Sunday, May 28, 2017

Tropical Cyclone Two in the Bay of Bengal to Lash Bangladesh, Myanmar, Eastern India With Flooding Rain, Strong Winds

Jon Erdman
Published: May 28,2017

A tropical cyclone has formed in the Bay of Bengal and poses a danger to Bangladesh, Myanmar and perhaps parts of eastern India by Tuesday.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)
Tropical Cyclone Two is centered about 420 miles south of Chittagong, Bangladesh, as of early Monday morning, local time, with winds estimated as minimal tropical storm force, according to the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

Current Infrared Satellite Image
With little wind shear overhead, and warm water, Two should continue to gain strength, attaining the name "Mora" on Monday, once officially classified as a "cyclonic storm" by the India Meteorological Department.
The tropical cyclone will be pulled north by upper-level steering winds. On that course, the intensifying cyclone will make landfall later Monday or Tuesday in Bangladesh or Myanmar as the equivalent of a stronger tropical storm or a low-end Category 1 hurricane, according to the JTWC forecast.

Forecast Path
Damaging wind gusts and coastal flooding are most likely Monday night into Tuesday along the coastlines of eastern Bangladesh and western Myanmar as the center of the cyclone passes near.
Torrential rainfall is expected along, north and to the east of the track over Bangladesh, northeast India and western Myanmar, extending northward to the foothills of the Himalayas.
This heavy rainfall extending well inland could trigger life-threatening flooding and, in mountainous areas, mudslides.
(MORE: Heavy Rain Triggers Deadly Sri Lanka Landslides)

Rainfall Potential Through Wednesday
Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones have a notoriously deadly history.
As meteorologist Chris Dolce laid out in a previous article, the northern Bay of Bengal is one of the most storm-surge-prone coastlines in the world due to a combination of dense population, very flat terrain near the coast, the narrowing of the bay on its northern edge, the shallow bathymetry of the bay and numerous small inlets.
Of the 12 tropical cyclones on record that have claimed at least 100,000 lives, eight of those formed in the Bay of Bengal, according to Weather Underground.
One of these, the infamous Great Bhola Cyclone, killed at least 300,000 in November 1970, the world's deadliest tropical cyclone of record.
In more recent times, Cyclone Nargis in 2008 devasted the Irrawaddy Delta region of Myanmar, claiming at least 130,000 lives.
(MORE: Which Countries Get Hit Most by Tropical Cyclones?)
Less intense storms have also been very deadly in the region.
In 2015, a tropical storm-strength cyclone, Cyclone Komen, hovered near the coast of Bangladesh and brought flooding rain to six countries that killed nearly 500 people. Cyclone Komen made weeks of heavy rainfall even worse as landslides occurred in Myanmar, and more than a million people were evacuated or displaced from Myanmar alone.
MORE: Bay of Bengal's Deadly Cyclones

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