Typhoon Nepartak Rapidly Intensifies to Category 4; Potentially Dangerous Threat to Parts of East Asia

July 5,2016
Typhoon Nepartak has rapidly intensified just over 900 miles east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan, and poses a dangerous threat to Taiwan, Japan's far southwest Ryukyu Islands and eastern China late this week.
Nepartak exploded from a tropical storm on July 4 to a Category 4 equivalent typhoon the following day, and may not be done strengthening yet.

Latest on Nepartak

Nepartak developed over the weekend south of Guam and strengthened into a typhoon Monday evening, and was the first named storm in the western north Pacific basin since Dec. 17, 2015, setting a new record for the longest stretch without at least a single tropical storm in the western North Pacific basin in 66 years of records (more on that below).

Forecast: Typhoon Threat For East Asia

Typhoon Nepartak is forecast to move west-northwest and then northwest around the periphery of subtropical high pressure that is in place over the western Pacific.
Exactly when and how sharp Nepartak turns toward the northwest will ultimately determine the impacts in Taiwan, Japan's far southwest Ryukyu Islands and parts of eastern China later this week.
(MORE: Catastrophic Flooding Swamps Parts of China, Pakistan)
As of this time, it's too soon to tell whether any of these areas would take a direct hit from Nepartak's core of most intense winds, or whether it would completely miss any of those areas.
Nepartak may continue to strengthen further and could become a super typhoon (maximum sustained winds at least 150 mph) soon. Short-term, hard-to-predict flucutations in intensity are common in intense tropical cyclones due to their eyewall being replaced one or more times.
For now, any impacts in Japan's far soutwest Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan would arrive Thursday into Friday, and in eastern China, those impacts could arrive late Friday into Saturday.
Of course, the severity of those impacts will depend on the exact track and strength of Nepartak at that time.
It may weaken a bit before affecting the southwest Ryukus and Taiwan, but still may be an intense tropical cyclone at its nearest pass to those areas. Nepartak is expected to be considerably weaker once it nears China, but how much weaker remains uncertain, for now.
(FORECAST: Taipei | Shanghai)

Projected Path for Nepartak

All interests from Taiwan and Japan's Ryukyu Islands to eastern China should monitor the progress of Nepartak closely. This includes Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, which for now, appears to have a low probability of experiencing the worst from Nepartak.
In addition, flooding may be a serious threat along and, potentially, some distance north and east of the path of Nepartak from Taiwan to southwest Japan.
Given this forecast is still several days away, uncertainty remains high. Check back for updates.

Record Long Streak For Western North Pacific Ends

Prior to Nepartak's formation, not a single tropical storm, much less a typhoon (the term for a hurricane in the western North Pacific Basin), had formed west of the international date line since mid-December 2015. Typically this area is the world's busiest tropical cyclone corridor.
This set a new record for the longest stretch without at least a single tropical storm in the western North Pacific basin in 66 years of records, according to Colorado State University tropical scientist Dr. Phil Klotzbach.

Longest Northwest Pacific Stretches Without a Single Tropical Storm
(Source: Joint Typhoon Warning Center archive)

Start, End Dates	Consecutive Days
Dec. 17, 2015 - July 3, 2016	200
Dec. 15, 1972 - June 30, 1973	198
Dec. 22, 1997 - July 7, 1998	198

This first six months of 2016 have been completely opposite from what we saw last year.
By the end of June 2015, there had already been nine tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific basin, including three super typhoons of Category 5 equivalent intensity.
Klotzbach also said Nepartak was the second latest first named northwest Pacific storm of the season on record, behind the record-late July 8, 1998's Tropical Storm Nichole.

PHOTOS: Typhoon Melor (December 2015)