WeatherFanatics: Hawaii May Escape Direct Hit by Ana, Not Its Impacts

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Hawaii May Escape Direct Hit by Ana, Not Its Impacts

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

October 16,2014; 11:43PM,EDT

Hawaii will still face some hazards this weekend despite the likelihood of escaping a direct hit by Ana.
As of Thursday morning, local time, Ana was a tropical storm and moving westward over the central Pacific.
According to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "We expect some strengthening of Ana through Friday, local time, which can bring the system to a Category 1 hurricane."
Ana will continue on that track through Thursday before taking a turn more to the northwest Friday and through this weekend.

The above animation shows Ana moving through the Central Pacific Ocean. The image was captured by the GOES Satellite's Longwave Infrared camera. (NOAA)
Hawaii Gov. Neil Abercrombie issued an emergency proclamation on Wednesday in anticipation of the storm's arrival.
The proclamation, which includes all of the main Hawaiian Islands, allows the state to draw upon funds for protective measures, Abercrombie said in a news release. It also allows easier access to emergency resources at the state and federal levels, along with the suspension of certain laws as needed for emergency purposes.
"Now is the time for all of us to prepare for Ana," Abercrombie said in the release. "The best way the state can prepare is through this proclamation, which allows us to respond quickly to any potential impacts."

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center expects that turn to be gradual with an area of high pressure preventing the hurricane from curving onto or through the islands.
"A minimal system such as a tropical storm, is more likely to take a path more to the west, and south of the islands, while a strong system, such as a major hurricane, is more likely to turn northward," Kottlowski said.
A track more to the west would keep the strongest and most destructive winds offshore. The same cannot be said for other impacts, which will spread across Hawaii in an east-to-west fashion late Friday through Sunday.
The Big Island, mainly southern areas, and Kauai are at greatest risk of experiencing flooding rainfall and tropical storm-force winds. Such winds could cause tree damage and power outages, while isolated mudslides may result.
The Hawaii State Department of Education announced on Wednesday that Hawaii Island public schools will be closed on Friday as a result of the pending storm.
RELATED:
AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center
Detailed Forecast for Honolulu, Hawaii
Interactive Hurricane Tracker
Based on Ana's current forecast path, downpours and winds of 40 mph could graze the other islands. Localized flash flooding and power outages could result, including in Honolulu and Hilo.
Drenching rain is likely to reach parts of the islands that typically do not receive much rain. The northeast trade winds tend to deposit tremendous rainfall on the northeastward-facing slopes of the islands. The circulation from a tropical system, such as Ana, would tend to distribute rainfall to other parts of the islands.
Rough and dangerous surf will develop throughout the island chain.
All residents and visitors to Hawaii should continue to check back with AccuWeather.com for the latest updates on Ana.
If Ana takes a sharper turn to the north, more of the Hawaiian Islands will face a greater danger of flooding rain and damaging winds.
This latest tropical threat for Hawaii follows Iselle's historic landfall on the Big Island earlier this year.
"Iselle originated in the eastern Pacific, but Ana is the second formation in the central Pacific," stated AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Andy Mussoline.
"Wali formed in July but failed to reach Hawaii as a tropical system."
While Ana is forecast to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane, it will not be a repeat of Iselle based on the current forecast track.
"Iselle was a much stronger hurricane as it approached Hawaii and had a larger wind field that encompassed much more of the islands than what Ana is expected to produce," Kottlowski said.
"It would be very rare for Hawaii to be impacted by two powerful hurricanes in one season."
More typical trade wind showers will follow Ana early next week.

AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski contributed content to this story.

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