By Brett Rathbun, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist
December 9,2015; 7:43PM,EST
Progressively milder air will surge across the eastern United States through this weekend, continuing to keep winterlike air at bay.
While the mildest air will hold off until this weekend, much of this week will be mostly rain-free with high temperatures above normal.
High temperatures through Friday will average between 5 and 10 degrees above average for the second week of December.
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The only potential travel problem will be areas of dense fog during the morning hours that may linger into the middle of the day. The fog will be most common west of Interstate 95.
A couple weak storm systems will pass across the Midwest and Northeast during the week with only spotty showers.
Conditions will be fantastic for anyone still needing to head to a local farm and purchase a Christmas tree or to hang holiday decorations outside your home.
"The pattern won't just be mild this week, but getting progressively milder into the weekend," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg said.
By this weekend, the jet stream will lift to the north into southern Canada allowing warm air to build across the eastern U.S. from the Gulf of Mexico and the southern Plains.
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The jet stream is a narrow band of strong winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere that help to separate the milder air to the south and the cooler air to the north.
Temperatures will be between 10 and 30 degrees above normal this weekend from the Midwest to the Northeast and interior South.
High temperatures by Saturday will be from the 40s Fahrenheit across northern New England to the 50s from southern New England into Michigan, 60s across the mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley and 70s across the Gulf Coast states.
Records will be challenged across a large portion of the East this weekend including New York City, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., Indianapolis, Detroit, Nashville and Louisville, Kentucky.
Temperatures in parts of the East could challenge records established as far back as the middle 1800s during the weekend.
"To put into perspective how mild it will be, overnight low temperatures will be higher than the average daytime high temperature for this time of year," AccuWeather Meteorologist Michael Doll said.
These temperatures are more common during the middle of October rather than the second full week of December.
The weekend burst of warmth will be short-lived as a storm lashes the Central states with flooding, severe weather and snow. The storm will push a swath of chillier air eastward during early next week.
Snow lovers may have to wait until the new year for any significant snow across the eastern U.S. El Niño is to blame for the lack of snow.
While the month of November ended as one of the warmest months on record for many cities across the East, the same could happen in December.
William Smith ·
This
has got to be the warmest autumn on record around here in the NYC area.
It's been "hot", practically every day since August 1 around here. I'd
say since then about 80 or 90% of the highs have been above normal,from
90's when it's supposed to be 80's in August to 60's when it's supposed
to be around 50 in most of November. But really,you can't judge the
weather in November and December for how the winter will play out. I
can't tell you how many years I can remember here in the NYC area,when
it'd be bitterly cold in November and December but from January on,it's
warm and we get very little snow for the winter and other years,like
last year and looks like this year,too,where it was mild or "warm", in
November and December,and even into the first week or two of January
only for us to get slammed with cold and snow and blizzards in February
and March,so you can never tell just because of how the weather is in
even December and January to how the rest of the winter will go.
Ellen Congleton ·
What does Christmas look like from Charleston, SC to Charlotte,NC??
Debbie Brunell
after
this dissapointing fall and almost winter temps, summer better have
temps run 10 - 15 degrees below average to make up for it!
Charleigh Bost
Speaking
of uncanny patterns....here in the Charlotte area, the El Nino of
1982-83 led to some very unusual weather. But it was not just the El
Nino...
on Christmas there was a high of 72 degrees in 1982. It snowed two days later.
While the weather went back and forth in January of 1983, what was most impressive was the fact on Feb. 6th there was a snowstorm...March 6 temps. were in the 80s....then on March 24, 1983, there were ten inches of snow. Then, snow fell from the sky on April 18th. So....despite the fact El Nino is present, cold air is more dense, more impatient, and will at some point with the low sun angle make some headway. The atmosphere has to balance.
I have studied weather and its concepts my entire life and will soon finish my degree, but I think the El Nino's power is overrated and that at some point the polar vortex will dip south, resulting in a strong northern and southern jet....leading to phasure, and a mess of massive winter storms later than typical.
on Christmas there was a high of 72 degrees in 1982. It snowed two days later.
While the weather went back and forth in January of 1983, what was most impressive was the fact on Feb. 6th there was a snowstorm...March 6 temps. were in the 80s....then on March 24, 1983, there were ten inches of snow. Then, snow fell from the sky on April 18th. So....despite the fact El Nino is present, cold air is more dense, more impatient, and will at some point with the low sun angle make some headway. The atmosphere has to balance.
I have studied weather and its concepts my entire life and will soon finish my degree, but I think the El Nino's power is overrated and that at some point the polar vortex will dip south, resulting in a strong northern and southern jet....leading to phasure, and a mess of massive winter storms later than typical.
Wayne Langhuber ·
Winters
in the Northern States,particularly the Mid Atlantic where I live tend
to be very variable. Summers tend to be much less variable. The
difference between a normal summer and the hottest summer on record
(2010) is only about 5 degrees. Winter departures from normal are
usually more.
Wayne Langhuber ·
I
remember the winter of 1989-90. We had one of the coldest Decembers on
record in Philly. It averaged 10 degrees below normal. Schuykill river
was frozen. Then Jan/Feb came and each were about 8-9 above normal.
People were flying kites in January. The the second week of March we had
a string of days in the low 80's. Remember running the A/C that week.
All I can say is that winter taught me that patterns can change and do
so abruptly. Remember the warm start to 2006/07 then in February came
the valentine's day ice storm and two weeks of below freezing temps.
Michael Carenza Jr. ·
Wayne,
Im not good at remembering years to well but that winter of 89-90 must
of been the year we had like record breaking snow and cold in December
here in CT. But when January came it turned warm and rainy washing all
the snow away like within a week and it stayed that way the rest of the
winter.
Wayne Langhuber ·
Michael
Carenza Jr. Exactly. Winter arrived the day before thanksgiving with a
six inch snowstorm. Then New Years Day came and winter suddenly ended. I
tihnk there might have been close to a 20 degree warmup from Dec 1989
to Jan 1990. Dec's average temp is 34 and we came in around 22-23.
January's average temp is 31 and we came in around 40. (Averaging
high/low). Needless to say there was no snow in January-March 1990.
Montreal Weather ·
A enormous low pressure system is expected to form over southern Alaska
and this couId have implications as to a pattern shift for the eastern part of North America. If this pans out well there just might be a white christmas after all for most of us in the eastern part of North America.
and this couId have implications as to a pattern shift for the eastern part of North America. If this pans out well there just might be a white christmas after all for most of us in the eastern part of North America.
Phil Derasmo ·
Michael,
don't get to caught up in the indexes more than 2 weeks out.
Teleconnection forecasts are not reliable more than 2 weeks out. The
models tend to default to neutral as you go further out in time
Cory Morrison ·
I find that those teleconnection forecasts change very frequently as well.
Montreal Weather ·
The
way i see this shaping up in terms of temperture for southen Quebec is a
mild december up to the first half of January,then turning normal the
second half of January. February will bring cold shots of arctic air
lasting 2 to 3 days then turing mild 2 to 3 days so overall february
will be a roller coaster month in terms of temperture swings.March will
act like March.The winter of 2016-17 will be a normal one. 2017-18 and
2018-19 will be back to back severe winters for the north east including
southern Ontario and southern Quebec.
Cory Morrison ·
What are your thoughts on the next few summers in this region? Just curious.
Montreal Weather ·
Cory
Morrison I really dont like to make predictions on summer forecasts as
they are much harder to predict then winter ones but after this el nino
wanes down the latter
part of winter and spring just remember the atmosphere still has to stabilize
to a normal pattern with so much heat , so expect normal to above normal tempertures right up to august with numerous thunderstorms this coming summer. http://www.altocumulus.ca/
part of winter and spring just remember the atmosphere still has to stabilize
to a normal pattern with so much heat , so expect normal to above normal tempertures right up to august with numerous thunderstorms this coming summer. http://www.altocumulus.ca/
Cory Morrison ·
Montreal
Weather I think a hot summer is likely in the GL if this winter is not
that cold, and if a La Nina develops like JB is predicting.
Grant McGuire ·
This is shaping up to be my favorite December ever. STILL haven't worn the heavy coat yet smile emoticon
Joseph Proto
i can top that, i have not even turn on my heat yet here in upstate ny
Grant McGuire ·
Joseph Proto That's awesome
Michael Ghighi ·
Some
signs of a pattern change showing up on the long term models as we get
closer to Christmas & New Yrs. The North Atlantic Ocillation &
Arctic Ocillation also looking to go from positive to neutral or even
slightly negative. I think we'll start seeing more winter like weather
here in the midwest before long.
Wayne Langhuber ·
I
think the East Coast will get it around second week of January probably
a week or two after the Midwest. The second half of winter is going to
be interesting.
Matthew White
I have to admit that i do like this milder weather but i'm also a winter fan and i would like to have some snow. smile emoticon
Amith Kumar ·
I think next two weeks will be challenging with warmth weather
Wayne Langhuber ·
I
think a second cold front comes through on Dec 17th and following that
we may have a cold snap. Not arctic but temps may be near-slightly below
normal for 2-3 days after that cold front. Even though the high temps
will still be 36-40 where I live I bet you it feels a heck alot colder
cause our bodies are not acclimaetd to winter cold.
Wayne Langhuber ·
Keep it coming!
Kevin Stojda ·
Move to Florida if you want warm weather in December.
Wayne Langhuber ·
Kevin
Stojda I hardly consider 50 degrees warm weather. I consider it mild
weather. These temperatures are far easier to take than last Febraury.
Cory Morrison ·
Kevin Stojda keep in mind that it is not that easy.
John D Braun ·
Wayne Langhuber North Florida is in the 60s and 70s the next week.
Wayne Langhuber ·
John
D Braun Well after this weekend warm up we will only be in the 40's.
That is quite comfortable. Personally I would love to visit Florida but
only the late fall and winter months. I am sure the humidity would not
be to my liking in July. Even the humidity we get in SE Pa can be tough
at times.
Randall Franklin ·
December
being warm is not news worthy in WV. The last cold one was 2010. That
being said, this one is, so far, exceptional. Me or my neighbor's
haven't stopped cutting grass yet and there was a lawn care truck in the
neighborhood over the weekend. I don't treat my lawn but it is as green
as those who do. Looks like it did at the start of May. This is absurd,
I remember one other year that compares to this around here, I think it
was 91 or 92. I don't have to move to Florida, it came to me.
Cory Morrison ·
Interestingly, most December's from 2000 to 2010 were quite cold in the East.
Randall Franklin ·
Cory
Morrison In my area of WV, for whatever reason December is the only
month I can't recall a double digit snowfall. I remember Oct, Nov, Jan,
Feb, Mar and Apr with big snowfalls. December is usually normal or a
little above here.
Aaron Ginther ·
The
cold Decembers here in VA were since 2000 were 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005,
2009, and 2010. The Decembers of 2004, 2007, and 2008 were near normal
all things considered.
December snowfall:
2000: 2.1"
2001: 0"
2002: 10.2"
2003: 4.4"
2004: T
2005: 4.8"...See More
December snowfall:
2000: 2.1"
2001: 0"
2002: 10.2"
2003: 4.4"
2004: T
2005: 4.8"...See More
Cory Morrison ·
Aaron Ginther interesting stats. I am kind of surprised that December 2000 only had that much snow though where you are.
Randall Franklin ·
Aaron
Ginther I will have to check back on my totals. But I do remember back
to 2006. The Decembers of 2007 and 2008 were little if any snow, 2009 we
got 18.2 inches and 2010 we got 17.4. 2006, 2011, 2012 and 2014 were
were a trace to .5 inch. 2013 was about normal which is about 6.5
inches.
Aaron Ginther ·
Cory Morrison
I was looking at December 2000 and there's a lot of missing data. When
taking a glance over at the other nearby station, there was a 3.6"
snowfall on December 20, 2000. We actually had a white Christmas that
year because not much of it had melted by Christmas Day. It was a cold
December, but apparently it wasn't that snowy.
Anders Updale ·
If this El Nino pattern were to continue into next Summer, would the Northeast be facing more humid weather by Summer 2016?
Michael Carenza Jr. ·
Record-challenging warmth sounds like a broken record at this point. It's the headline each month.
Bill Ross ·
what about last February? coldest on record
Michael Carenza Jr. ·
Bill Ross, I was not referring that far back. Last February is history.
Joshua Wade ·
Bill Ross Chances are, this February (2016) won't be anywhere near as cold as last February (2015).
Cory Morrison ·
Between November 2011-March 2012, the term was probably used even more often.
John McComas ·
It
sounds like a broken record, but few records have been broken. Since
the start of November, 2 daily warm temperature records have been set
and November ended up as the 12th warmest, as recorded by the NWS
Baltimore. By comparison, early this year we set 10 daily cold
temperature records in a 3 week period from mid February through early
March. February was the 2nd coldest and the period from January through
March was the coldest ever recorded.
Cindy Holmes LaRose ·
Wait
until February. December...not eventful where weather is concerned.
January...we might feel winter. February is going to be icy, cold, and
snowy. I don't know if you remember, but in 2015 spring was slow to
come. It wasn't really warm until mid-July. In another century, we will
probably start having summer starting in September.
Cory Morrison ·
I
agree that it may turn colder in the 2nd half of winter. However, this
does not necessarily mean that much of 2016's weather will resemble
2015's weather.
Cindy Holmes LaRose ·
Cory
Morrison Well, where I live it never gets really cold until February. I
was a kid growing up in the '70s in Connecticut. The weather wasn't
horribly cold until November. I moved to Vermont in the late '80s. It
didn't get horribly cold until January and the ice and blizzards didn't
get here until February. In late March, it was starting to show signs of
spring. In late May it was warm. The weather is not the same as it was
when I was a kid. I like it though. More people are walking, not
driving, and gas prices are going down.
Grant McGuire ·
I think the 2nd half of winter will be colder, but a typical cold. Not the tundra of the last two years.
Cory Morrison ·
What Bill Ross said, since I am sure you all know how I feel about this current pattern.
George Greene ·
Works at TopShelf Oldies
same here...really enjoying this pattern
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