhaps threatening Luzon and the northern Philippines by early next week.
(MORE: Glossary of Tropical Terms | New NHC Storm Surge Maps)
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