Noul Racing Toward Japan's Mainland After Slamming Its Southernmost Islands, Breaking Wind Records (FORECAST)

Nick Wiltgen
Published: May 11,2015



 
Former Super Typhoon Noul has arrived in Japan's southern islands with record-breaking winds and heavy rainfall after slamming the northern Philippines over the weekend. Noul has since weakened to a strong tropical storm but is still bringing a quick blast of strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Japan.
(MORE: Impacts From Noul | Noul Strikes Yap, then Philippines)
As of 10 a.m. Tuesday Japanese time (9 p.m. Monday U.S. Eastern time), the Japan Meteorological Agency said the center of Tropical Storm Noul was near Amami Oshima, an island about 200 miles south of the southwestern tip of mainland Japan and about 120 miles northeast of Okinawa. The Amami Airport on that island observed a 69-mph (111-kph) sustained wind at 10:39 a.m. Japanese time; the peak gust there was 90 mph (144 kph) around the same time.
The storm was moving to the northeast at 40 mph (65 kph), a forward motion that has more than doubled in speed since Monday evening local time.
Noul was much stronger when it arrived in Japan's southernmost islands late Monday night (Japanese time). The island of Shimoji clocked a sustained wind of 102 mph (165 mph) just after 1 a.m. Tuesday (local time) while an intense rainband on the back side of Noul moved through. The peak gust was 131 mph (211 kph), setting a national record for Japan's highest wind gust ever recorded in the month of May, excluding the summit of Mount Fuji.
Noul, which looked unimpressive on satellite but showed a well-defined eye on Japanese radar early Tuesday, made several slight wobbles to the left after passing through the Yaeyama island chain late Monday evening. These wobbles took the center just west of Okinawa rather than directly overhead. A heavy rain band swept through Okinawa around daybreak Tuesday, but quickly moved out, dropping only about half an inch (10 to 15 mm) of rain.
Winds gusted to nearly 50 mph (80 kph) on Okinawa around sunrise Tuesday. Webcams showed traffic moving smoothly on the island, which is well prepared for typhoons and their powerful winds. The U.S. military's Kadena Air Base on Okinawa moved to TCCOR-1 Recovery as winds subsided to around 15 mph by late Tuesday morning. Under that readiness level, base personnel will check for any storm damage that would pose a danger to people.
(INTERACTIVE: Satellite Image of Noul)
The effects of Noul will only last a few hours at any given location due to its rapid forward motion.

Infrared Satellite Image

Earlier, as Noul passed through the Japan's Yaeyama island chain just east of Taiwan, the main observation site on Ishigaki Island (Ishigaki-jima) recorded a sustained wind of 64 mph (104 kph) just before midnight Monday evening. That set the location's an all-time record for strongest sustained wind in the month of May – an impressive feat considering records have been kept there since 1897. The island gusted to 99 mph (159 mph) at about the same time.
Rainfall has been locally heavy. Kabira, on the north side of Ishigaki Island, received over 4 inches of rain in three hours Monday evening as the center of Noul approached.
Satellite imagery Monday evening (local time) showed Noul as a much less formidable typhoon than it had been over the weekend. There was still a large blob of convection (thunderstorms) associated with the storm, but no discernible eye. However, Japanese radar continued to indicate a very well-defined eye and eyewall as it tracked through Japan's southern islands and past Okinawa. That eyewall began to erode late Tuesday morning (local time) as dry air intruded into the western and southern quadrants of the storm.

Latest forecast path and intensity of center of Noul from the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Circles denote uncertainty in location of center at each forecast time period.

Typhoon Noul will continue to accelerate northeastward through the rest of Japan's southern islands on Tuesday afternoon local time. This will bring locally strong winds and heavy rainfall to some areas, depending on Noul's exact track. Noul's wind field is fairly compact, so some islands may not feel its full brunt.
By Tuesday night local time, Noul will be whizzing past the Pacific coast of mainland Japan, merging with a cold front approaching from the west. This combination is expected to bring heavy rainfall and strong winds from the island of Kyushu all the way to the Kantō region, which includes Tokyo.
JMA's late-morning advisory on Noul predicts up to 4 inches of rain and sustained winds up to 50 mph in the Tokyo area for Wednesday, along with gusts up to 75 mph as Noul's center moves near or over Tokyo. Noul should become a strong post-tropical low-pressure system shortly after that as it moves off the coast of northern Japan.
Western Pacific tropical cyclones, known as typhoons when they reach hurricane-equivalent status, can form any time of year.
Owing partially to this year-round calendar of potential development, roughly one-third of all the Earth's tropical cyclones form in the western Pacific Basin. On average, 25 tropical cyclones form each year in the western Pacific Basin, with 15-16 of those strengthening to Category 1 equivalent typhoons.
(MORE: Hurricane Central | Tropical Update)
Check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel for the latest on this Western Pacific tropical cyclone.
Meteorologist Jonathan Erdman contributed to this report.

MORE: Super Typhoon Maysak Images From Space