By Brian Edwards, Meteorologist
August 11,2014; 9:30PM,EDT
Even though it's been cooler than average in many locations, AccuWeather.com meteorologists are still expecting a stretch of above-normal warmth across the Midwest and East during the latter part of August.
Why Has It Been Cool and Wet in the East, Midwest?
According to AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Mark Paquette, "The Midwest and the East have experienced an unusually large amount of strong cold frontal passages which have been able to track deep into the South."
These fronts have brought plenty of thunderstorm activity to these areas, which has sent rainfall well above normal in many locations.
Since June 1, Minneapolis, Minnesota; Chicago, Illinois; and Omaha, Nebraska, have experienced around 150 percent of their average rainfall.
Another feature that our meteorologists monitor is called the "Bermuda High", which has been displaced farther east as compared to normal.
The Bermuda High is a semi-permanent area of high pressure, generally centered near Bermuda in the spring and summer. When it becomes displaced farther east, it isn't able to send warmth from the tropics northward into the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Temperature Departures (Fahrenheit) From 6/1 to 8/10
As the second half of August approaches, we're just under three weeks away from the end of what we call meteorological summer (June through August).
We can look back on the summer so far and see that many of the same locations mentioned above have seen few 90-degree days as compared to normal.
Much of the Midwest and East experiences their greatest concentration of 90-degree days during the month of July and with the cool, wet pattern that occurred, most cities are running below average in terms of 90-degree days.
Lack of 90-Degree Days in US Summer 2014
Lack of 90-Degree Days in US Summer 2014
"Almost
every major city from the Plains to the East is running a deficit, and
in some cases a major deficit, in the amount of 90+ degree days so far
this summer."
AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Mark Paquette
Above-Normal Warmth on the Way?
A wet weather pattern will persist across much of the East during the first part of this week. There is even a threat for widespread flash flooding. Behind this flash flood potential, cooler, below-average air will slide from the Midwest into the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, keeping the warm weather confined to the Deep South for now.
According to the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team, the Bermuda High will help to bring much warmer air from the central Plains to the East with the highest above-normal departures from the Ohio Valley to the interior Northeast. This is expected to begin around Aug. 20.
Some cities, like New York City, could end up as much as 10 degrees above normal during the stretch of days from Aug. 20-23. Keeping in mind that NYC's normal high is in the lower 80s, departures to this magnitude could mean a several-day stretch of 90-degree weather.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists will continue to monitor the potential for a significant warmup over the next few weeks.
On Social Media
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@MyDesert @tturner1234 Yes, the ongoing contrast this year between western heat/drought and central/eastern cool/wet has been quite dramatic
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Central, Eastern US: Summer Heat, 90-Degree Days Stay Away This Week - prepperpodcast.com/central-easter… pic.twitter.com/jaSa3Jitxu
- William Smith · Top Commenter · Inventory at Rem BarYeah, who's complaining? I hate summers that are too hot, so this summer was just right. Puts a little crimp in the sails of all those "global warming", I mean "climate change" (to make it sound more believable), believers.
- John Dettinger · Follow · Top Commenter · Team Member/Cashier at Papa John's PizzaWhose complaining? I never thought I'd see a summer in which we could have our windows open in July or August or seeing VERY spectacular weekends like we've been having.
- Brian Edwards · State College, PennsylvaniaGrant, our forecast is updated several times a day and certain forecast models will show differences in the longer range. One run this morning was a bit more pessimistic in the NYC area. However, our AccuWeather.com Long Range team is not expecting that to be the case during that entire stretch of days and continues to forecast a stretch of above normal temperatures beginning around the 20th.
- Brian Edwards · State College, PennsylvaniaYou can click between bar graphs with the selection area above the graph. The first graph is actual number of 90-degree days so far in 2014. I just added the word "Actual" to make it more clear. The second graph is the average number of 90-degree days in a given year through August 10th. Hope that helps!
- Michael Capalbo · Top Commenter · Johns Hopkins UniversityI can't follow the graph you posted. Does each vertical bar represent the actual number of 90 degree days so far for the corresponding city or the expected number of 90-degree days so far? (You say you posted both the average and the expected but I am not seeing it.)
- Grant McGuire · Top Commenter · Western Connecticut State UniversityUh, the NYC forecast shows Aug 20-23 being a complete washout. An explanation?
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