WeatherFanatics: Tropical Development Being Monitored South of Mexico

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Tropical Development Being Monitored South of Mexico

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

October 16,2014; 11:37PM,EDT

The tropics in the eastern Pacific will attempt to come back alive through Saturday, with southern Mexico facing a heavy rain threat.
The eastern Pacific has been void of a tropical system since once-Hurricane Simon weakened to a tropical rainstorm prior to reaching Baja California on Oct. 7.
Ana formed after Simon but in the central Pacific; the reason it did not acquire the name "Trudy" off the eastern Pacific list.
A disorganized broad area of low pressure will attempt to become the next tropical depression or storm in the eastern Pacific through the start of the weekend.

The environment south of Mexico is conducive for development due to warm ocean water and a lack of disruptive wind shear, which can shred tropical systems apart.
"Worst case scenario is that there will be a minimal to moderate tropical storm moving into southern Mexico this weekend," stated AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Rob Miller.
"This system may come onshore near or east of Acapulco with heavy rain being the main threat."
RELATED:
AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center
Mexico Weather Center
Detailed Forecast for Acapulco, Mexico
However, Miller quickly added that the location of a potential landfall is far from set in stone. Until the low becomes better organized, landfall is difficult to pinpoint and all residents along the southern coast of Mexico should keep a close eye on this system.
That is especially true because heavy rain is a concern regardless of development. Even if the low remains disorganized, the Mexican states of Guerrero and Oaxaca would be at risk for potentially flooding downpours through Saturday. Localized mudslides may also result.
The danger for flooding and mudslides would become more widespread if the low intensifies into a tropical storm. Damaging winds would threaten places around the point of landfall as surf turns dangerously rough at the beaches.
After this tropical threat passes, attention will turn to the western Gulf of Mexico for potential development next week.

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