By:
Jeff Masters
, 5:05PM,GMT on January 16,2015
Earth had its warmest year on record in 2014, said NOAA and NASA at a joint press conference today. According to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center,
global surface temperatures in 2014 were 1.24°F (0.69°C) above the 20th
century average, highest among all years in the 1880-2014 record,
easily breaking the previous records of 2005 and 2010 by 0.07°F
(0.04°C). Using independent measurement techniques but mostly the same set of surface stations, NASA also rated 2014 as the warmest year on record,
as did the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The other widely-cited
global temperature measurement, from the UK Met Office, has not yet been
released for 2014. Because there are variations in how each group
handles the Arctic and other data-sparse areas, there are slight
differences in the "top ten" lists of warmest years produced by each
group. However, 2014 is the first year since 2005 that has topped the
temperature charts for both NASA and NOAA.
Figure 1. Earth's departure in temperature from the 20th century average during the period 1880 - 2014, according to NOAA.
Including 2014, nine out of ten of the warmest years in the 135-year period of record have occurred during the 21st century (2001–2014), with 1998 (4th warmest year on record) rounding out the top ten. Global land temperatures were the 4th warmest on record during 2014, and ocean temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere were the 3rd or 6th warmest in the 36-year record, according to UAH and RSS, respectively. The year 2014 joined 2012 and 2013 as having near-average precipitation on balance across the globe.
Figure 2. Departure of global temperature from average for 2014. Record warmth was spread around the world, including Far East Russia into western Alaska, the western United States, parts of interior South America, most of Europe stretching into northern Africa, parts of eastern and western coastal Australia, much of the northeastern Pacific around the Gulf of Alaska, the central to western equatorial Pacific, large swaths of northwestern and southeastern Atlantic, most of the Norwegian Sea, and parts of the central to southern Indian Ocean. The only land areas cooler than average were the Central U.S. and the southern tip of South America; no land areas were record cold. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.
New record set without an El Niño event
The new temperature record in 2014 was not a “cheap” record—it was set without an official El Niño event. The previous three hottest years on record—2010, 2005, and 1998—were all characterized by an El Niño event at the beginning of the year, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. During an El Niño event, warm water in the equatorial Pacific can warm the global surface temperature by 0.1°C or more, making global temperature records more likely. Admittedly, El Niño-like conditions began developing in June 2014, and the threshold for a weak El Niño event was reached in October and maintained through December. However, since there is lag of about 2 - 4 months between the emergence of El Nino conditions and the impact of this warm water on global surface temperatures (Foster and Rahmstorf, 2011), the emergence of El Niño-like conditions late in 2014 did not have a big impact on global surface temperatures. Moreover, January - March of 2014 featured weak La Niña-like conditions in the Eastern Pacific, with cooler-than-average ocean waters that helped depress global temperatures well into the summer.
Figure 3. The global departure of temperature from average from 1965 - 2014, binned by whether or not the year was classified as an El Niño, La Niña, or neutral. 2014 was by far the hottest "neutral" year on record, and the first year since 1990 to set a record without influence from El Niño. Image credit: skepticalscience.com.
UK Met Office forecasts another global temperature record in 2015
What about the new year? The UK Met Office predicts that 2015 is likely to top 2014. Assuming that the Met Office's final numbers for 2014 agree with NASA and NOAA on a global record, this forecast would make 2015 the second record-setting year in a row. The last time we saw consecutive global highs was in 1997 and 1998, when the strongest El Niño event on record gave a major boost to both years (see NOAA’s ENSO dataset). The previous pair of back-to-back record-setters was 1987 and 1988, again bolstered by El Niño conditions. A useful analog for our current situation may be 1980 and 1981. In those two years, new global highs were set without the benefit of any El Niño event. What’s more, the early 1980s marked the beginning of a dramatic rise in global atmospheric temperature that spanned nearly two decades. The rate of global warming since 2000 has been slower than in the 1980s and 1990s, but could back-to-back warmest years on record in 2014 and potentially in 2015 signal the end of this slow-down? Next week, Bob Henson will discuss new research presented at last week's American Meteorological Society meeting pertaining to this subject.
Commentary
The fact that separate analyses by three major research groups rated 2014 as the warmest year on record should put to rest the bogus idea often espoused by climate change deniers that "global warming stopped in 1998." Based on the evidence, more than 97% of climate scientists have concluded that humans are primarily responsible for the warming of the planet to the record levels observed in 2014. Climate change is already causing significant impacts to people and ecosystems, and these impacts will grow much more severe in the coming years. New research is painting a clearer picture of the tough decisions that lie ahead if we hope to reduce the serious risks that we and our planet face. As we approach the critical negotiations in Paris in December to hammer out a new binding climate change treaty, we should keep in mind that we can choose to take economically sensible steps to lessen the damage of climate change, and the cost of inaction is much higher than the cost of action.
Jeff Masters and Bob Henson
Figure 1. Earth's departure in temperature from the 20th century average during the period 1880 - 2014, according to NOAA.
Including 2014, nine out of ten of the warmest years in the 135-year period of record have occurred during the 21st century (2001–2014), with 1998 (4th warmest year on record) rounding out the top ten. Global land temperatures were the 4th warmest on record during 2014, and ocean temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere were the 3rd or 6th warmest in the 36-year record, according to UAH and RSS, respectively. The year 2014 joined 2012 and 2013 as having near-average precipitation on balance across the globe.
Figure 2. Departure of global temperature from average for 2014. Record warmth was spread around the world, including Far East Russia into western Alaska, the western United States, parts of interior South America, most of Europe stretching into northern Africa, parts of eastern and western coastal Australia, much of the northeastern Pacific around the Gulf of Alaska, the central to western equatorial Pacific, large swaths of northwestern and southeastern Atlantic, most of the Norwegian Sea, and parts of the central to southern Indian Ocean. The only land areas cooler than average were the Central U.S. and the southern tip of South America; no land areas were record cold. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.
New record set without an El Niño event
The new temperature record in 2014 was not a “cheap” record—it was set without an official El Niño event. The previous three hottest years on record—2010, 2005, and 1998—were all characterized by an El Niño event at the beginning of the year, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. During an El Niño event, warm water in the equatorial Pacific can warm the global surface temperature by 0.1°C or more, making global temperature records more likely. Admittedly, El Niño-like conditions began developing in June 2014, and the threshold for a weak El Niño event was reached in October and maintained through December. However, since there is lag of about 2 - 4 months between the emergence of El Nino conditions and the impact of this warm water on global surface temperatures (Foster and Rahmstorf, 2011), the emergence of El Niño-like conditions late in 2014 did not have a big impact on global surface temperatures. Moreover, January - March of 2014 featured weak La Niña-like conditions in the Eastern Pacific, with cooler-than-average ocean waters that helped depress global temperatures well into the summer.
Figure 3. The global departure of temperature from average from 1965 - 2014, binned by whether or not the year was classified as an El Niño, La Niña, or neutral. 2014 was by far the hottest "neutral" year on record, and the first year since 1990 to set a record without influence from El Niño. Image credit: skepticalscience.com.
UK Met Office forecasts another global temperature record in 2015
What about the new year? The UK Met Office predicts that 2015 is likely to top 2014. Assuming that the Met Office's final numbers for 2014 agree with NASA and NOAA on a global record, this forecast would make 2015 the second record-setting year in a row. The last time we saw consecutive global highs was in 1997 and 1998, when the strongest El Niño event on record gave a major boost to both years (see NOAA’s ENSO dataset). The previous pair of back-to-back record-setters was 1987 and 1988, again bolstered by El Niño conditions. A useful analog for our current situation may be 1980 and 1981. In those two years, new global highs were set without the benefit of any El Niño event. What’s more, the early 1980s marked the beginning of a dramatic rise in global atmospheric temperature that spanned nearly two decades. The rate of global warming since 2000 has been slower than in the 1980s and 1990s, but could back-to-back warmest years on record in 2014 and potentially in 2015 signal the end of this slow-down? Next week, Bob Henson will discuss new research presented at last week's American Meteorological Society meeting pertaining to this subject.
Commentary
The fact that separate analyses by three major research groups rated 2014 as the warmest year on record should put to rest the bogus idea often espoused by climate change deniers that "global warming stopped in 1998." Based on the evidence, more than 97% of climate scientists have concluded that humans are primarily responsible for the warming of the planet to the record levels observed in 2014. Climate change is already causing significant impacts to people and ecosystems, and these impacts will grow much more severe in the coming years. New research is painting a clearer picture of the tough decisions that lie ahead if we hope to reduce the serious risks that we and our planet face. As we approach the critical negotiations in Paris in December to hammer out a new binding climate change treaty, we should keep in mind that we can choose to take economically sensible steps to lessen the damage of climate change, and the cost of inaction is much higher than the cost of action.
Jeff Masters and Bob Henson
. Patrap
5:44 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 428. KoritheMan: Its Mardi Gras time Bro', carnival. King Cake Egg Nog..made with a liberal dose of Crown. |
|
Scientists balk at ‘hottest year’ claims: Ignores Satellites showing
18 Year ‘Pause’ – ‘We are arguing over the significance of hundredths of
a degree’ – The ‘Pause’ continues Link |
428. KoritheMan
5:40 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 427. Patrap: What egg nog? It's not Christmas anymore last time I checked. |
427. Patrap
5:39 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 424. Xulonn: Dunno, most seem to have been handles under the same isp's, just in waiting for a breakout order. Thats my best intel on it. But the egg nog is skewing my cerebral and temporal lobes toward slumber. So to the REM wunderground we go.  . ; ) |
426. DCSwithunderscores
5:36 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 420. yoboi: The quote that I posted, from the vice president of RSS, is from 4 months ago. Your source is from 24 years ago! Since 1990, problems with the satellite data were identified and corrected (to the degree possible or practical). Now the satellite data and the surface data each show a statistically significant warming trend. I think that the fact that apparently your best source to try to make your point was from 24 years ago, before those problems with satellite data were identified, only weakens your claim, and further weakens the credibility of your source that referred you to that article from 1990. It seems like you're grasping at straws. Were you aware that problems with the satellite data were discovered after 1990, which explained why the satellite data wasn't at the time showing much of a warming trend? I can post links about the problems with the satellite data that were discovered after 1990 upon request. Even if that vice president of RSS is wrong, and satellite data is more reliable, they each show a statistically significant warming trend. Note that they measure different things. |
425. KoritheMan
5:31 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 423. Jedkins01: Well you know how perverted and debased I am, but even I wouldn't post nudity here. That ain't cool. There are select avenues for that. :) |
424. Xulonn
5:29 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 386. Patrap:Does the past 24 period set a record for new ID's? Handles created just to post denialist blather? |
423. Jedkins01
5:22 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 418. KoritheMan: I don't think I've ever put anyone on ignore, but I have occasionally flagged people, but only when it gets really bad, such as particularly disrespectful material. But most of the time I don't bother to flag anything. Once there was nudity on the blog briefly a while back, and certain things like that obviously require the flag. |
422. KoritheMan
5:22 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 421. TropicalAnalystwx13: You mean to tell me that for once I wasn't the one that caused a community uprising? :) |
421. TropicalAnalystwx13
5:10 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 418. KoritheMan: You should've been here earlier. :) |
420. yoboi
4:59 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 311. DCSwithunderscores: Flashback: 1990 NASA Report: ‘Satellite analysis of upper atmosphere is more accurate, & should be adopted as the standard way to monitor temp change.’ Link |
419. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:58 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
418. KoritheMan
4:54 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 417. PensacolaDoug: I don't even flag at all anymore. Nonchalance, yo. Plus this place can be amusing every now and then. :P |
417. PensacolaDoug
4:50 AM GMT on January 17, 2015|
You know this happens constantly on this site Bare. The flag system is not intended for use in removing comments made by those whose opinion you do not share |
416. KoritheMan
4:45 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
The poleward outflow channel is being enhanced by the mid-oceanic trough.
|
415. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:40 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 403. pablosyn: An anticyclone to the east of Typhoon Mekkhala and a howling jet north of the cyclone are acting to enhance outflow to the west and north, while the upper high is acting to restrict outflow to the south and east. 
|
414. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:28 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
413. Grothar
4:26 AM GMT on January 17, 2015| It was very warm today. |
412. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:25 AM GMT on January 17, 2015|
but our environment Canada branch is not permitted to openly discuss it in public as its not there area of expertise there is more to the picture than meets the eye much much more |
411. DCSwithunderscores
4:24 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 397. DeeCeeH: Here's a question for you: What could be causing the global average temperature to be changing about 60 X faster than would be expected from natural causes, and warming when we should be in a long term cooling due to natural causes alone? |
410. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:20 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 387. MrPMax:anywhere south of 60 north of there well things were just toasty |
409. Patrap
4:17 AM GMT on January 17, 2015|
Seems someones mojo got wacked. A copy of my comment, as typed and posted here is being sent to Doc M and to the community management. Ahh, so you copied yer accusation of a post, knowing full well it would be removed, so then you could now claim, er.."stuff". Classy. Baseless accusations are not fondly received seems. And for good reason. Goodnight Irene |
408. Barefootontherocks
4:15 AM GMT on January 17, 2015|
228. Barefootontherocks This comment has been removed for violating the Community Standards. Comment 228 did not violate any community standard and I want this comment restored. My comment was about the headline and the first line in this blog article. It was on topic and gave an opinion on the difference between the headline and the first sentence, and how I thought the headline had occurred because the site wanted click throughs from the local forecast pages. My comment 228 was not removed by a moderator or by Doc M. It was flagged by cowardly bloggers who disagree with what I said - a flagging that represents a gang attack by global warming alarmists. The flag system is not intended for use in removing comments made by those whose opinion you do not share or those who are articulate and brave enough to stand up to bullying by pointing this out to the community. A copy of my comment, as typed and posted here is being sent to Doc M and to the community management. |
407. Patrap
4:14 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 405. LAbonbon: Dats where the critical thinking skills come into play. Google,like all search engines, are only as good as you make them. I go with published science. Always |
406. ColoradoBob1
4:11 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 397. DeeCeeH: Some of largest volcanic eruptions man has ever seen ? |
405. LAbonbon
4:11 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 398. Patrap: Problem is, w/ Google there's no differentiation between real science sites and politically & financially-motivated sites, and lots of people unfortunately end up on sites like Climate Depot, and WUWT. |
404. yoboi
4:11 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 334. Jelloboy: 
|
403. pablosyn
4:09 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Look this outflow! AWESOME! 
|
402. DCSwithunderscores
4:07 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 380. DeeCeeH: I'll start with your claim "When Krakatoa went off, the pollution created was 1000 times more than all the pollution that mankind has ever created in total". Do you have a source for that? It's usually the most ill-informed anti-science sites that promote that misinformation, in the context of CO2 emissions. In any event, the human emission rate of CO2 is on the order of 100 X that of all volcanoes combined. |
401. Patrap
4:04 AM GMT on January 17, 2015|
Wait, Im boiling tea water so I have time. No gang signs,  Well,maybe one. No, I was only joking. Naw, its Ok, throw it up bro. Medieval Warm Period  |
400. ColoradoBob1
4:04 AM GMT on January 17, 2015|
Quoting 380. DeeCeeH: 1.24 degree's is insignificant, Let's raise your body temp by that amount . And you can tell us all how swell you feel. |
399. LAbonbon
4:04 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 385. PedleyCA: Hmmm...perhaps 'depressing', 'sad', and frankly 'embarrassing' are applicable as well. Jedkins01's Post #233 sums it up best. On that note, I'm hitting the hay. Good night, all. Maybe tomorrow will be a smoother day? One can hope, anyway. |
398. Patrap
4:01 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 397. DeeCeeH: Ask the google,......all us Climate folks use it. |
397. DeeCeeH
3:59 AM GMT on January 17, 2015| Here's a question that I've been wanting to ask a climate scientist. What caused the earth's warming of AD 950-1250? And what caused the little Ice Age of 1400-1700? (Could it be that the earth's climate can change all by itself???) |
396. PedleyCA
3:58 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 386. Patrap: Yup, that is a lot closer to the real deal.... |
395. ColoradoBob1
3:58 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 380. DeeCeeH: Thank-you for posting how little you understand the natural world. And what a poor science education you were exposed to. |
394. Patrap
3:58 AM GMT on January 17, 2015|
Quoting 389. yoboi: http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/files/2009/0 2/crn_ratings.png REally, yer gonna go with lil Anthony's crayola graph...? again?  |
393. Patrap
3:56 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 391. 1900hurricane: Having spent a Year in Okinawa, from Sept 82-83 I can totally agree on dat easily. |
392. Patrap
3:55 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 387. MrPMax: psssst, from the article bro. But in Canada, it was our coolest year since 1996, Phillips said. Of course, that doesn't mean it was cooler than average. "It was tad warmer than normal in Canada, believe it or not," Phillips said. By a "tad," he means the average temperature across the country from December 2013 to November 2014 was 0.1 C warmer than the annual average since Canada started keeping nationwide records in 1947. Of course, most of the past two decades have been unusually warm, which is how it is possible for the coolest year in 18 years to be warmer than "average." On the other hand, parts of the country – especially Ontario and Quebec, where two-thirds of Canadians live – actually were cooler than average. |
391. 1900hurricane
3:55 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 381. Patrap:They don't make them like they do in the WPac anywhere else! When it comes to tropical cyclones of note and interest, WPac > all other basins. |
390. Jedkins01
3:54 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 339. 1900hurricane: If that doesn't scream convection, I don't know what does. |
389. yoboi
3:53 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
  I wonder if improvements have been made since 2009??? |
388. Jedkins01
3:51 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 385. PedleyCA: It is, and ultimately one can't reason with the stubborn, for the stubborn aren't interested in thinking or reasoning about the issue concerning pertaining to their stubbornness until they stop being stubborn, which isn't often, given that stubbornness generally gives birth to additional stubbornness. In other words, at some point it's better to just ignore them, but I'll admit that it's not east to given the level of frustration it brings. |
387. MrPMax
3:50 AM GMT on January 17, 2015|
Hottest year on global record was Canada's coolest in 18 years - CBC Canada's article. http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/hottest-year-on -global-record-was-canada-s-coolest-in-18-years-1. 2912998 |
386. Patrap
3:48 AM GMT on January 17, 2015|
Scary? Not the word Id use at all. Ignorance, silliness and shills with bad links or no links. Been phun though. And think of the page views garnered too. |
385. PedleyCA
3:45 AM GMT on January 17, 2015| It is downright SCARY in here today. |
384. schistkicker
3:44 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 352. jeepmanjr: Wait no more - the CO2 in our atmosphere is being produced by oxidation of carbon (there's a corresponding drop in atmospheric oxygen as CO2 rises), and the isotopic composition of the carbon in our atmosphere is compatible with the carbon being "old" and biologic in nature (not volcanic, and not young, since the 14-C is gone). The rest (how is CO2 affecting climate?) can be gleaned from any decent introductory chemistry or physics textbook, available at the local library. Start in with the Laws of Thermodynamics. Finally, if it's NOT CO2 and it's just a conspiracy of commie scientists, then all natural scientists that don't study anything related to climate science are in on it too - the same laws of physics and chemistry that climate science is built on are cornerstones of modern understandings of chemistry, physics, ecology, hydrology, astronomy, fluid dynamics, geology, and many more. If this WAS a conspiracy, I sure would like to know as a (not climate) scientist where MY hush money is... must have gotten lost in the mail. |
383. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:41 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 380. DeeCeeH: |
382. Patrap
3:41 AM GMT on January 17, 2015
Quoting 380. DeeCeeH: Thanx Bro, We have a seat at the Bar only. Do you have ID? |
381. Patrap
3:40 AM GMT on January 17, 2015|
1900hurricane could easily be our featured West Pac and overall Pacific Featured Blogger. Gets my vote. |
430. RuBRNded
5:43 AM GMT on January 17, 2015