By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist
January 3,2016; 9:52PM,EST
Much colder weather is in store across the central and eastern United States during January 2016, following months of warmth with record-challenging temperatures.
Warm air recently pushed toward the North Pole. As a balancing act, colder air will be forced farther to the south.
While much colder weather is on the way, it will stop well short of January 2015, when winter broke loose in most areas. Temperatures averaged 10-20 degrees Fahrenheit below normal with highs in the single digits, teens and 20s over the Northern states.
AccuWeather Chief Long Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok does not anticipate that to happen to that extreme this year.
Waves of giant snowballs slam against the shoreline of a New England lake
First blast of cold to roll through Jan. 3-5
One small piece of arctic air will move southward from central Canada and across the Great Lakes and Northeast spanning Sunday to Tuesday.
"This air will be the coldest of the season thus far, which might not seem like much on paper, but it will deliver significantly low temperatures," Pastelok said.
High temperatures will be held to the teens F in upstate New York and northern New England. Temperatures may be held to the 20s in Detroit and Boston and the 30s in New York City. Low temperatures are likely to dip below zero in part of upstate New York and northern New England.
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The arctic cold shot could deliver the first snowflakes of the season to parts of the mid-Atlantic that have not yet had flurries.
Brief warm spell expected before cold returns Jan. 11-18
During the latter part of the first week of January into the second weekend of the month, the cold air will ease up over much of the Central and Eastern states.
"Temperatures will again trend above average in many areas, but will stop well short of record high levels," Pastelok said.
Highs will generally range from the 30s in the northern tier to the 60s over the interior South.
Prior to the middle of the month, colder air will sweep eastward from the Central states, following one or two storms that can bring snow and ice to parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians to New England, mainly away from the Atlantic coast.
"The slow-moving storm spanning Jan. 10-12 is the one that could pack the most punch in terms of wintry precipitation and widespread cold to follow," Pastelok said.
The cold will add to hardship in the recent aftermath of record flooding over the middle Mississippi Valley.
During the middle of the month, cities from Kansas City, Missouri, and St. Louis to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh may have multiple days where temperatures fail to climb past the freezing mark. High temperatures may be within a few degrees of freezing in New York City and Philadelphia.
In the South, multiple days with highs in the 40s are likely from Little Rock, Arkansas, to Atlanta and Richmond, Virginia are likely during the middle of the month.
Scenarios: Will the polar vortex usher in cold for late January?
On one hand, waves of cold air may get more intense from the North Central states to the East. On the other hand, the cold air may ease up during the latter part of the month.
Pastelok stated that he and his team of long-range meteorologists are leaning toward a scenario with continued back-and-forth cold and mild episodes, where milder Pacific air will blend in with the cold resulting in less harsh conditions for much of the Eastern states after Jan. 18.
However, cold air is likely to be persistent in the North Central states and continue in waves into northern New England due to established snowcover.
"We will have to watch the position of the polar vortex toward the middle of the month," Pastelok said. "There is a chance the vortex splits and sends one batch of intense cold toward Europe and the other batch toward North America during the latter part of January."
Pastelok's crew still anticipate a stormy February along the Pacific, Gulf and Atlantic coasts with enough cold air to bring the potential for multiple snow and ice events in the Northeast.
Steven Maginnis ·
An ice storm for 1/16/16 in NYC? Seriously???????????????
Allan Jimmerson
Bring on the cold weather...nothing is worse than hot, humid, hazy days!
David Colantuono ·
Works at Unemployed
Anyone
read the "Weather Whys" for today (January 3rd)? The Earth is at its
closest point to the Sun at about 91.4 million miles away. Perhaps,
this is why there's a lack of extremely cold air, depending on your
location.
Yet, in July, when the Earth is at its farthest point to the Sun at about 94.5 million miles away, it still gets unbearably hot, depending on your location.
I wonder what would happen if it was reversed...say, at 94.5 million miles from the Sun in January and at 91.4 million miles from the Sun in July. Would it result in colder Winters and hotter Summers (in the Northern Hemisphere)? Or, would it not make much of any difference?
Yet, in July, when the Earth is at its farthest point to the Sun at about 94.5 million miles away, it still gets unbearably hot, depending on your location.
I wonder what would happen if it was reversed...say, at 94.5 million miles from the Sun in January and at 91.4 million miles from the Sun in July. Would it result in colder Winters and hotter Summers (in the Northern Hemisphere)? Or, would it not make much of any difference?
John Duffy
Hi
David, I'm no expert but from what I understand, the Earth's proximity
to the sun has no bearing on the temperature we feel on Earth in the
different seasons. Instead, it is the tilt of the Earth's axis towards
or away from the sun, in the summer and winter, respectively, that
causes the warmth and the cold. So, to answer your question, I doubt it
would make much of a difference!
Heather Moscaritolo ·
Pet Stylist at Petco
Oh how I can't wait for summer. Winter is so depressing. I hate being cold! If I had the $ we'd be moving to key west.
Irish Cornaire ·
Please
please please keep ye pets indoors,if ye are a feral cat caregiver
please make sure their shelters are adequate and please use Straw for
their shelters,not hay since it absorbs moister,if ye live where snow is
accumulating and expecting more snow fall keep their shelters entrances
clear,this coming week is going to be horribly brutal for our feral
felines for gawds sakes dont keep ye dog tied up outside in this weather
and again bang on ye hood/boot of ye car before ye start it.
Dana Warkentin ·
20 degrees is pretty warm lol - that's is what I have my furnace set on. Talking standard Celsuis of course not that stupid F.
Earl Crabb
When
you're in the United States, it's fahrenheit....it's not
stupid.....kind of like speaking English here, it's just a part of being
American.
Brian Herget ·
That's
odd... I've had my furnace set on 20F and it's come on for only a few
days yet this year. Warm winter we're having here, I guess. Oh, and it's
spelled Celsius... hope that helps!
Dana Warkentin ·
Earl
Crabb the whole World is using Celsius so US has to use it too. I use
Celsius and people around me got used to it. Simple as that.
There should be more people like me pushing the World's standards through and we could save ourselves lots of headache here in the USA.
There should be more people like me pushing the World's standards through and we could save ourselves lots of headache here in the USA.
Dana Warkentin ·
Brian Herget You are right lol ... that was a simple mistype wink emoticon. It is Celsius.
Stephanie Garzon ·
Will
we every have snow in Greenville,sc that will stay on the ground for at
least 3 days or is just " slice" , sleet and ice just in the forcast.
Cory Morrison ·
Michael
Croune El Nino years have been known to bring stormy weather to the
south in the past. I think SC will probably get at least some snow,
especially February.
Karen Rene Christie Hilyer ·
Michael
Croune El Nino brings colder and wetter weather to the South. That is
why this too mild December was a complete shock and a big
disappointment.
Cory Morrison ·
Karen
Rene Christie Hilyer in my area farther north near Toronto, it wasn't a
shocker that December 2015 was mild, since December El Nino's are
almost always mild where I am. What was shocking were the drivers of the
warmth, particularly in the 2nd half of the month. There was a bit of
western troughing and southeast ridging, which is more typical for a La
Nina than an El Nino.
Aaron Ginther ·
I
knew December was going to be warm, but I didn't envision us being 11.5
degrees above average. The numbers came in for December and we just had
our warmest December in recorded histroy, with records dating back to
the late 1800's. The previous record was set in December 1956, and we
broke that record by 1.4 degrees.
The winter of 2016-17 could be a La Nina winter, but even then it's outcome is unknown. Although, my guess is December 2016 has a better chance of being colder than normal with a La Nina or La Nada (ENSO neutral). Like El Nino, every La Nina is different. In La Nina winters, there is typically a SINGLE northern jet (not a split flow), which tends to be very wobbly in La Nina years.
The winter of 2016-17 could be a La Nina winter, but even then it's outcome is unknown. Although, my guess is December 2016 has a better chance of being colder than normal with a La Nina or La Nada (ENSO neutral). Like El Nino, every La Nina is different. In La Nina winters, there is typically a SINGLE northern jet (not a split flow), which tends to be very wobbly in La Nina years.
Mary Jo Logan ·
Works at Home Daycare
The
cold is coming,but the moisture isn't....so basically useless for a
snow lover.Computer Models are inconsistent,which tells me there won't
be much going on in the East.
Michael Croune ·
Mary Jo, well said! smile emoticon
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