WeatherFanatics: Simon's Moisture to Increase Flooding Risk in Central US

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Simon's Moisture to Increase Flooding Risk in Central US

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

October 7,2014; 9:20PM,EDT

Tropical moisture from Simon may enhance rain and the flooding risk in part of the Central states this week, with some rain spilling into the mid-Atlantic.
Leftover tropical moisture from Simon will impact parts of the Southwest this week. However, moisture will be strung along farther to the east over time.
Over the southern Plains, a great temperature contrast will develop prior to the breakout of heavy rain and drenching thunderstorms.

Temperatures in parts of Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma may flirt with record high levels. Meanwhile, cooler-than-average conditions will hold farther north over the Plains. The temperature contrast will provide extra energy for the upcoming rainfall.
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Latest Statistics on Simon
Southwest US Interactive Radar
Simon to Cause Flash Flooding Risk in Southwest US
The pattern has the potential to unload a general 1 to 2 inches of rain, but local amounts of 4 to 6 inches are possible.
While the exact track of the corridor of heaviest rain is uncertain, some areas in parts of the Plains and Midwest will be hit by drenching rain on multiple days during the pattern.
Cumulative rainfall over several days in part of the Central states can flood some agricultural areas and bring small streams out of their banks. Locally intense, short-term rainfall can lead to flash and urban flooding.
The corridor of the heavy rain will first likely extend across portions of Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma Wednesday into Thursday.
Later in the week, the rain is likely to extend southward and eastward. From Thursday into Friday, heavy rain is likely to reach parts of northern Texas, Arkansas, southern Illinois, western Tennessee and the Ohio Valley.
Know when the rain will hit by using AccuWeather's MinuteCast™. It has the minute-by-minute forecast for your exact location. Type your city name, select MinuteCast, and input your street address. On mobile devices, you can also use your GPS location.
Rounds of less intense rainfall will extend eastward.
One batch of rain will soak part of the central Appalachians and mid-Atlantic Friday into Friday night.
Another batch of drenching rain is possible in parts of the East early next week, which could cause more travel delays.
Looking farther ahead to later next week, another storm system in parts of the Central and Eastern states may tap into tropical moisture from the Atlantic.
Part of the region in the South Central states forecast to be affected by the rain continues in long-term drought, while other areas on the Plains and Midwest have excess soil moisture.

This map shows the percentage of soil moisture as of Oct. 5, 2014, versus the long-term average for the date. A more detailed map is available from the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
Meanwhile, some areas in the East have been experiencing a rainfall deficit and a short-term dry spell.

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