By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist
January 1,2016; 9:18PM,EST
Much colder weather is in store across the central and eastern United States during January 2016, following months of warmth with record-challenging temperatures.
Warm air recently pushed toward the North Pole. As a balancing act, colder air will be forced farther to the south.
While much colder weather is on the way, it will stop well short of January 2015, when winter broke loose in most areas. Temperatures averaged 10-20 degrees Fahrenheit below normal with highs in the single digits, teens and 20s over the Northern states.
AccuWeather Chief Long Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok does not anticipate that to happen to that extreme this year.
First blast of cold to roll through Jan. 3-5
One small piece of arctic air will move southward from central Canada and across the Great Lakes and Northeast spanning Sunday to Tuesday.
"This air will be the coldest of the season thus far, which might not seem like much on paper, but it will deliver significantly low temperatures," Pastelok said.
High temperatures will be held to the teens F in upstate New York and northern New England. Temperatures may be held to the 20s in Detroit and Boston and the 30s in New York City. Low temperatures are likely to dip below zero in part of upstate New York and northern New England.
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The arctic cold shot could deliver the first snowflakes of the season to parts of the mid-Atlantic that have not yet had flurries.
Brief warm spell expected before cold returns Jan. 11-18
During the latter part of the first week of January into the second weekend of the month, the cold air will ease up over much of the Central and Eastern states.
"Temperatures will again trend above average in many areas, but will stop well short of record high levels," Pastelok said.
Highs will generally range from the 30s in the northern tier to the 60s over the interior South.
Prior to the middle of the month, colder air will sweep eastward from the Central states, following one or two storms that can bring snow and ice to parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians to New England, mainly away from the Atlantic coast.
"The slow-moving storm spanning Jan. 10-12 is the one that could pack the most punch in terms of wintry precipitation and widespread cold to follow," Pastelok said.
The cold will add to hardship in the recent aftermath of record flooding over the middle Mississippi Valley.
During the middle of the month, cities from Kansas City, Missouri, and St. Louis to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh may have multiple days where temperatures fail to climb past the freezing mark. High temperatures may be within a few degrees of freezing in New York City and Philadelphia.
In the South, multiple days with highs in the 40s are likely from Little Rock, Arkansas, to Atlanta and Richmond, Virginia are likely during the middle of the month.
Scenarios: Will the polar vortex usher in cold for late January?
On one hand, waves of cold air may get more intense from the North Central states to the East. On the other hand, the cold air may ease up during the latter part of the month.
Pastelok stated that he and his team of long-range meteorologists are leaning toward a scenario with continued back-and-forth cold and mild episodes, where milder Pacific air will blend in with the cold resulting in less harsh conditions for much of the Eastern states after Jan. 18.
However, cold air is likely to be persistent in the North Central states and continue in waves into northern New England due to established snowcover.
"We will have to watch the position of the polar vortex toward the middle of the month," Pastelok said. "There is a chance the vortex splits and sends one batch of intense cold toward Europe and the other batch toward North America during the latter part of January."
Pastelok's crew still anticipate a stormy February along the Pacific, Gulf and Atlantic coasts with enough cold air to bring the potential for multiple snow and ice events in the Northeast.
Kevin Kilby
Amazing
how weather reporting is always slamming, shocking, blasting, invading,
epic, biblical, apocalyptic, destructive , etc, in order to get a
fearful reaction out of people it dont effect!!!!!........ It like the
regular news always shock and disgusting......oh well!!!!
Neven Prvinic ·
I
did notice that our Monday Jan 4th keeps getting colder every time i
look at the forecast. The latest puts it at high of 28 low at 15, which
wold make it the first sub freezing high this winter here in northeast
Ohio, and the coldest since March 2015. Also our late next week "warm
up" of original 45-50F has now been trimmed to 40-45F
Cory Morrison ·
I
started noticing this yesterday, and was disappointed. I am hoping that
we do not get any big snowfalls, so the cold that does come will not be
particularly severe.
Kevin Kilby
I feel for you folks in Cleveland given the proximity to the great lakes, too cold for me......!!!!!
Neven Prvinic ·
Kevin
Kilby we dont mind it as long as it turns out close to normall overall.
We know cold spells loke this are normal most winters, we just do not
want to repeat of last 2 winters.
Joseph Miller
It's winter ,it gets cold,we go thru this every year,no big deal?
Bill Ross ·
correct,
a winter without a cold snap is like a summer without a heat
wave...like in 2014....oops ...wait a minute, 2014 didn't have a summer.
Sarah Leggs
I hate the prospect of a polar vortex...........cold weather just sucks!
George Greene ·
Works at TopShelf Oldies
Absolutely right..snow and cold suck
Michael P. Nepa ·
George
Greene I love the cold and snow and what is wrong with that. It doesn't
bother me one bit. I agree that it is winter and it gets cold and snowy
every year and so what. It is no big deal to me.
Sarah Leggs
ummmmm
cold and snow are terrible, because it's uncomfortable, and our
recreational activities are limited because of the stupid cold and snow,
thats whats wrong with it.
Sarah Leggs
most people like it warm.........its human nature since we are warm blooded creatures.........
George Greene ·
Works at TopShelf Oldies
Michael P. Nepa weather preferences are in the eye of the beholder. Some like it cold and some like it warm
Kenneth Steward ·
Works at U.S. Army Retired
George Greene If you do not like the cold and snow then maybe you should move to someplace a little warmer.
Kenneth Steward ·
Works at U.S. Army Retired
Sarah Leggs You may be a warm blooded creature but I am a cold blooded Ranger that loves the snow and cold.
Neill Peterson ·
Sarah
Leggs Oh Sarah, the essence of being warm-blooded is the ability to
adapt to a wide range of temperatures. Has NOTHING to do with our
preferences.
Cory Morrison ·
Kenneth
Steward, if every single person in the North who is not a huge fan of
cold weather moved south, then the South would be overpopulated. What
George simply wants is near or above normal temperatures respective to
their time of years. He is not necessarily asking for it to be above 80F
year round.
George Greene ·
Works at TopShelf Oldies
Kenneth Steward it's not that easy for most of us to give up a job or move far from friends and family
So its always nice to enjoy winter at home without 4 layers of clothes or driving on snowy highways
So its always nice to enjoy winter at home without 4 layers of clothes or driving on snowy highways
Joseph Graziose
it
seems like Cory and I are constantlly repeating ourselves to the winter
lovers...yeah, I can't wait to shovel precip, scrape ice from the
windchill, pay a fortune to heat my residence, dry sinus, electric
shocks when I touch things, and get up in the middle of the night to see
if my storm door opens so I am not trapped---discontent does not
describe it...
Michael Croune ·
We won't see 30-68 inches of snow this year. We are in El Nino. If we get twenty inches, total, we will be lucky.
Brian Hampton ·
It snows in the winter time.
Bill Ross ·
as Pete Carroll said at the end of Superbowl XLIX: "oh no! no! no!"
Sunny Grauer-Young
general
statements like , " East Coast" is so misleading. It's a damn long
coast, sir, and here in SC. we will not see avg. winter temps for more
than a few days at most. NC is about normal for the days you've
mentioned, and so is VA. that's HALF the east coast. My suggestion is
try to be a bit more specific, at least in your report. thanks.
Nick DiPalma ·
Im in Buffalo, NY wishing and hoping for lots of snow storms!
Cory Morrison ·
Was November 2014 enough for you?
Nick DiPalma ·
Cory Morrison Hahaha, it was a lot for sure but going through the snow drought right now
I
don't see how multiple days with highs in the 40's is cold for
Richmond. The average high there is in the 40's, so that's normal. The
average high in Richmond in January is a couple of degrees higher than
Philadelphia. But for Atlanta where their average highs are in the 50's,
multiple days in the 40's would be colder than normal for them.
It's in the 40's right now, and this is initially before any cold air has moved in. On Monday and Tuesday next week highs will be held in the mid 30's with lows tumbling down to around 20, and maybe even the teens. If it's in the 40's in central Virginia.. that isn't arctic air in nature. That's just at average for the time of year. The warm up is when we moderate to the upper 40's.
It's in the 40's right now, and this is initially before any cold air has moved in. On Monday and Tuesday next week highs will be held in the mid 30's with lows tumbling down to around 20, and maybe even the teens. If it's in the 40's in central Virginia.. that isn't arctic air in nature. That's just at average for the time of year. The warm up is when we moderate to the upper 40's.
Alex Sosnowski ·
Yes
greater departures from average in the South, compared to the Northern
states. However, after temperatures in the 50s, 60s and 70s, much of the
month in December around Richmond, it will feel cold and some days will
be lower than 40s.
Aaron Ginther ·
Thanks.
I definitely see where you're coming from. I just didn't know exactly
what it was trying to say, whether we'd literally be at average or
colder than normal. Living in central VA, I've never put myself in the
same category as states like Georgia and Arkansas lol. I'm west of
Richmond, and about an hour and a half drive from DC.
Wayne Langhuber ·
Alex
Sosnowski Do you think the Jan 11-12 event will bring snow to Lancaster
county Pa or is a mixed precip/rain event more likely. I am guessing
temps after Jan 12 will be on average a departure of 5 degrees below
normal?
Alex Sosnowski ·
Wayne
Langhuber Well I think there's mixed precip during the Jan. 9-10 event.
Could there be some mixing with the Jan 11-12 event, sure, but I looks
like a storm that transitions colder, rather than warmer to me. Guess if
you want snow, you have to wonder if it doesn't roll so far underneath
that it just gets colder where you are and precip occurs on the coast or
to your south.
Alex Sosnowski ·
Aaron Ginther
Its a broad brush article that covers thousands of square miles to
convey a general message. Could easily have dozens of different stories
on the same subject depending on your location.
Alex Sosnowski
for Southern Ontario in the GL region (Toronto area), I would expect
January to average close to normal for temperature overall. Your
thoughts?
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