Has Summer Heat Come to an End?

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

July 26,2013; 9:35PM,EDT

 

 

 

A recent push of autumnlike air from the Midwest to the East and part of the South has some folks wondering if the sun has yielded its last stretch of summer heat.
Regardless of how temperatures behave, summer does not officially end until Sept. 22. Meteorological summer comes to a close in early September, and solar summer winds down in early August.

Meteorological summer is statistically the hottest quarter of the year. Solar summer is the quarter of the year where the sun's energy is the greatest and daylight is the longest.

However, what does the weather in August have in store based on seasonal changes, meshed with the month's unique forecast weather patterns? Will the back-and-forth extremes continue in the Midwest and Northeast? Will the heat and drought continue in the West?
Our long-range forecasting experts, headed by Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, "summarize" below:

"Cool weather will continue in the Northeast into the first week of August," Pastelok said, "But, hot and humid weather is likely to return during weeks two and three."
That will mean plenty of good days at the beach and in the mountains through the end of the month.

A lower sun angle and lengthening nights may take the edge off the heat somewhat, so that it may not feel quite as extreme as the mid-July heat wave.
AccuWeather.com RealFeel® temperatures peaked well above 100 degrees in many areas for multiple days. In some cases, it felt hotter than 110 degrees. For cool weather lovers and those in poor health, the nights were unbearable without air conditioning.
The re-building warmth toward mid-August will likely bring another surge in energy demands.

According to Chris Olert with New York City's main energy supplier, ConEdison went from record usage of 13,332 megawatts during the peak of the heat wave on Friday, July 19, 2013, to much more typical usage of 10,000 to 11,000 megawatts during the cooler, less humid weather Tuesday and Wednesday this week.

In New York City, energy demand was generally higher at night during the heat wave than when it was most days this week. While longer nights during August may counteract some of the energy demand later this month, a return of high humidity may still make the nights warmer than average.
"The northern and central Plains to the Midwest have a chance at significant, persistent cool weather during August," Pastelok said, "Position and magnitude of a southward dip in steering winds will determine how extensive that cool pocket is for the Midwest and if it could continue to reach part of the Northeast or back off."

The recent cool weather made a big difference in energy demands at Chicago's ComEd. While no record usage was set during the mid-July heat wave, demand peaked at 22,269 megawatts on Thursday, July 18, 2013. This, compared to much lower peak usage of 15,900 megawatts during the first four days this week.

The Southeast can expect an extension of the mild June and and July conditions into August.

According to Brian Green, spokesman for Georgia Power, the utility company has not come close to their record demand, because of the mild conditions this summer.

"Much of the Southeast will remain generally wet with temperatures averaging near to slightly cooler than normal, but there may not be as many days with rain from the Gulf Coast to New England, compared to earlier in the summer," Pastelok stated.
RELATED:
AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center
Get Detailed Severe Weather Data: Free Trial of AccuWeather Premium
Dorian to Reach Near Leewards Sunday; Puerto Rico, Bahamas Next Week
According to Long-Range Meteorologist Mark Paquette, "Dorian is one possible system to watch for rainfall impact in the Southeast, but with high pressure set up the way we think it will be during August, the door is open for a Gulf of Mexico tropical system impact during the month."
In much of the West, heat will fire up toward the middle of the month causing demands for energy to rise.
Look for showers and thunderstorms affecting the Southwest to expand northward toward the northern Rockies and Snake River Basin during August.
According to Western Weather Expert Ken Clark, "The monsoon showers and thunderstorms will continue to make some small dents in the drought, but only at a very local level and not for a long-term perspective."

"Later in the month, we expect the isolated downpours to begin to diminish in the Southwest," Pastelok added, "But central and coastal Texas may begin to receive showers and storms more often."
Much of California will be dry, except for spotty storms mainly over the Sierra Nevada.
As a result of the diminishing showers and thunderstorms in the Southwest, as well as drying vegetation, the threat of wildfires will continue.
"In the Northwest, the dry weather may wind down a little earlier earlier than average with the chance of some coastal rainfall later in the month," according to Pastelok.
So, is summer over?
Even in parts of the Midwest, where cool air may be a frequent visitor, there will still be some warm days. In the South, temperature departures will be so slight that there will be plenty of sufficiently warm days to call it summer. The Northeast will experience a return of heat and humidity. Plenty of hot weather is in store for the West with the cool spots being the high country and the immediate Pacific coast.
Balancing out the extent of temperature extremes, the heavily populated Northeast and its thirst for keeping cool may drive energy demands through much of August.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in 2012, about 68 percent of the electricity generated in the nation was from fossil fuels (coal, natural gas and petroleum).