Severe Thunderstorms with Damaging Winds Threaten the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday and Monday

Tom Moore
Published: July 9,2016
Severe thunderstorms, primarily with damaging winds and large hail, are expected to hit the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday and Monday. A few tornadoes are also possible.
These storms could bring damaging winds and large hail, and the threat of a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
(MORE: National Interactive Radar Map | Differences Between a Watch and a Warning)

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

Severe Weather Forecast

Sunday

• Forecast: The potential for severe thunderstorms will stretch from parts of eastern Montana into the Dakotas and Minnesota.
• Threats: Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats, but a few tornadoes are also possible.
• Cities: Glasgow, Montana | Bismarck, North Dakota | Rapid City, South Dakota | Fargo, North Dakota

Sunday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Monday

• Forecast: The potential for severe thunderstorms shifts eastward and will stretch from the eastern Dakotas to Minnesota and back to northwest Iowa, eastern Nebraska and northern Kansas.
• Threats: Damaging winds and large hail can be expected, and a few tornadoes are possible.
• Cities: Grand Forks, North Dakota | Sioux Falls, South Dakota | Omaha, Nebraska | Duluth, Minnesota | Minneapolis

Monday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Setup For Severe Weather

An exaggerated jet stream pattern will set the stage for severe weather to develop on Sunday. A significant cold trough of low pressure (dip in the jet stream) will slide eastward from the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, a very warm high-pressure ridge (bulge in the jet stream) will prevail up through the Great Lakes.

Jet Stream Forecast Monday (GFS Model)

The area between these two prominent features will be favorable for severe thunderstorm development, as a southerly wind flow transports moisture northward. On Sunday, severe weather is most likely in the northern Plains, and on Monday, the trough pushes eastward and the severe threat will shift to the Upper Midwest.
By Tuesday, the trough will weaken so severe weather will likely be spotty across the Great Lakes region.

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