Published: May 14,2015
The western Pacific has been hyperactive so far in 2015, and now Typhoon Dolphin is bearing down on Guam and Rota Island.
Infrared Satellite Image
Latest Guam Radar
The National Weather Service has issued a typhoon warning for Guam, Rota Island, Tinian and Saipan. This means typhoon conditions - including winds of 74 mph or stronger - are expected through the next 24 hours.
Dolphin is currently about 140 miles east of Guam as of Thursday evening, EDT with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, a strong Category 2 equivalent storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.
(MORE: Hurricane Versus Typhoon)
Typhoon Dolphin is moving west-northwest at 17 mph.
Dolphin is expected to take a bit of a northwest bend, but will not have time to avoid what looks to be a direct hit on Guam or Rota Island late Friday afternoon or evening local time. Guam is 14 hours ahead of U.S. EDT.
Typhoon Dolphin Forecast Path
(FORECAST: Guam)
With typhoon-force winds extending only up to 35 miles from the center of circulation, any subtle jogs of the center north or south within the forecast cone can mean the difference between experiencing the typhoon's strongest winds and lower tropical storm-force winds.
The typhoon is fighting some dry air to its west and some southerly wind shear, as well. However, it is still expected to gather more strength prior to its closest approach to Guam and Rota, possibly to Category 3 intensity at that time.
Coastal inundation of 2-3 feet is expected with the passage of the typhoon around time of high tide - 5:45 pm local - Friday. Up to 12 inches of rain is possible with the typhoon through late Friday, leading to rainfall flooding, as well.
Andersen Air Force Base on Guam went into tropical cyclone condition of readiness 2 Thursday afternoon, meaning only essential personnel should be moving around base.
United Airlines, Cape Air/United Express and Japan Airlines have cancelled all flights to and from Guam Friday, according to Guam Homeland Security. United has added extra flights Thursday evening to accommodate passengers originally booked to fly on Friday. Schools and government offices will be closed Friday and emergency shelters have opened.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)
Check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel for the very latest on this Guam threat.
After Dolphin passes Guam it will continue to intensify, possibly into a Category 4 or stronger equivalent typhoon this weekend. The typhoon will then round the western edge of the subtropical high and begin to meet the mid-latitude upper-level westerlies. This will accelerate the typhoon toward the northeast, with steady weakening.
While the typhoon will curve well east of the Japanese mainland, Dolphin may take a close swipe at Iwo To (Iwo Jima) Tuesday, local time.
An Exceptionally Active Western Pacific Basin
Dolphin intensified into a typhoon, the equivalent of a hurricane in the western Pacific, Wednesday morning local time (Guam is 14 hours ahead of Eastern Daylight Time).It first formed on May 5, making it the earliest formation of the seventh named tropical cyclone of the year on record in the western Pacific, according to Digital Typhoon. That's 10 days earlier than the previous record of May 19, 1971.
"On average, the seventh named storm doesn't form until the third week in July," says Weather Underground's Director of Meteorology, Dr. Jeff Masters. Masters says only two storms typically form by this time of year in the western Pacific basin.
(MASTERS BLOG: Hyperactive Western Pacific)
The peak threat in Guam from tropical cyclones typically occurs from July to November.
Although most storms affecting Guam are still in the development stage, Guam has experienced direct impacts of full strength typhoons and even super typhoons.
Guam was impacted by Typhoon Vongfong just last October with downed power lines and blown transformers caused power outages around the island.
(MORE: Typhoon Vongfong Barreled Into Guam)
Direct hits on Guam, generally speaking when the center of circulation passes close enough to a location to deliver its strongest winds, are more rare.
Dr. Masters says the last typhoon to do so on Guam was Super Typhoon Pongsona on December 8, 2002, packing winds of 150 mph.
The strongest wind gust recorded in Guam was 170 mph during Super Typhoon Paka in December 1997. Approximately 60 percent of the homes on Guam saw major damage and power outages were island-wide.
However, Typhoon Karen in November 1962 is regarded as one of the most powerful tropical cyclones to strike Guam and is one of the most destructive events in the island's history. Karen had estimated wind gusts up to 185 mph leaving 95 percent of homes damaged or destroyed. Eleven people were killed.
MORE: Typhoon Vongfong Hits Guam, Mariana Islands (PHOTOS)
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