Friday, January 1, 2016

Series of Storms to Bring Plenty of Rain, Snow to California

January 1,2016
The next series of storms to impact the West Coast will be a bit different than what the region has experienced in recent months. This go around, a large portion of California, right down to the southern coast, can expect a decent helping of much needed rain.
For the Cascades and Sierra, expect hefty amounts of snow to pile up into the coming week. Here, the snow has been seemingly adding up all season, leading to a snowpack that is much more substantial than at the same point last year.
According to winter weather expert Tom Niziol, through Dec. 30, 2015, the Sierra snowpack was at 105 percent of normal for the season, compared to just 50 percent through the same date in 2014.

Stormy Pattern Next Week
A dip in the jet stream across the eastern North Pacific will work to direct this next parade of storm systems into the West Coast, this time a bit further south, pointing directly at the state of California.
Here's a look at what you can expect.

Round 1: Sunday - Monday

An initial area of low pressure will swing a frontal boundary toward the California coast late in the day on Sunday. Though relatively light, rain showers are likely from western Oregon, down through the northern coast of California.
(Forecast: Crescent City | Eugene, Oregon | Eureka)
Some snow, generally light, will also work into the Cascades from Oregon to northern California, and into the Sierra.
Gusty winds can also be expected along the coastline, but unlike previous powerhouse storms in November and December, damaging winds are not a big concern.

Monday's Forecast
Into Monday morning, the moisture will be focused across California, with scattered showers reaching the central to southern coast. Even locations such as Los Angeles can expect at least some rain early in the morning.
Through the day on Monday, as low pressure moves toward the Golden State, areas of rain should dot the southern half of the state, progressing eastward through the Desert Southwest. Expect valley rain and mountain snow into parts of Arizona, southern Nevada, western New Mexico and southern Utah.

Round 2: Tuesday

As quickly as the first system fades away, a somewhat stronger storm still is forecast to race toward the West Coast. With this storm appearing more robust, stronger winds and heavier precipitation are anticipated, especially near the coast.

Tuesday's Forecast
Rain reaches the California coast by mid to late morning and rapidly inches inland. Some of the rain may be locally heavy, particularly in locations that need it the most, across central California. Here, exceptional drought conditions continue, but modest dents in the long-term rainfall deficits are likely.
(Forecast: Redding | San Francisco)
Across the Sierra and mountains of Northern California, heavy snow appears likely with the potential for a foot or more of accumulation in some spots by Tuesday night. A bit of the rain and snow may make it as far east as northern Arizona, Nevada, Idaho and Utah.

Wednesday - Thursday

Computer model forecasts differ somewhat into the middle of next week, but there are indications that two more rounds of wet (and snowy) weather will impact the West Coast.

Wednesday's Forecast
As colder air is projected with these later systems, snow levels are expected to lower. This could result in locally heavy snow as far south as the Santa Ana Mountains and some of the interior valleys of central to Northern California.
Additional snowfall is also likely across much of the Intermountain West through Thursday with some of that moisture likely reaching the Rockies as well.
(Forecast: Boise | Lake Tahoe)
By this time, 1 to 2 feet of snow will be possible across portions of the Cascades and much of the Sierra. Heavy snow in excess of 6 inches is possible across some of the higher elevations of northern Arizona and southern Utah.

Forecast Rain and Snow Through Thursday
For rainfall, widespread 1- to 2- inch amounts should be common across much of California, although there may be somewhat lower amounts across the deserts of Southern California. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, if not more, is possible from the coastal ranges of Northern California to as far south as the San Francisco Bay area.
It is too early to say if the locally heavy rain will trigger flash flooding. Given the fact that rain will be spread out over the course of the week and that drought conditions continue, it appears that any flooding would likely be short-fuse and fairly isolated.
Since this is a complex setup with multiple storm systems expected to impact the region, continue to check back with weather.com for the latest information.
MORE: Seven Wonders of California

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