Friday, May 12, 2017

Adrian Weakens to a Tropical Depression in East Pacific; Expected to Weaken to a Remnant Low

May 11,2017
Tropical Depression Adrian is fizzling off the Mexican Pacific coast after become a record-early eastern Pacific named storm Tuesday.
Adrian was the earliest tropical cyclone to form in the northeast Pacific in the satellite era. This record was previously held by Hurricane Alma in 1990.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)
However, strong wind shear took its toll on the tropical cyclone and Adrian weakened to a tropical depression late Wednesday night.
Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center:
  • Tropical Depression Adrian is centered just under 400 miles south-southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico, and is moving slowly toward the northwest.
  • Adrian is forecast to become a remnant low Thursday.
  • The remnants of this system may linger well off the southern Mexican coast for several days.

Current Storm Status
Adrian's forecast has been challenging.
The tropical cyclone's main thunderstorm activity has become well removed from its center of circulation, due to strong southeasterly vertical wind shear.
In fact, as of Thursday morning, only a few weak puffs of convection were located near what had become mainly a low-level swirl of clouds defining Adrian's center. The lion's share of thunderstorm activity was occurring far from the center along the coasts of southeast Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador.
Unless there's a dramatic uptick in convection near Adrian's center, it will likely be designated a remnant low Thursday.
(MORE: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast)

A Rebirth?

Some computer forecast models redevelop Adrian's remnant into a tropical cyclone this weekend or next week, whereas others show Adrian remaining a shallow remnant low for the next five-plus days.
Water temperatures are in the mid-80s, so, assuming wind shear relaxes, we can't rule out a redevelopment of Adrian this weekend or next week.
Winds in the surrounding atmosphere are expected to become very weak by this weekend.
As a result, Adrian's remnants may stall off the coast of Mexico's Pacific coast and linger for some time, possibly well into next week.

Projected Path
Clusters of thunderstorms well removed from Adrian may produce heavy rain at times, leading to local flash flooding and mudslides in portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador the next few days.

Rainfall Forecast Through Sunday
(MORE: El NiƱo May Develop in Late 2017 and Could Impact Hurricane Season)
The eastern Pacific season begins May 15, which is about a half-month earlier than the Atlantic season. The earlier start date is due to warmer waters and typically weaker wind shear earlier in the season as compared to the Atlantic.
MORE: Hurricane Otto, November 2016

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