Early Week Flood Threat Targets Pittsburgh, Philly, NYC

By Brian Edwards, Meteorologist

August 11,2014; 9:25PM,EDT

 

 

After a warm and dry weekend across the mid-Atlantic states, a potent early week storm will generate drenching showers and thunderstorms, bringing a threat for flash flooding to many locations.
The same storm system has already wreaked havoc in the Southeast, causing one fatality in South Carolina due to flash flooding.
Potent low pressure will strengthen over the Ohio Valley on Monday, tapping into abundant moisture from the south, which will provide fuel for the drenching storms.
Heavy thunderstorms are already affecting much of the state of Ohio, bringing torrential downpours to cities such as Columbus, Cleveland, Zanesville, and Youngstown.

By the time the evening commute rolls around on Monday, the heavy rain threat will transition into western Pennsylvania.
Many locations will pick up between two and four inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts possible. Rainfall to this magnitude will lead to flooding of streams and creeks.
In urban areas such as Pittsburgh, Columbus, Cleveland, and Erie, there is a risk of street and highway flooding, which can cause major delays for commuters traveling along Interstates 80, 76 and 79.
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As the aforementioned storm shifts northeastward on Monday night into Tuesday, the threat for drenching thunderstorms will transition into central and eastern Pennsylvania as well as New Jersey and parts of New York.
Two to four inches of rain will fall from Harrisburg, Pennsylvania to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania to New York City, New York, leading to an urban and small stream flood threat.

The evening commute on Tuesday will be very slow from New York City to Philadelphia. Some commuters may even face detours around any localized flooding problems that develop.
These drenching storms will slowly shift into central New England by Tuesday night as cooler and drier air filters into the mid-Atlantic states.
With many areas at or above their normal rainfall for the summer, flash flooding can occur rather quickly. Heavy rainfall will easily runoff into small streams, causing them to rise rapidly.
The same storm system set to hit the Northeast has already proved deadly after flash flooding in Greenville County, South Carolina claimed the life of one woman. Travelling in a car, the woman and her partner managed to escape their vehicle as it was being swept away by swift waters, but did not escape the inundated area in time. The man is still missing.
Small creeks can quickly turn into dangerous, fast-flowing bodies of water. Caution should be used when approaching these creeks as well as roadways that are covered with water.

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• Brian Patterson · Follow · Top Commenter · Bronx, New York

  The enhanced rainfall and flash flood risk will be exacerbated due to a secondary Low forming near NJ/PA. Then a northeastward track to aid in the heavier rainfall amounts. If it was just for the primary Low iver the Great Lakes, it would likely amount to a widespread 1-2 inches. BUT the secondary Low is shown in both the Euro and American models, therefore, we expected higher than 1-2 inch rainfall totals.

  Reply · Like · Follow Post · 31 seconds ago
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  Chris Broomfield · Port Hope, Ontario

  Why r the forecasts so different in terms of the amount of rain? Evrioment Canada is saying 20 to 40 mm, the weathernetwork is saying 30 to 50 mm accuweather being the most extreme.

  Reply · Like · Follow Post · 16 hours ago

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    John Stow · Top Commenter

    Forecast is defined as an educated guess. These amounts are based on information the weather forecasters have now, but the weather changes and these forecasts change according to the data available.

    Reply · Like · 15 hours ago
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• 

  Peter Kane · Top Commenter

  There are some areas that could get 6 inches of rain where the highest risk area is situated.

  Reply · Like · Follow Post · 4 hours ago
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  Jennifer Medford · Union County College

  Whelp there goes the AC Air show for Wednesday!! That sucks!!!

  Reply · Like · Follow Post · August 10 at 6:45pm
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  Grant McGuire · Top Commenter · Western Connecticut State University

  Wasn't the Northeast supposed to warm up in mid-August?

  Reply · Like · Follow Post · August 10 at 12:47pm