By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
January 23,2015; 11:21PM,EST
While the mid-Atlantic will be spared a major snowstorm, snow will accumulate in part of the region and a nor'easter will deliver heavy snow to a portion of New England during the first part of this weekend.
Plenty of moisture, a lack of arctic air and a fast-moving, but strengthening storm will all weigh in to bring a wintry mess along the Atlantic Seaboard Friday night into Saturday night.
Enough rain, snow or a mix thereof will lead to travel delays from the Interstate 81 corridor to I-95.
According to AccuWeather.com Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, "Airline passengers on the East Coast can expect delays due to direct effects of the storm ranging from poor visibility and low clouds to drenching rain and heavy snow."
Ripple-effect delays are possible in other parts of the nation with some crews and aircraft being displaced.
A mix of rain and snow or a change to plain rain for a time will limit the snowfall accumulation from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia, New York City and Providence, Rhode Island. Only a small amount of snow will fall around Washington, D.C., and Baltimore. However, farther to the north, several inches of snow can accumulate prior to or following a change to rain.
Slushy travel may be followed by poor drainage area flooding on Saturday along the I-95 upper mid-Atlantic swath. A change back to snow and slush may occur at the tail end of the storm.
North and west of the I-95 swath from Washington, D.C., to New York City, more substantial snow will fall with likely enough to shovel and plow. A few inches of snow may fall from Martinsburg, West Virginia, to Harrisburg and Scranton, Pennsylvania and Middletown, New York, even if some sleet and rain mix in.
A very short distance from southeast to northwest in the I-95 corridor may define just wet roads to snow and slippery travel.
"A distance of 30 miles could make the difference between 6 inches of snow and an inch of rain from Philadelphia to New York City, adding to the forecast challenge," Abrams said.
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There is still the potential for a major snowstorm from north of New York City to coastal northern New England.
"The Boston area will get heavy wet snow with the risk of downed tree limbs and power outages," Abrams said.
"In the city of Boston, the storm will become slushy and wet, but north and west it will get increasingly snowy."
As the storm rapidly strengthens along the New England coast later Saturday and Saturday night, winds will increase over the Northeast. Gusts past 50 mph are possible on Cape Cod.
Areas from the mountains of western Virginia and North Carolina, parts of northern Tennessee, eastern Kentucky, West Virginia, western Maryland will get enough snow or wintry mix to cause slippery travel into early Saturday.
Skiers can expect the storm to cooperate for the most part this weekend. While the biggest snow will not reach most resorts, drenching rain will not reach ski areas from the Poconos to northern New England.
Over much of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and the Piedmont areas of the Carolinas, enough rain can fall to cause urban flooding problems. Where heavy rain alone occurs or follows heavy snow, along part of the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts, there can be street and poor drainage area flooding.
Another storm with snow will affect the Midwest later this weekend and then the coastal Northeast during the first part of next week. Indications are the storm on Monday will have colder air to work with and could bring snow all the way to the mid-Atlantic beaches.
AccuWeather.com will continue to provide updates on this and other storms through the weekend.
- Roz Stimpel · Works at Fairway MotorsQuick! PANIC. RUN and buy milk, bread and eggs! Lol. Why do people do tagt? #FRENCHTOAST???
- Andrea Bonner · Top Commenter
- Caleb Miller · Hanover, PennsylvaniaMaybe my wish for the BIG ONE will come true! Bring it on! I love snow.
- Debbie Scott · Follow · Top Commenter · Https://www.facebook.com/palmeritransportation?fref=ts at Palmeri TransportationI love snow.. and have been waiting all winter for our 'first big' storm.. GOD I hope those weathermen(and women) are right.. I could not stand to be disappointed yet again by a ton of hoopla and no substance!
- Deshaun Divinityz Peterson · Top Commenter · BMCCThis has not happened in a while, When was the last time you have herd of all 3 Major locations.. Boston, NYC, and Washington DC getting lots of snow all from the same storm?
This is an absolutely beautiful pattern change, hopefully one that will stay for the rest of winter, Shoot to break the snow records mother nature Woo!- Steve Wolf · Top Commenter · Alpha Dog at Dog TrainingMary Wright Pippert If you are going to make a comment like that, perhaps you are not leaning much in the college that you attend.....like the difference between CLIMATE and WEATHER. Just sayin :) Oh....that's right.....you ARE from Texas and so I shoulda known.
- Adam Lowe · Top CommenterSorry to burst your bubble but there will only be an inch or two from this storm in those cities before it turns to rain and melts it all away, the pattern has not changed and will not change till the end of Feb, the NAO and AO are set to remain +ve, The second storm will only hit DC and Baltimore and points south with 6 inches the rest of the big cities will remain dry and cold and then it will be dry and cold for a while.
- Deshaun Divinityz Peterson · Top Commenter · BMCCAdam Lowe I found out that when the NAO goes very positive it provides some blocking to force storms back towards the coast, Not the blocking you get from a Negative NAO but a blocking high sets up, what I heard. never believed it until I did my research on where the NAO was last winter being positive most of the time and that became a crazy snow-filled winter. I gave up in a Negative NAO and just hoping it goes very positive so we can get the winter of 2013/14 all over again. The GFS is throwing storms all over the place trying to simulate a snowy pattern for the Eastern U.S But I will not buy any forecast from the GFS/NAM/EURO/ or Canadian until it is 60 hours or less out because the big dance these models have been doing has been driving me insane, any storm over 60 hours it is better worth watching the trends then trying to forecast it such as this "Second Storm" you speak of, lol it is just my method now lol.
- Adam Lowe · Top CommenterDeshaun Divinityz Peterson I agree I do not look at the computer models more than a few days out, when making long range forecasts they are useless. But for most winters it seems a pattern develops early in the winter and then holds on for the rest of the winter, last winter the pattern was one storm up the coast and one that cuts to the Great Lakes and then one up the coast, If you have noticed this winter there has been virtually no Cutters and all the storms have come up the coast, both winters had +ve NAO and El Nino was not much of factor in both winters yet snowfalls have been opposite. This year I believe very warm water off the east coast have had an effect on producing rain instead of snow as it allows warm air from the south to flow north and west with less modification which pulls the storm track more north and west than what is expected. In the northeast if the NAO goes too negative like it did during February of 2010 then the storms do not get pulled up the coast they go more east due to the strength of the block and they are forced under neath it. That month Boston only got a few inches of snow yet DC saw over 40.
- Arthur Yagudayev · Top Commenter · Volunteering at WATD 95.9 FMAll the models say the storm is a go, and even the Euro is predicting up to a foot plus in New York City, but one model, also a very reliable model, the GFS is saying the storm will only clip the NYC area bringing the tr-state area nothing more than a few rain/snow showers. I hate to say it, but I think the GFS will win out. The reason for this is the blocking is to weak right now as the North Atlantic Oscillation is mostly positive right now.
- Lawrence P. Bansbach · Top Commenter
- Remy Mermelstein · Follow · Irvington High SchoolLawrence P. Bansbach Your hopes are futile the storm will likely be at least as bad as Accuweather is currently predicting and there is another storm right on its heels. The next at least two weeks appear to be very exciting with extremely cold weather and multiple opportunities for snowstorms in the Northeast, including Philly.
- Lawrence P. Bansbach · Top Commenter
- Remy Mermelstein · Follow · Irvington High SchoolLawrence P. Bansbach I don't know your credentials, but you should know that those models have a very hard time with those clippers. First off the Euro came out at 0z for that clipper with 2-4"...over 8 hours before the clipper arrived in Philly. You CANNOT look at the Euro for the clipper, not high enough resolution and model run not close enough. Look at the HRRR model or NAM 4KM WRF...those update almost every hour paint a much better picture. Clippers are very unpredictable. Agreed, the Euro has been overplaying snow totals...BUT in the beginning, and has corrected itself more or less as storm approches 24-36 hours out. Is this ideal? NO! It should be right 3 days out. But this storm has been nearly consistent on the Euro for 4 days now and we are 2 ish days out...We cannot ignore it. Moreover, there are 3 other models with very similar ideas. So come back with concrete evidence that this storm will be a washout otherwise don't clog this feed with pointless blabbering.
- Lawrence P. Bansbach · Top CommenterRemy Mermelstein Never said it would be a washout, only that I hoped it would. Most local forecasts are for 1-3 inches of snow for Philly. The NWS is more bullish at 2-6. Bernie Rayno thinks rain will limit snowfall totals here. EDIT: NWS has lowered the range to 2-4.
- Lawrence P. Bansbach · Top Commenter
- Deshaun Divinityz Peterson · Top Commenter · BMCC
- Eileen Kuch · Top Commenter · Holy Child Academy HS
- Jeffrey M. Martire · Farmingdale Senior High SchoolRelax ? Try plowing snow for 12 hrs on your day off then come home and shovel your property out. Been an ameteur meteorologist since a kid. Last year started the over sensational forecasting. It's grsat to get information but it's doomsday worst scena
- Kitsune Hazard · FollowLast year? Over sensational weather forecasts have been thing for a couple of decades now. I seem to recall a certain "blizzard" that was to hit Philadelphia back in the late '90s and we got 1" of snow. Also the same year predicted to get a record snowfall throughout the winter we had a total of 3". Dallas, TX had more.
- Suz Protz · Top Commenter · Fairleigh Dickinson University
- Brian Beiler · Top Commenter · York, Pennsylvania
- Douglas Lynn · Top Commenter · Frewsburg Central School
- Michael Sokolowski · Top Commenter · Massabesic High School
- Jeffrey M. Martire · Farmingdale Senior High Schoolover sensationalize storms worry all. clipper was to give 2-4 we got barely inch again..no cold air major winter storm? rain mix ocean temps up.this year...its not last year 2014 pattern relax and give modest forecasts.
- JamieandZaira Martin · Top Commenter · University of the Nations
- Joshua Miller · Top Commenter · Undercover Agent, posing as Oil Changer at Curtin Livery at Curtin TransportationBRNG IT ON! Its going to happen eventually,, may as well get it over with! I've had my plow and spreader on my quad for a month,, gotten nothing so far. I work on Saturdays so the only downside will be driving home... but that's what 4 wheel drive is for!
- Aaron Ginther · Top Commenter · Lynchburg, VirginiaDoes the potential exist for Lynchburg, VA? I live about 45 miles east of the I-81 corridor.
- David Colantuono · Top Commenter · Works at Unemployedhttps://www.youtube.com/
watch?v=MUgSNh1eOrw
Anyone notice the similarities between this storm coming and the storm in this video? A strengthening storm coming up from the Southeast...it's hitting on a weekend...and the potential for heavy snow along with downed trees and power outages. Is history going to repeat itself? - Gary Lackey · West Fargo, North DakotaThere isn't too much volcanic ash remaining from the recent eruptions at Colima Volcano in Mexico but watching that ash (and the ash carried in on the jetstream from last weeks eruptions in Kamchatka Russia) indicated to me significant cloud-seeding in yesterdays storm in Texas. I would suspect that THE REMAINING VOLCANIC ASH WILL CONTINUE MIXING INTO THIS LOW ESPECIALLY ENHANCING PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW. I would predict the storm to strengthen sooner and dump heavy precipitation from Quantico (south of DC) to Maine.
- Adam Lowe · Top CommenterThe weather stations are going crazy about this storm, yet most stations are only predicting 1-3 inches for the big cities with up to an inch on the south side, I do not call that a storm, I can see a lot of people on this blog upset when only an inch or two of slushy wet snow falls on Saturday. We did get our biggest snow of the season this morning in southern RI when an inch fell, I was glad to see it melted by midday. This has been the winter of 1 inch or less snowstorms, what a great winter! I hope it continues, NWS is forecasting rain in my area for Saturday.
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bmcn gymdhgvxvgunvhtjmjykbyhjjj gguhcatahhxdfVXHTFFBHC - Frank Baldassare · Belknap CollegeFolks..we don't get a major snowstorm in situations like this...no cold air source...no artic high to our north...for DCA-phl-nyc...the will be just a cold rain with very little or no snow...boston has a chance to get something...for the remainder of the I-95 corridor..not a chance in hell...this is just more accu weather hype....i wish these guys would do some serious forecast instead of trying to cover for a bust all the time.
- Wilton Knight · Top Commenter · Clifton, VirginiaI"m done reading this accu-nonsense. They love sensationalizing the weather and to boot, never specific. They love saying "i95 corridor" and using other coded words - why the hell can't they just say "jonestown is going to have 6 inches". No more clicking on weather.com, or accuweather.com for me.
- Marc Fresco · University of Massachusetts DartmouthPatience people, will all know by later tonight, the models are all over the place and it may just be more of a rain event and cold @ that. I love the snow, but after the last several years, i could do with one or two storms on the 6 to 10 range. when your running the snow blower for a path for your dog to have @ it and more then four times in a month, well it gets a little past fun..
- Douglas Lynn · Top Commenter · Frewsburg Central SchoolThey hype it because every year there are hundreds, perhaps thousands, of people that are hurt or hurt others because they are unprepared and fail to act responsibly.
- Michael Go Blue · Top Commenter · Cleveland State UniversityHow will all those tough tough New Yorkers survive Its going to rain.... Meanwhile the news will be dominated by stories of the impending next storm of the century...
- Bobby Rice · Faculty Member at Humber CollegeOH WELL, MAYBE THIS WILL CHEER YOU ALL UP!
http://youtu.be/rCBNBD1dm4o
http://youtu.be/F3-TUN7AQbU - Tim Tewksbury · Top CommenterWow. Hope you all survive. It's 72 here in Northern California,
basking in the sun but with no water. 8^) - Ryan Brumbaugh · Top CommenterI hope it misses all the major cities. Get tired of hearing non stop about the NE and seems like they are more important than any other location in America. Go GFS and out to sea further to allow rain more so then snow.
- Doug Alspach · Follow · Electrical/Millwork Manager at The Home DepotFor Philadelphia and the surrounding suburbs I don't consider 3-6 inches if even that big... weak actually
- Cathy Szewc · Top CommenterCaleb I don't enjoy traveling in the snow. The storm could wreck my birthday dinner plans dang it! And at my age I don't know how many more birthdays there will be....
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- Ken Rochford · Top Commenter · Lead something doer. at Somewhere Doing SomethingIll believe it when I see it.... Too many "Storm of the Century" headlines last year, and not a damn one panned out.
- Dave Da Crazylegs · Works at We'll seeOk local forecast says 1-3 map shows 3-6 so we'll probably get a dusting to an inch.
- John Grabowski · Wanamassa, New JerseyI can live without it.. But, it is a fact of life here on the Jersey coast that we will get hit at least once a year with one of these..
- Joseph Miller · Top CommenterI live in Bensalem,Pa.just outside of Phil.,calling for 1 to 3 ,yep,big storm.
- Barb Fitzgerald · Chichester High SchoolThe BIG BOMB once again becomes the BIG DUD! Winter for us in southeast , pa. is done!
- Lawrence P. Bansbach · Top Commenter
- Peg MekoOMG! Snow, run out and get the pizza and beer. Lol
- Christian Thomas HirkoMeanwhile in LA it will be 84, surfs up. LA Rams on their way home.
- PJL PhotographyUpdated radar has it going south of us here in New England.....thank God.
- Michael Sokolowski · Top Commenter · Massabesic High SchoolAnd Vermont is poised to get basically nothing out of this. Crap...
- Lawrence P. Bansbach · Top Commenter
- Marti Christmas Meyers Gaibl · Follow · Senior Associate, QC Microbiology at Bristol-Myers SquibbWhere's Don Kent he was always accurate.
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- Jason Simonds · Top Commenter · Realtor at Farrin PropertiesPlease... (oh please oh please) consider changing the way you make maps/graphs... I have red/green color blindness, and as such most of these color banded prediction maps are just confusing and useless to myself and many others.... thanks..
- HongNhung BuiH GANBSJSB CJ NNDHSHXNXBDHGSBSBXBCNBXJXN
XNXBXHXBXNXHSHXHXYX - Arthur Yagudayev · Top Commenter · Volunteering at WATD 95.9 FMNow, the GFS, ECMWF is forecasting a much bigger storm for Monday into Monday night and the storm should be a 24-30 hour event and NYC could get 6-12", boston could get up to a foot form this storm. The Saturday storm in NYC should be only 2-4".
- HongNhung BuiGDMHWNSJSBSLHC!COCKSJCJCJX
- Chris Esguerra · Top CommenterOnce again another rain event this weekend. I've predicted a total of 3" of snow all winter for NYC and I'm sticking to it. Same winter like last year, biggest storm was like 5". Pathetic. Move to Texas if you want snow.
- William Smith · Top Commenter · Inventory at Rem BarI know, parts of Texas will end up with more snow that DC, NYC and Boston for the year,when all is said and done by March 21,the way this year is shaping up. Sounds like it'll be one of those years this winter.Like last year, this is the year of the Polar Vortex, where that will be in more supply than the snow.
- AnsTin AnTony · Follow · Full Sail UniversityStill not that much snow to central east PA. Low for the season.
- Sue Emanovsky · Follow · Top Commenter · Wentworth, New Hampshirejust leave down there. I'm happy without it.
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