WeatherFanatics: Tropical System May Brew From Mexico to Florida This Week

Monday, October 20, 2014

Tropical System May Brew From Mexico to Florida This Week

October 20,2014; 9:04PM,EDT

Attention in the tropics will turn to the swath from southeastern Mexico to Cuba and Florida, where a new tropical system may form late this week.
Trudy made landfall over southwest Mexico on Saturday, bringing heavy rain to the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca. Moisture leftover from Trudy, was moving to the eastern side of Mexico and could help spawn a new system.
Although the Gulf of Mexico and the northwestern Caribbean have been mostly quiet in terms of tropical development this season, environmental conditions could be conducive for a system to develop in the southern parts of the basin. The only system to affect these waters this season thus far has been Tropical Storm Dolly during early September.

This satellite loop shows leftover moisture from the former eastern Pacific tropical system Trudy, emergin over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. (NOAA/animated gif).
A circulation may develop from an area of showers and thunderstorms forecast to expand from southeastern Mexico to the Bahamas as the week progresses.

According to AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "Warm sea surface waters and light winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere could spur development during the latter part of this week from near the Yucatan Peninsula to western Cuba."
Winds aloft are much stronger and would likely hinder development if the system was to wander farther north over the Gulf of Mexico.
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While a track toward Cuba, the Keys and the southern part of the Florida Peninsula is possible later this week and into the weekend, it is too early to say with confidence where the system will go since it has not formed yet.
Indications are that a batch of drenching rain and locally gusty thunderstorms will shift from southeastern Mexico to Cuba and part of the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas late this week and into the weekend, regardless of weather or not the system becomes a new tropical depression, storm or hurricane.
A full-blown tropical storm or hurricane is not necessary for some areas to be hit with torrential downpours and rough seas.
According to AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Evan Duffey, "Regardless if it develops into a tropical system, there will be a risk of mudslides and urban flooding."
People on vacation and small craft interests in areas from southeastern Mexico to the Bahamas should closely monitor the situation and stay up to date by checking in with AccuWeather.com.
Even though it is autumn, the Atlantic hurricane season continues until the end of November. The peak of hurricane activity occurs, on average in early September. However, a second peak of tropical activity occurs in the middle of October.

According to AccuWeather Meteorologist Brian Edwards, "As we go into the end of October into early November, wind shear increases over the United States and the Atlantic Ocean. This causes development to occur most often over the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean."
Story by AccuWeather.com Meteorologists Brett Rathbun and Alex Sosnowski.

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