By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
October 18,2014; 1:28AM,EDT
After blasting Bermuda, Gonzalo will travel into Canada waters and will pass near the Avalon Peninsula in southeastern Newfoundland this weekend.
How rough weather conditions get in Newfoundland will depend on the exact track and strength of the system as it takes a curved path to the northeast over the North Atlantic Ocean.
At this time the center of Gonzalo is forecast to pass near the southern tip of the Avalon Peninsula or just offshore.
While Gonzalo will be slowly weakening as it makes its closest approach and possible landfall this weekend, it will still be a potent storm with disruptions to daily activities, danger to some people and a risk of property damage.
The worst conditions in terms of strong winds, capable of knocking down trees and causing power outages will be south and east of the storm's center. The heaviest rain and the greatest risk of flooding will fall just to the northwest of the center.
According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson, "St. Johns, Newfoundland, and the Avalon Peninsula are likely to experience the worst with strong tropical storm conditions."
Based on the current forecast, rain will move in Saturday night over much of Newfoundland with increasing winds and building seas along the southeastern part of the province. The storm will continue in some eastern areas of the province into Sunday morning.
Winds in St. Johns will average 50 to 70 kph (30-45 mph) with gusts to 100 kph (65 mph). Stronger winds with gusts to hurricane-force, 120 kph (75 mph) are likely on the southern part of the Avalon Peninsula.
"Only if the center of Gonzalo was to track farther to the northwest, for example over central Newfoundland, would widespread wind damage could occur over more of the southeastern part of the province, along with heavy rain over more of the northwestern part of the province," Anderson said.
RELATED:
AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center
Bermuda Weather Center
Newfoundland, Canada, Weather Center
Rainfall of 25 to 75 millimeters (1 to 3 inches) is forecast over the southern and eastern part of Newfoundland.
Since Gonzalo is moving rather quickly, most areas on land can expect a four- to six-hour period of stormy conditions.
Adverse conditions will last longer at sea.
Small craft should remain in port from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning, as seas will build ahead of and remain rough in the immediate wake of Gonzalo. Failure to do so may not only put you and your crew at risk, but also your would-be rescuers.
Seas of 6 to 8 meters (20 to 25 feet) can occur near the southeastern coast of Newfoundland this weekend.
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