Tropical Cyclone Narelle Nears Australia

By Eric Leister, Meteorologist

January 11,2013; 9:51PM,EST

Tropical Cyclone Narelle continues to strengthen as it moves slowly to the southwest over the open waters northwest of Western Australia.
Sustained winds have reached 125 mph (201 kph), making the storm comparable to a strong Category 3 hurricane with the potential to strengthen more in the next 12-24 hours.
Narelle is currently about 300 miles north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia. This area is no stranger to very powerful tropical cyclones, as the strongest wind gust ever reported on the Australian mainland occurred here during Tropical Cyclone Vance in 1999. This peak wind was reported to be 166 mph (267 kph).
Narelle will not have the same impacts on the region as the storm will remain offshore as it passes by, resulting in the strongest winds being further off the coastline.
Even with the storm remaining offshore damaging wind gusts and torrential downpours can still affect coastal areas from Mardie to near Exmouth through Friday night before extending southward to Coral Bay by Saturday. Wind gusts at the coast are expected to reach 60 mph (100 kph).
Narelle will turn more southerly over the weekend remaining parallel to the coastline and spreading damaging winds and heavy rainfall southward to Carnarvon.
Areas along the immediate coastline should also be prepared for possible coastal flooding during high tides.
In the longer range, Narelle is expected to weaken and turn southeasterly early next week as the storm encounters more wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures.
The weakened state of the storm could approach southwest parts of Australia by Tuesday or Wednesday. The storm may, in fact, lose its tropical characteristics all together before ever reaching the southwest. By this point, the main threat would be enhanced rainfall which could affect areas from Perth southward.