Wednesday, October 15, 2014

US Winter Forecast: Cold, Snow to Seize Northeast; Wintry Blasts to Slick South

By Jillian MacMath, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
October 15,2014; 9:00PM,EDT
 
 

Though parts of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic had a gradual introduction to fall, winter will arrive without delay. Cold air and high snow amounts will define the season.
Farther south, ice storms and snow events will threaten the Tennessee Valley and parts of the southern Plains. Much of the South can prepare for a wet winter, with some severe weather encroaching on Florida.
The northern Plains will be somewhat inconsistent with variable, back-and-forth temperatures and below-normal snowfall. Meanwhile, the drought will persist in the Northwest and northern California and ease slightly farther south.
A breakdown of the AccuWeather.com 2014-2015 U.S. Winter Forecast can be found below.
JUMP TO: Cold Northeast, Interior Mid-Atlantic to Yield Snowy Winter Season| Rain, Snow, Ice All Threats for Southeast, Gulf States, Tennessee Valley | Dry, Less Harsh Winter In Store for Midwest, Ohio Valley, northern and central Plains | El Nino May Lead to High Moisture Into Southern Plains, Interior Southwest | Winter Precipitation Won't Bust Northwest, Northern California Drought | POLL: What Type of Winter Are You Hoping For?
Cold Northeast, Interior Mid-Atlantic to Yield Snowy Winter Season
After record-shattering temperatures and high snow totals last winter in the Northeast, a similar theme will continue into the 2014-2015 season.
Cold air will surge into the Northeast in late November, but the brunt of the season will hold off until January and February. The polar vortex, the culprit responsible for several days of below-zero temperatures last year, will slip down into the region from time to time, delivering blasts of arctic air.
"I think, primarily, we'll see that happening in mid-January into February but again, it's not going to be the same type of situation as we saw last year, not as persistent," AccuWeather.com Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.
"The cold of last season was extreme because it was so persistent. We saw readings that we haven't seen in a long time: 15- to 20-below-zero readings."
In addition to the cold air, a big snow season could be in the offing. Higher-than-normal snow totals are forecast west of the I-95 corridor.
"Places like Harrisburg, down to Hagerstown getting into the mountains, the Appalachians, I think that's where you're going to see your bigger, heavier amounts," Pastelok said.
RELATED:
AccuWeather.com Winter Weather Center
AccuWeather.com Severe Weather Center
AccuWeather MinuteCast® for Atlanta

Philadelphia, which received a whopping 68.9 inches last season, is forecast to close this season with snow totals just above normal. New York City will likely follow suit.
The I-95 corridor and eastward could fall victim to changeover systems, which will provide a messy wintry mix at times.
Rain, Snow, Ice All Threats for Southeast, Gulf States, Tennessee Valley
"I'm very concerned about the Tennessee Valley to the Gulf Coast as far as extremes go this year," Pastelok said.
Areas from eastern Texas all the way up to eastern Kentucky could be under the gun for ice events this season. The region will likely see this in January, but the I-10 corridor should be on guard for a sneaky late-January or early-February storm.
Overall, the region will have a very wet winter, but the timing of these storms will determine whether a flood risk exists.
"These are big storms that are going to form and put down a lot of rain, but there may be breaks in between," Pastelok said.
"The Gulf hasn't been disturbed from tropical activity, so the warmer waters may hang on into the middle part of the winter and give us that extra boost into some of these systems coming up the East Coast."
The weather pattern, a weak El Nino, paired with the southern storm track and rich moisture source will set up Florida for a significant severe weather potential in mid- to late winter. Tornadoes will be possible from mid-January to February.
Dry, Less Harsh Winter in Store for Midwest, Ohio Valley, Northern and Central Plains
In a story similar to the Northeast, the winter season has several cold months planned for the Midwest, though not quite as extreme as last year.
Temperature wise, areas such as Duluth, Minnesota, and Green Bay, Wisconsin, may be 7-9 degrees warmer than last year's three-month average.
Below-normal snowfall totals are also forecast.
Chicago could fail to reach 30 inches this year, and Minneapolis has an even greater chance of falling below normal.
Farther west, the northern and central Plains will endure roller-coaster temperatures. Fewer clipper systems than normal will reach down into the area, preventing high overall snow totals.
El Nino May Lead to High Moisture in Southern Plains, Interior Southwest
A weak El Nino pattern, which is expected to unfold, may lead to high moisture in the Southwest.
"That moisture source is needed to get above-normal snowfall for the region. I do believe there are going to be periods where moisture gets in there," Pastelok said.
If it does, the Four Corners region, including Albuquerque, could get near- to slightly above-normal snowfall totals this year.
"Northwestern Texas, western Oklahoma, Kansas, they can also see near- to slightly above-normal snowfall this year," Pastelok said.
Winter Precipitation Won't Bust Northwest, Northern California Drought
As California suffers through its fourth and most extreme year of drought, the state is in dire need of precipitation this winter.
"California, the northern Sierra and Sierra Nevada are going to be below normal, although I do think that they are going to get enough snow to hold back the drought just a little bit from getting any worse than it is," Pastelok said.
December will bring some rain to northern California, but the precipitation will ease off in the following months, making the region drier than normal by February. After a season of intense wildfires, the precipitation that reaches the Northwest will not be enough to prevent problems next year.
However, the winter isn't all bad news for the drought-stricken region, Pastelok said.
The weather pattern will allow some Eastern Pacific moisture to be pulled in, causing some big events which will increase the snowfall rates in the mountains.
Additionally, Southern California looks to fare better than its northern counterpart with slightly above-normal precipitation this season, especially in areas farther from the coast.

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Total Votes: 8,963
Have questions, comments, or a story to share? Email Jillian MacMath at jillian.macmath@accuweather.com, follow her on Twitter @Jillian_MacMath or Google+. Follow us @breakingweather, or on Facebook and Google+.
 
 
 
 
  • Jim Fisher · Top Commenter
    I must admit I have some hesitation in believing this for the mid-atlantic (specifically PA) area. Two years ago the winter outlook called for above average snowfall in much of the east, and we ended up with near record low levels...while last year's winter forecast made no mention of the persistent extreme cold and snow we had. I'm not saying to not keep trying, and I'm not saying stop putting out seasonal forecasts, but I think a note of caution based on past (and very recent) history is warranted.
    • Jim Spencer
      Exactly what I was thinking. Well said.
    • Dennis James.
      What a load of wishcasting nonsense...as usual. Long range is rarely accurate....no matter who attempts it...consider last December in the NE...all long range fools had it as very very mild before the blast. It turned out to be one of the coldest Decembers on record...blah blah blah....
    • Dennis James.
      No one can foretell the future...only possibilities...averages...wishes...
  • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Fanshawe College
    This pretty much fits into me and Peter Kane's thinking about this coming season. 1958-1959 in particular looks to be a good analogue for this coming winter. 1969-1970 and 2002-2003 aren't bad analogues to consider either except for a few small differences of what we are expecting.

    Not looking forward to this cold winter, at all. I'm just hoping 2015-2016 will be a mild one and that 2015 will have a hot summer.
    • Carol Jean Janvrin · Morrison, Illinois
      I agree, Cory. I love really warm summer nights. Parts of this past summer the nights were so chilly I had to close the windows. Could not hear the crickets, owls, & coyotes. That's hard on a nature lover!
    • Peter Kane · Top Commenter
      There are an few exceptions to what AccuWeather has forecasted. I know AccuWeather's will not be 100% accurate, but they do give an idea on what next winter will be like. One thing they should release is their precipitation, snowfall, and temperature forecasts soon, so I know what they are really forecasting. The NOAA model guidance is not a forecast, it is an idea where model guidance should go. The Midwest does not always get a mild, dry, and snowless winter in El Niño years. However, it is the average of all El Niño years. There have been cold, wet, and snowy winters in the Midwest in El Niño years, most especially when it is a Weak El Niño like what we're heading towards. The opposite happens in a Moderate or Strong El Niño. After this winter, there is a good chance that we could have a hot summer in 2015. I expect Ice Coverage on the Great Lakes, unlike last year, to be low, and there will not be as much snow in the Mid-Atlantic or along the Interstate 95 Corridor.
    • David Mata · Top Commenter · California State University, Los Angeles
      What about 1977-78?
  • Wayne Langhuber · Top Commenter · Tax Specialist at Professional Tax and Accounting Sevices LTD
    My guess is the fall will end up milder than normal in SE Pa. Then it going to depend on the storm track with each particular storm. The wild card is that the El Nino has not formed yet. I think the worst weather is west of I-81. And the area between I-81 and I-95 is going to be a wild card. My guess is precip. amounts to be above average but it will be a mixed bag of snow, rain, sleet and ice. I think 2-3 big snowstorms and less little snowstorms are possible. Temperatures may hold near normal through Mid January then trend below normal from late Jan- Mid Feb before a early spring sets in. Above normal precip. (Not sure is snowfall will be above normal but overall precip. will be and temps about 0-2 degrees below normal. Not abnormal in these parts. The wild card could be the fact that the ocean water temps. off the east coast continue to run above normal. And if the rest of Oct and Nov remain above normal that is going to delay cooling of the ocean. So if a arctic blast comes early it could interact with the warm ocean and cause a big snowstorm earlier than predicted especially if the NAO goes negative. I don't know. Having said that my guess is as good as a flip of the coin. This forecast is similar to 2012-13 and we all know how that turned out. I guess we will have to wait till winter to find out.
  • David Colantuono · Top Commenter · Works at Unemployed
    Although I voted for "A cold, stormy Winter with record snow totals", I also would love a "White Christmas". We haven't had one in many years now here in New Jersey. And, actually, if I could vote for more than one, I would vote for all three choices (purposely skipping "A mild Winter without many storms"). While I would love heavy snowstorms, I don't want crippling blizzards or ice storms, just to clarify what kind of Winter I want.

    I want a White Christmas and a very, VERY cold Winter (I'm talking high temperatures struggling just to reach 20°F and lows dipping to 0°F or below) with repeated snowstorms (6 inches or more without strong winds and ice). NO record high temperatures this Winter please, but I'll take some record low temperatures.

    It's hot enough right now as it is. Temps in the 70s with severe thunderstorms in the forecast. You'd think it was August, rather than October. So, I hope we get a very cold and snowy Winter to make up for this very warm Autumn we're having.
    • Joseph Nazar · Top Commenter · Lakeland High School
      I was thinking about you, David, and how you must feel with all this warmish weather. I'm just surprised that Accuweather hasn't gone on and on about this unusual warm spell.
  • John Coviello · Top Commenter · Susquehanna University
    Accuweather's winter forecast makes a lot of sense for two reasons. Warm pool of water below Alaska in Pacific and weak El Nino in the central portions of the tropical Pacific. Combine those two macro water patterns in the Pacific and it means cold air coming down into the eastern U.S. due to troughing and moisture streaming across the southern tier of the U.S. due to the weak El Nino. That's why southern Cali and the south have rain. This moisture will link up with the cold air masses to the north to dump snow on the Northeast. The fly in the ointment is if El Nino is too weak to have much of an effect on the U.S. weather at all. That is what would make this forecast a bust as far as precip goes.
    • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Fanshawe College
      I also don't think that a weak El Nino would relieve a California drought too much in comparison to a moderate to strong El Nino.
    • Devin Plourde
      I've heard the "warm pool of water below Alaska" argument a lot, and I really think it's severely overrated... That warm pool of water is a result of the ridging and resultant warm temps that have been in that area for almost the past year. That pattern is now breaking down and there's going to be a trough in the area... As a result, that warm pool is really going to take a beating. The point is, that warm pool is more a result of the past pattern in the area than a driver of the future pattern.

      I agree with the rest though, and I'll say that the El Nino regions have been warming nicely as of late, making me feel better about at least a weak El Nino this winter.
  • Carol B. Wise · Top Commenter · Works at Retired
    Why would anyone want a cold, snowy, stormy winter - must be young people without a job, lol.
  • Devin Plourde
    I think the ridging this year will be considerably further east compared to last year, and as a result the most significant troughing and cold anomalies will be positioned a bit further east. This map shows the most significant cold anomalies to be positioned in the Midwest, not all that different from what happened last year. I think that's unlikely due to the coming El Nino, in contrast with the quasi-La Nina conditions of last winter, and also we won't be seeing a negative EPO like last year. I'm predicting that, for the most part, the coldest areas will be around PA/OH/NY with the highest precipitation around New England and just off the coast... So basically a snowy winter for New England, and colder but drier further west, and then warmer as you go west of Chicago. Of course, this is all in general (it will vary throughout the winter), and the coldest areas almost definitely won't be nearly as cold as the coldest areas last year.

    And BTW, snowcover is very high and continuing to advance at a good rate in Siberia, which is a good sign for a negative AO (arctic oscillation), meaning higher likelihood of cold getting released southward.
  • Brian Patterson · · Top Commenter · Bronx, New York
    A developing modest to strong El Niño through the Fall usually has an impact on the snowfall in the Northeast States. Usually an above average snowfall season. Any other conjecture about the whole season being this way; specifically for each area of the U.S. is a joke. I know because I'm a Meteorologist in NYC and we just had a similar pattern last Fall - could mean a similar winter. Still, forecasting a whole season is a guessing game at this point in forecasting accuracy. We are lucky we get days 5-7 accurate at times. I do believe trial and error will eventually help us to forecast seasonal outlooks, but just like Hurricane intensity forecasting beyond 48 hours (accuracy is way down there at the bottom especially out to 120 hrs) - I don't see it happening anytime soon.
    • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Fanshawe College
      The late July-mid October period this year in the Great Lakes has resembled the same period last year for the most part in terms of temps. I guess that could possibly be another sign that there WILL be similarities to last winter. Also, the warm waters in the Gulf of Alaska from last year are still there, and the Siberian snow cover is building up. These could be very good signs that the AO will be negative a lot of the winter.
  • Patricia Burns · Chatham University
    It's all just a bunch of conjecture. For all they know it could be a mild Winter with a little snow in the Northeast. That's what I'm hoping for. Don't need another one like last year as far as the temperatures are concerned (which was downright brutal). I don't want to see another Snowmagedon or another nor'easter that took place back on March 13, 1993. If it does happen I hope our road crews are ready and our roads and bridges don't further crumble.
  • Michael W. Perry · Top Commenter · Works at Inkling Books
    Oh my gosh! What would we do without all this global warming. There'd be no summers in New England. Ice bergs would be floating off the coast of Florida. Thank goodness all this warming we're being told about is keeping us from freezing.
 

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