Friday, January 1, 2016

Frigid air with highs below freezing to shock central, eastern US during January 2016

By , AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist
January 1,2016; 9:18PM,EST
 
 
Much colder weather is in store across the central and eastern United States during January 2016, following months of warmth with record-challenging temperatures.
Warm air recently pushed toward the North Pole. As a balancing act, colder air will be forced farther to the south.
While much colder weather is on the way, it will stop well short of January 2015, when winter broke loose in most areas. Temperatures averaged 10-20 degrees Fahrenheit below normal with highs in the single digits, teens and 20s over the Northern states.
AccuWeather Chief Long Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok does not anticipate that to happen to that extreme this year.
Waves of giant snowballs slam against the shoreline of a New England lake
"We do not expect a big displacement of the polar vortex at this time, but rather waves of arctic air that roll southeastward and interact with less cold air over the U.S. during January," Pastelok said.
First blast of cold to roll through Jan. 3-5
One small piece of arctic air will move southward from central Canada and across the Great Lakes and Northeast spanning Sunday to Tuesday.

"This air will be the coldest of the season thus far, which might not seem like much on paper, but it will deliver significantly low temperatures," Pastelok said.
High temperatures will be held to the teens F in upstate New York and northern New England. Temperatures may be held to the 20s in Detroit and Boston and the 30s in New York City. Low temperatures are likely to dip below zero in part of upstate New York and northern New England.
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The arctic cold shot could deliver the first snowflakes of the season to parts of the mid-Atlantic that have not yet had flurries.
Brief warm spell expected before cold returns Jan. 11-18
During the latter part of the first week of January into the second weekend of the month, the cold air will ease up over much of the Central and Eastern states.
"Temperatures will again trend above average in many areas, but will stop well short of record high levels," Pastelok said.
Highs will generally range from the 30s in the northern tier to the 60s over the interior South.
Prior to the middle of the month, colder air will sweep eastward from the Central states, following one or two storms that can bring snow and ice to parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians to New England, mainly away from the Atlantic coast.

"The slow-moving storm spanning Jan. 10-12 is the one that could pack the most punch in terms of wintry precipitation and widespread cold to follow," Pastelok said.
The cold will add to hardship in the recent aftermath of record flooding over the middle Mississippi Valley.
During the middle of the month, cities from Kansas City, Missouri, and St. Louis to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh may have multiple days where temperatures fail to climb past the freezing mark. High temperatures may be within a few degrees of freezing in New York City and Philadelphia.
In the South, multiple days with highs in the 40s are likely from Little Rock, Arkansas, to Atlanta and Richmond, Virginia are likely during the middle of the month.
Scenarios: Will the polar vortex usher in cold for late January?
On one hand, waves of cold air may get more intense from the North Central states to the East. On the other hand, the cold air may ease up during the latter part of the month.
Pastelok stated that he and his team of long-range meteorologists are leaning toward a scenario with continued back-and-forth cold and mild episodes, where milder Pacific air will blend in with the cold resulting in less harsh conditions for much of the Eastern states after Jan. 18.
However, cold air is likely to be persistent in the North Central states and continue in waves into northern New England due to established snowcover.
"We will have to watch the position of the polar vortex toward the middle of the month," Pastelok said. "There is a chance the vortex splits and sends one batch of intense cold toward Europe and the other batch toward North America during the latter part of January."
Pastelok's crew still anticipate a stormy February along the Pacific, Gulf and Atlantic coasts with enough cold air to bring the potential for multiple snow and ice events in the Northeast.
 
Kevin Kilby
Amazing how weather reporting is always slamming, shocking, blasting, invading, epic, biblical, apocalyptic, destructive , etc, in order to get a fearful reaction out of people it dont effect!!!!!........ It like the regular news always shock and disgusting......oh well!!!!
Like · Reply · 3 · 1 hr
Neven Prvinic ·
I did notice that our Monday Jan 4th keeps getting colder every time i look at the forecast. The latest puts it at high of 28 low at 15, which wold make it the first sub freezing high this winter here in northeast Ohio, and the coldest since March 2015. Also our late next week "warm up" of original 45-50F has now been trimmed to 40-45F
Cory Morrison ·
I started noticing this yesterday, and was disappointed. I am hoping that we do not get any big snowfalls, so the cold that does come will not be particularly severe.
Like · Reply · 2 · 2 hrs
Kevin Kilby
I feel for you folks in Cleveland given the proximity to the great lakes, too cold for me......!!!!!
Like · Reply · 1 hr
Neven Prvinic ·
Kevin Kilby we dont mind it as long as it turns out close to normall overall. We know cold spells loke this are normal most winters, we just do not want to repeat of last 2 winters.
Like · Reply · 1 · 30 mins
Joseph Miller
It's winter ,it gets cold,we go thru this every year,no big deal?
Like · Reply · 4 · 6 hrs
Bill Ross ·
correct, a winter without a cold snap is like a summer without a heat wave...like in 2014....oops ...wait a minute, 2014 didn't have a summer.
Like · Reply · 2 · 1 hr
Sarah Leggs
I hate the prospect of a polar vortex...........cold weather just sucks!
Like · Reply · 6 · 7 hrs
George Greene ·
Works at TopShelf Oldies
Absolutely right..snow and cold suck
Like · Reply · 3 · 6 hrs
Michael P. Nepa ·
George Greene I love the cold and snow and what is wrong with that. It doesn't bother me one bit. I agree that it is winter and it gets cold and snowy every year and so what. It is no big deal to me.
Like · Reply · 3 · 5 hrs
Sarah Leggs
ummmmm cold and snow are terrible, because it's uncomfortable, and our recreational activities are limited because of the stupid cold and snow, thats whats wrong with it.
Like · Reply · 1 · 4 hrs
Sarah Leggs
most people like it warm.........its human nature since we are warm blooded creatures.........
Like · Reply · 5 · 3 hrs
George Greene ·
Works at TopShelf Oldies
Michael P. Nepa weather preferences are in the eye of the beholder. Some like it cold and some like it warm
Like · Reply · 1 · 3 hrs
Kenneth Steward ·
George Greene If you do not like the cold and snow then maybe you should move to someplace a little warmer.
Like · Reply · 2 hrs
Kenneth Steward ·
Sarah Leggs You may be a warm blooded creature but I am a cold blooded Ranger that loves the snow and cold.
Like · Reply · 2 hrs
Neill Peterson ·
Sarah Leggs Oh Sarah, the essence of being warm-blooded is the ability to adapt to a wide range of temperatures. Has NOTHING to do with our preferences.
Like · Reply · 2 hrs
Cory Morrison ·
Kenneth Steward, if every single person in the North who is not a huge fan of cold weather moved south, then the South would be overpopulated. What George simply wants is near or above normal temperatures respective to their time of years. He is not necessarily asking for it to be above 80F year round.
Like · Reply · 2 · 2 hrs
George Greene ·
Works at TopShelf Oldies
Kenneth Steward it's not that easy for most of us to give up a job or move far from friends and family
So its always nice to enjoy winter at home without 4 layers of clothes or driving on snowy highways
Like · Reply · 1 · 2 hrs
Joseph Graziose
Cory Morrison
Like · Reply · 1 hr
Joseph Graziose
it seems like Cory and I are constantlly repeating ourselves to the winter lovers...yeah, I can't wait to shovel precip, scrape ice from the windchill, pay a fortune to heat my residence, dry sinus, electric shocks when I touch things, and get up in the middle of the night to see if my storm door opens so I am not trapped---discontent does not describe it...
Like · Reply · 1 · 1 hr
Michael Croune ·
We won't see 30-68 inches of snow this year. We are in El Nino. If we get twenty inches, total, we will be lucky.
Like · Reply · 1 · 7 hrs
Sarah Leggs
Thats a good thing!!!!!!!!!!
Like · Reply · 3 · 7 hrs
Bill Ross ·
as Pete Carroll said at the end of Superbowl XLIX: "oh no! no! no!"
Like · Reply · 1 · 9 hrs
Sunny Grauer-Young
general statements like , " East Coast" is so misleading. It's a damn long coast, sir, and here in SC. we will not see avg. winter temps for more than a few days at most. NC is about normal for the days you've mentioned, and so is VA. that's HALF the east coast. My suggestion is try to be a bit more specific, at least in your report. thanks.
Nick DiPalma ·
Im in Buffalo, NY wishing and hoping for lots of snow storms!
Like · Reply · 2 · 10 hrs
Cory Morrison ·
Was November 2014 enough for you?
Like · Reply · 3 · 9 hrs
Nick DiPalma ·
Cory Morrison Hahaha, it was a lot for sure but going through the snow drought right now
Like · Reply · 8 hrs
Aaron Ginther ·
I don't see how multiple days with highs in the 40's is cold for Richmond. The average high there is in the 40's, so that's normal. The average high in Richmond in January is a couple of degrees higher than Philadelphia. But for Atlanta where their average highs are in the 50's, multiple days in the 40's would be colder than normal for them.

It's in the 40's right now, and this is initially before any cold air has moved in. On Monday and Tuesday next week highs will be held in the mid 30's with lows tumbling down to around 20, and maybe even the teens. If it's in the 40's in central Virginia.. that isn't arctic air in nature. That's just at average for the time of year. The warm up is when we moderate to the upper 40's.
Like · Reply · 3 · 8 hrs · Edited
Alex Sosnowski ·
Yes greater departures from average in the South, compared to the Northern states. However, after temperatures in the 50s, 60s and 70s, much of the month in December around Richmond, it will feel cold and some days will be lower than 40s.
Like · Reply · 3 · 8 hrs
Aaron Ginther ·
Thanks. I definitely see where you're coming from. I just didn't know exactly what it was trying to say, whether we'd literally be at average or colder than normal. Living in central VA, I've never put myself in the same category as states like Georgia and Arkansas lol. I'm west of Richmond, and about an hour and a half drive from DC.
Like · Reply · 1 · 8 hrs
Wayne Langhuber ·
Alex Sosnowski Do you think the Jan 11-12 event will bring snow to Lancaster county Pa or is a mixed precip/rain event more likely. I am guessing temps after Jan 12 will be on average a departure of 5 degrees below normal?
Like · Reply · 1 · 7 hrs
Alex Sosnowski ·
Wayne Langhuber Well I think there's mixed precip during the Jan. 9-10 event. Could there be some mixing with the Jan 11-12 event, sure, but I looks like a storm that transitions colder, rather than warmer to me. Guess if you want snow, you have to wonder if it doesn't roll so far underneath that it just gets colder where you are and precip occurs on the coast or to your south.
Like · Reply · 7 hrs · Edited
Alex Sosnowski ·
Aaron Ginther Its a broad brush article that covers thousands of square miles to convey a general message. Could easily have dozens of different stories on the same subject depending on your location.
Like · Reply · 7 hrs
Cory Morrison ·
Alex Sosnowski for Southern Ontario in the GL region (Toronto area), I would expect January to average close to normal for temperature overall. Your thoughts?
Like · Reply · 2 hrs

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