Dorian Downpours, Potential Flooding in South Florida

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

July 30,2013; 9:12PM,EDT

 

 

While Dorian is likely to remain disorganized, disruptive downpours will continue to spread northwestward from the Bahamas to South Florida into the end of the week.
In most cases, Dorian's impact will be an unwanted downpour or brief squall, but for a few locations, it could be more significant.
Dorian is essentially a tropical wave, or a very weak tropical disturbance at this time, but it still poses travel disruptions and perhaps occasional risks to lives and property.

People in the path of Dorian should continue to monitor the system, especially from the standpoint of enhanced rainfall, possible flooding and locally gusty thunderstorms.
Popular cruise stops in Nassau and Freeport, Bahamas, bathers and sun worshipers at Miami Beach and people vacationing in Orlando could face some disruptions. Locally gusty storms could cause delays at the airports in Miami, Tampa and Orlando and along I-75, I-95 and the Florida Turnpike.

During Tuesday, locally drenching showers and gusty thunderstorms will affect parts of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southern Bahamas and western Cuba. During Wednesday into Thursday, areas likely to be impacted the most from Dorian would be the central and southern Bahamas to central Cuba.
From late Thursday into Saturday, the area from the northern Bahamas to South Florida and central and western Cuba would have the most impact from the system.

The odds are greatly against Dorian from becoming a hurricane, and it may never regain tropical storm status.
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Occasionally, the downpours associated with the struggling system can organize into something a bit more robust.
These unpredictable flare-ups of showers and thunderstorms can produce torrential rainfall and gusty winds. During such an event, several inches of rain can fall in as many hours and winds could be strong enough to down trees, power lines and cause minor property damage.
Localized torrential downpours can lead to urban and low-lying area flooding, while strong wind gusts can catch small craft operators offguard.
Rounds of tropical downpours are common in the tropics, during the summer and early autumn as weak disturbances roll along from east to west in the trade winds.

Disruptive winds at mid-levels of the atmosphere will be the main deterrent to explosive redevelopment of Dorian. The system could totally break up over or near the Florida Peninsula toward this coming weekend.