Monday, April 17, 2017

Severe Weather Threat Ramps Back Up in the Plains, Midwest Wednesday; Potential Weekend Threat in the South

Brian Donegan
Published: April 17,2017

The week ahead will begin with very little severe weather into Tuesday, but this is likely to change Wednesday as a new weather system emerges in the Midwest with our next round of severe thunderstorms.
(MORE: Tornado Central)
A low-pressure system will ripple along a frontal boundary midweek. Combined with abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture and strong mid-level winds creating wind shear, the change in wind speed and/or direction with height, all the ingredients necessary for severe thunderstorms will be available.
(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)
Friday, a potent upper-level jet stream disturbance will swing out into the Plains states, potentially kicking off another round of strong thunderstorms and heavy rain in the Plains and South into the weekend.
Below is our latest forecast thinking on the timing and magnitude of the severe threats from Wednesday through this weekend.

Severe Weather Forecast

  • Forecast: Severe storms will threaten portions of eastern Nebraska, Kansas, southern Iowa, northern Missouri, central Illinois, Indiana and northwestern Ohio in the afternoon and evening.
  • Threats: Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the greatest risks, though a couple tornadoes are also possible.
  • Cities: Omaha, Nebraska | Des Moines, Iowa | Peoria, Illinois | Indianapolis

Wednesday's Thunderstorm Forecast
  • Forecast: The severe threat shifts east into the Ohio Valley, perhaps as far east as western Pennsylvania and southwestern New York.
  • Threats: Damaging wind gusts and hail appear to be the greatest threats in these areas, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
  • Cities: Indianapolis | LouisvilleCincinnati | ClevelandPittsburgh

Thursday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Another Round Begins Friday?

Key details are uncertain, given we are several days out in time, but another multi-day round of severe weather is possible from the southern Plains to the Southeast Friday into the weekend. Here is our latest outlook by day.
  • Forecast: Clusters of severe thunderstorms, also producing locally heavy rain, are possible in parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks.
  • Threats: Damaging wind gusts and large hail are of greatest concern, but a couple tornadoes may also occur.
  • Cities: Wichita Falls, Texas | Lawton, Oklahoma | Fort Smith, Arkansas

Friday's Thunderstorm Forecast
  • Forecast: The severe threat heads into the lower Mississippi Valley, potentially spreading through the Deep South and Tennessee Valley.
  • Threats: Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the main threats, though a tornado or two are also possible.
  • Cities: New Orleans | Jackson, Mississippi | Memphis | Nashville

Saturday's Thunderstorm Forecast
  • Sunday: Some severe storms are possible in parts of the Southeast, with locally heavy rain possible in the Appalachians and adjacent piedmont.
(MAPS: 7-Day U.S. Rain Forecasts)
Check for updates in the days ahead as the specifics of this forecast are ironed out.

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MORE: Severe Weather Outbreak in the South, April 4-5, 2017

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