Warmth to Spread Across Southern Europe

By Adam Douty, Meteorologist

May 3,2015; 9:22PM,EDT

 

 

Very warm and dry air from across the Sahara will spread across southern Europe through much of this week as a ridge of high pressure in the jet stream pushes east across the region.
To begin the week, warmth will be felt near the western Mediterranean from southern Spain into southern France, along with Corsica and Sardinia.
Temperatures in Madrid will climb to 27 C (81 F) on Monday. This is about 8 degrees C (14 degrees F) above average.
More impressive warmth will be seen near the coast from Murcia to Valencia where highs will soar into the lower 30s C (lower 90s F) on Monday and Tuesday. These temperatures will likely be the hottest conditions since September of last year.
Though periods of warmth are not uncommon in the spring across southern Spain, warmth like this is more likely in the summer rather than spring.

By Tuesday, a trough of low pressure moving into western Europe will lead to a cooldown in central Spain. This trough will not only provide more seasonable conditions for Madrid, but it will also push the ridge of high pressure farther to the east.
As the ridge of high pressure presses to the east across Italy and into the Balkans from Tuesday into Wednesday, the warm flow of warm Africa air will cause a significant rise in temperatures. Not only will temperatures increase, the a flow across the Mediterranean Sea will pick up moisture, increasing humidity.
Rome will see temperatures continue to rise into the middle of the week, reaching a peak on Tuesday with a high near 26 C (79 F). Temperatures will remain warm through Thursday, but they will fall back several degrees for the end of the week.
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The southern Balkans will also see temperatures soar well above average from Sarajevo to Sofia. Along with the temperatures, an increase in humidity will make it uncomfortable for many with outdoor activities. Temperatures in these areas will rise into the lower 30s C (upper 80s and lower 90s F).
To end the heat across the Balkans, a cold front arriving on Thursday will lead to showers and thunderstorms as the air flow turns out of the north. Due to the high heat and humidity in place across the region, a few of these thunderstorms could be strong, containing downpours and strong wind.
While the warmth will also fade across the rest of the Mediterranean coast during the second half of the week, many other areas from Italy to southern Spain will remain dry.