By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist
December 9,2015; 7:37PM,EST
The overall pattern will favor temperatures averaging above normal in much of the central and eastern United States through at least Christmas, but the warmth will falter at times in some locations.
Those yearning for cold and snow around the holiday, may be disappointed yet again.
Despite a cold and snowy fall and winter last year in much of the Midwest and Northeast, warmth surged in before the holiday and spoiled the notion of a white Christmas for millions of people.
Highs were in the 40s F in Chicago and Buffalo, New York, the 50s in St. Louis and Burlington, Vermont, and the 60s in Oklahoma City and New York City during Christmas Day 2014.
So far this season, mild air has overwhelmed the Central and Eastern states. Temperatures have averaged several degrees above normal since October.
This overall mild pattern is expected to hold through at least the end of December and into the first part of the new year.
However, the weather may have already offered a hint at the few areas where it may be cold enough for one or more episodes of snow moving forward during the holiday season.
There has been just enough chilly air around for snow at times in parts of the central and northern Plains to the Great Lakes and northern New England. This is likely to continue.
According to AccuWeather Chief Long Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, there will be several doses of chilly air that sweep across parts of the Central and Northeastern states from the middle of December to beyond Christmas.
RELATED:
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Eastern US to Remain Mild as El Nino Keeps the Polar Vortex at Bay This Winter
Due to the marginal temperatures expected, timing of the storms will be very important for those hoping for a white Christmas.
"The problem will be for storms to catch up with the brief episodes of chilly air in absence of persistent and extensive cold conditions," Pastelok said.
"A persistent storm track that has split chilly air to the northwest and mild air to the southeast should continue from the southern Rockies toward the Great Lakes through the end of December," Pastelok said.
A secondary storm track along the coastal Northeast could come into play for parts of northern New England and upstate New York, provided the secondary storms are strong enough to draw in cold air.
Factoring in that actual temperatures will continue to trend downward, following typical seasonal trends, air cold enough for snow may extend a bit farther to the south and east compared to November and early December this year and last Christmas.
Cities such as Chicago; Minneapolis; Kansas City, Missouri; Albany, New York; and Caribou, Maine; may be cold enough for snow this Christmas, provided a storm is in the vicinity.
Even so, most areas from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley, much of the mid-Atlantic and southeastern New England on south are looking at air too warm too often to support snow through Christmas.
Cities such as St. Louis, Cincinnati and New York City will probably not be cold enough for snow through Christmas.
More persistent winter weather for the Midwest and Northeast is still many weeks away, Pastelok stated.
"We expect some colder air masses and perhaps opportunities for snow to pick up toward the middle of January," Pastelok said. "February should be busy in terms of cold air, storms and the potential for snow."
According
to this article,this winter looks to be a complete carbon copy of the
last few winters around here.The last few winters around here (the
northeastern US,including the NYC area and New England),had unseasonably
mild weather in December and January and then February and March were
cold and snowy for most of us here in the northeastern US;a complete 180
change from earlier in the 2014-15 winter season. Remember, Boston got
like 80% or 90% of their 120 inches of snow last year from mid-to-late
January onward.It really wasn't until that 3-4 FEET of snow that fell on
them on or around January 27,2015 that
set in motion the series of storms that helped to push them to their 120
inch total for last winter (we here in the NYC area were supposed to
get slammed too but we "only" got 8 or 9 inches from that storm and I
remember how angry everyone around here was that we only got 9 inches
instead of the 2-3 FEET that we were "supposed" to get here in the NYC
area).Then,February was historically bitterly cold and even as of late
April we were getting snow flurries around here and even into May it was
cold enough for everyone around here to wear bulky winter coats. I even
remember last Christmas,it was like 55-60 degrees too,so here we go
again.
Anders Updale ·
So
Winter 2015-16 could end up being similar to the one of 1982-83 for the
Northeast when a big snowstorm finally fell in mid February.
Laura Ann Saylor Bailey ·
I
see the warm, warm, warm, but where is the dry, dry, dry El Nino
forecasted weather for the Midwest and Ohio Valley for late fall moving
into winter--that part of the forecast has not held true!
1 ·
Bill Ross ·
actually
some rain is good in the late fall & early winter, helps modify
Arctic air masses when they do come in here. Hopefully spring will be
dry, so we can have a hot summer in 2016.
Preston Nickolas Alexander ·
I
happen to love this warmer weather here in Southeastern New England.
Been a real blessing not to be shiverin' and shovelin'. What I don't
understand, however, is that this being a super El Nino year...why is
Southern California practically without any rain in its forecast through
the end of January?
Thomas Dyer ·
Accuweather
- your too bias warm. You just do not want to seem to budge of your
warm,warm,warm - your getting boring. Long time viewers of your site are
starting to get turned off by your boring warm forecast. If you don't
soon starting forecasting some exciting weather I am going to pull the
advertising I do on your site.
Bill Ross ·
I like it when a warm accuweather forecast turns out right! to me, warm weather is exciting!
BRING IT!
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