By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
October 11,2014; 9:49PM,EDT
While the number of named tropical systems to date in the Atlantic is behind average, an uptick in activity that began on Friday may continue over the next week or so. As of Friday, subtropical depression 7 was upgraded to the Atlantic Basin's sixth named system, Fay.
Several areas are being monitored for tropical development over the Atlantic Basin into next week.
According to AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "One system will track north of the Leeward Islands toward Bermuda this weekend."
The system has both tropical and non-tropical characteristics.
While strong winds above the sea surface inhibited development earlier this week, the system will move into an area where winds aloft are less strong this weekend.
"As the system moves into this zone of lower wind shear and remains over warm water, environmental conditions could support further strengthening to a sub-tropical storm," Kottlowski said.
The system will affect Bermuda this weekend with squalls, gales and rough seas.
During next week, the system is likely to be swept rapidly out to the northeast and away from North America.
On
this animated gif, one system of concern can be seen in the early
stages of development northeast of the Caribbean Islands. Another large
area of slowly rotating showers and thunderstorms was centered over
Central America, near the lower left corner of the image. A cluster of
showers and storms associated with a disturbance was also located east
of the Leeward and Windward islands. (NOAA/Satellite)Farther south in the Atlantic, a disturbance east of the Leeward and Windward islands had an uptick in showers and thunderstorms recently. This area has a chance of development through next week as it takes a general west to northwest path toward North America, and very close to the northern islands of the Caribbean Sea.
Elsewhere over the tropical waters near the Americas, another area AccuWeather.com meteorologists will be keeping an eye on is a broad area of clouds, showers and thunderstorms over Central America, centered around Honduras and Nicaragua.
"This slowly turning area of weak low pressure might spin off a tropical system on the Pacific side of Central America over the next several days and the same area could yield a system on the Caribbean side next week," Kottlowski said.
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During October, on average, areas most likely for tropical development in the Atlantic Basin tend to shift closer to the near-shore waters of North and Central America.
The Atlantic is behind the curve for the average number of named tropical systems. The last named tropical system over the Atlantic, excluding Fay, was Edouard, which lost tropical characteristics about three weeks ago, on Friday, Sept., 19, 2014. On average, there are nine named systems over the Atlantic by the middle of October.
With 18 named systems this season, the eastern Pacific is running ahead of the average. By the middle of October, the average number of named systems is 15.
For reference, should one or more of the systems develop over the Atlantic, the next name on the 2014 Atlantic list of tropical storms and hurricanes is Gonzalo.
Should a system develop on the Pacific side of Central America, the next name on the list of eastern Pacific tropical cyclones for 2014 is Trudy.
On Social Media
JS Rowan
JupiterFleet
Canadian #Hurricane Current Conditions - Environment Canada weather.gc.ca/hurricane/trac… Tropical Storm #Fay in #Atlantic.
Tyler Eliasen
WMBBTyler
The 6th named storm of 2014, Tropical Storm #Fay, has formed in the Western Atlantic. No threat to the U.S. #tropics pic.twitter.com/LJgH2LfyNe
Oct 10
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