Flooding rain from brewing cyclone to inundate eastern India, Bangladesh

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

November 4,2016; 10:43PM,EDT

 

Regardless of the intensity of a budding tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal, flooding rain will threaten eastern India and Bangladesh into this weekend.
Currently a depression, the system will parallel the coast of eastern India into Saturday, local time. The depression will then make landfall in Bangladesh as early as later this weekend.
Prior to approaching Bangladesh, AccuWeather Meteorologist Courtney Spamer said that conditions are conducive for the depression to become a deep depression or even a named cyclone.
"The best chance for it to strengthen into a cyclone will be into Saturday morning," she said.

However, the depression should not become stronger than Cyclone Kyant.
"Increasingly hostile winds above the surface should cause the storm to weaken before nearing Bangladesh," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said.
Regardless of its intensity, the depression will endanger lives and property by unleashing torrential rainfall.
"The main threat from this system will be heavy rain and flooding from coastal Odisha to Bangladesh, including the cities of Kolkata and Dhaka," he said.
Puri, India; and Chittagong, Bangladesh, are among the other communities at risk.
Rainfall in that area will total 100-200 mm (4-8 inches), threatening to cause widespread flooding problems. Locally higher amounts are possible.
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Similar rainfall totals may also threaten the higher terrain in Mizoram, Manipur and Meghalaya in northeastern India this weekend.
In Nagaland and southeastern Assam later this weekend, downpours will generally total 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) with localized flooding issues.
The track of the depression will keep flooding rain away from Chennai.
As the depression strengthens, gusty winds will increase around its center and cause seas in the northern Bay of Bengal to become dangerously rough for small craft and swimmers.
Wind gusts of 65-80 km/h (40-50 mph) will buffet the coast of eastern India and southeastern Bangladesh.
It is possible that the depression will slow down and delay its landfall in Bangladesh until early next week. However, any strengthening early this weekend would be negated by the time the depression reaches land.
A slower track would only further heighten the flood risk in Bangladesh. In this scenario, heavy rain will still outrun the depression this weekend, saturating the ground ahead of the downpours set to accompany the depression onshore early next week.