Weekend Nor'easter Mainly Rain for New York, Boston

January 14,2016

A nor'easter is forecast to develop off the East Coast Saturday, but it appears unlikely to deliver a wintry blow to the major coastal cities of the Northeast despite coming at what is typically the coldest time of year.
A nor'easter is an East Coast storm named due to its predominant northeast wind direction preceding the storm. Mention the word "nor'easter" in January, and you're liable to induce some anxiety and dread. A record snow season fueled by several nor'easters in 2014-2015 is still fresh in the minds of many in parts of New England.
But before you stock up at the grocery store and cancel weekend plans, this nor'easter isn't nearly the same animal as last January's Winter Storm Juno.
(MORE: Winter Storm Central)

The Setup

Low pressure is expected to develop quickly off the East Coast Friday night into Saturday, tracking from near the eastern Carolinas Friday to off the New England coast Saturday.

European Model Nor'easter Forecast

In fact, the low-pressure system may strengthen fast enough to satisfy the criteria for bombogenesis, namely a drop in central pressure of at least 24 millibars in 24 hours or less.
(MORE: What is Bombogenesis?)
But that doesn't mean this will necessarily be an impactful East Coast storm for two main reasons:

1) Lack of Cold Air

Also, despite a recent cold front, temperatures are expected to moderate ahead of this system.
"It's a strange system from the point of view of the western low," said winter weather expert, Tom Niziol, referring to a second area of low pressure over the Great Lakes Friday that will help pump warmer air into the Northeast ahead of the developing offshore low.
Niziol says, that western low almost blocks the flow of colder air southward from eastern Canada to New England.
"That is a big part of the ingredients for big Northeast snowstorms," says Niziol.
(MAPS: 10-day Forecast Highs/Lows)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2) A Fast-Mover

This system will also likely be a fast-mover, tracking from near the eastern Carolinas Friday evening to off the Nova Scotia coast 24 hours later.
Even if the air mass were cold enough, that fast track wouldn't allow for prolonged periods of heavy snowfall in the Northeast, with one potential exception, Maine.

Current Outlook

Given all that, here is our latest forecast for Friday and Saturday. Check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel for any potential forecast changes as we near the event.

Friday Night

Friday Night Forecast

• Rain moves up the I-95 corridor from the Carolinas to southern New England.
• Some patchy freezing drizzle, freezing rain or sleet is possible in the interior Northeast.
• Pockets of snow, mainly light, in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Saturday

Saturday's Forecast

• Mainly rain, possibly ending as a brief period of wet snow along the Boston-New York corridor.
• Snow, possibly heavy, in Upstate New York and northern New England, particularly in Maine.
• Bands of lingering lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes snowbelts to the central Appalachians.

Depending on the exact track of the offshore low, some strong winds are possible near the coast, and some high surf, coastal flooding and beach erosion are also possible from the Outer Banks fo North Carolina to New England.
However, the system's rapid movement should keep coastal impacts relatively limited.
At this time, the forecast calls for little snowfall for the Northeast Megalopolis and slightly more in the interior, but not much by January standards. The best chance for at least 6 inches of snow from this system, outside of lake-effect snowbelts, will be in central and northern Maine.
Incidentally, the "Big Apple" is still looking for its first measurable snow of the season.
The record latest season's first snow at New York's Central Park was January 29, 1973, coincidentally also during a strong El Niño.
(MORE: Does El Niño Impact Seasonal Snow?)
The 1972-1973 season was also Central Park's least snowy season, with only 2.8 inches of snow that entire season.

"Right" Snow Track, Wrong Result?

Meteorologists refer to the 40/70 benchmark when watching for impactful Northeast snowstorms.
Namely, a meteorologist's rule-of-thumb is many major Northeast snowstorms track near 40 degrees North latitude and 70 degrees West longitude, about 90 miles south of Nantucket Island.
Despite the expectation that this weekend's low will pass close to this benchmark, significant snow is unlikely for the urban corridor from New York to Boston.

Location of 40 degrees north latitude, 70 degrees west longitude, the "40/70 benchmark" used by meteorologists as a rule-of-thumb for forecasting Northeast snowstorms.

As mentioned earlier, a lack of cold air with this setup is driven in part by another area of low pressure passing well inland, west of New York State.
So, despite this January nor'easter taking a "classic" snowy track, there simply will not be cold enough conditions to support widespread snow across the Northeast.

MORE: Great Lakes Snowfall Jan. 11-12 (PHOTOS)