Thursday, October 9, 2014

Typhoon Vongfong: Dangerous Threat To Okinawa, Kadena Air Base, Japan This Weekend

Jon Erdman and Nick Wiltgen
Published: October 9,2014




 
Typhoon Vongfong may be slowly losing steam, but is also bearing down on the Ryuku Islands, and will make an uncomfortably close pass to Okinawa.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)
As of 11 a.m. Japanese time Friday (10 p.m. EDT Thursday in the U.S.), the eye of Vongfong was just over 300 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base on Okinawa, moving north-northwest at 8 mph.
Maximum sustained winds had tailed off a tad, and has dropped to 140 mph - below the 150 mph necessary to be called a "super typhoon", but solidly the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane, according to the U.S. military's Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
Vongfong has made its northward turn, rounding the western edge of steering subtropical high pressure aloft.
Unlike last week with Typhoon Phanfone, temporary blocking high pressure aloft north of Vongfong Friday into Saturday is expected to nudge the core of Vongfong's strongest winds, the eyewall, near or over parts of the Ryukyu Islands, including Okinawa.
Vongfong will continue to weaken slowly as it moves north, losing super typhoon status (150 mph or greater max sustained winds) shortly, but will still be a formidable typhoon as it draws close to southwest Japan this weekend.
Early Thursday afternoon, Okinawa moved to Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, meaning destructive winds are possible within 48 hours. Sustained winds already were near 30 mph at Kadena Air Base by Thursday evening, local time. Conditions will continue to go downhill Friday in Okinawa, making further preparations difficult.
(MORE: Okinawa Prepares For Vongfong | Latest Observation at Kadena AB)
That temporary upper-level ridge will eventually be replaced by a dip in the jet stream, or trough, that will finally grab hold of Vongfong and accelerate it toward the east-northeast, similar to what happened with Typhoon Phanfone, across or near the Japanese mainland Monday into Tuesday.
Here is a general timeline of potential peak impacts, as best as we know them at this time. All times below are in JST (Japan is 13 hours ahead of U.S. Eastern Daylight Time):
- Ryuku Islands, including Okinawa, Kadena AB: Saturday and Sunday (potentially as strong as Category 3)
- Kyushu, Shikoku: Monday - Monday night (possibly still Category 1)
- Honshu, including Tokyo, Osaka: Later Monday into Tuesday (weakening to a tropical storm)
(FORECAST: Kadena AB/Okinawa | Osaka | Tokyo)
Dangerous high surf will propagate well ahead of the center of Vongfong along the coasts of the above-mentioned areas.
In addition, Vongfong poses another threat for flash flooding and mudslides over an area saturated by over 10 inches of rain from Typhoon Phanfone, as well as several other heavy rain events this past summer.
Those with interests or travel plans in these areas should monitor closely the progress of Vongfong on weather.com and The Weather Channel.

Strongest in 2014

With low vertical wind shear (change in wind speed and/or direction with height), impressive outflow (winds in the upper levels spreading apart from the center, favoring upward motion and thunderstorms) and warm western Pacific water, Vongfong intensified explosively.
According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, Vongfong surpassed Genevieve for the most intense western Pacific typhoon of 2014 by estimated central pressure (900 millibars) on October 7. On the JMA typhoon intensity scale, Vongfong is the third "violent typhoon" of 2014, following Genevieve and Halong.
"It's safe to say Vongfong was the strongest storm on earth since Haiyan last year," said Michael Lowry, storm specialist for The Weather Channel. Haiyan killed over 6,000 people when it slammed into the Philippines in November 2013 with maximum sustained winds estimated at 195 mph by JTWC.

Guam Recap

Based on data from the National Weather Service Doppler radar on Guam, the eye of Typhoon Vongfong passed near or over Rota Island, which is about 45 miles north-northeast of Guam, between 3 and 4 a.m. local time Monday (1 and 2 p.m. EDT Sunday).
(MORE: Flights Canceled, Schools Closed as Vongfong Strikes)


In a series of statements issued Sunday, the NWS office repeatedly warned that "devastating damage [was] expected" on the island of Rota, which lies in the Northern Mariana Islands, a U.S. commonwealth.
The bulletin, eerily reminiscent of one issued by the NWS New Orleans office before Hurricane Katrina in August 2005, included these ominous descriptions of potential destruction from winds that were forecast to gust as high as 140 mph:
"Collapse of some residential structures will put lives at risk. Airborne debris will cause extensive damage. Persons or animals struck by the wind blown debris will be injured or killed. Electricity and water will be unavailable for days and perhaps weeks after the storm passes. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted. Fallen trees may cut off residential areas for days to weeks."
The bulletin said the islands of Tinian and Saipan to the north, as well as Guam to the south, could expect damage of a less extreme nature.
Fortunately, damage was much less severe than expected on Rota. While 70 percent of the island lost power, there had been no reported injuries.
Guam experienced sustained tropical storm force wind with typhoon strength gusts at times. Flash flood warnings were issued for Guam due to heavy rain.
Vongfong was first designated a tropical depression early Thursday, local time, and steadily gained strength as it approached Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. According to the U.S. military's Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Vongfong strengthened into a typhoon Saturday.
(MORE: Typhoon vs Hurricane - What's the Difference?)

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