Published: September 23,2014
- Tropical Atlantic: overall continues quiet for September
- Eastern Pacific: next disturbance has been slow to organize; still a high probability to become at least a tropical depression (if a tropical storm, name would be Rachel); track forecasts still keep it away from Baja
- Western Pacific: final phase of Fung-wong in South Korea and Japan; next system developing near Guam
ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN/GULF
Whatever energy has been available in the central/eastern Atlantic this month seems to have gone into creating Cat 3 Edouard, as it's been the only named storm there and the month ends a week from now and no additional development is imminent (despite a couple of waves/disturbances with concentrated areas of thunderstorms at the moment).The month started with Dolly in the Gulf of Mexico, and that's been it there too.
Prior to September, the subtropical western Atlantic was a hot spot, with the A, B and C storms (albeit Bertha having come from the Caribbean and western tropical Atlantic).
There have been wannabes in the Gulf of Mexico and in the Atlantic near the southeast U.S. coast, and models suggest that Wednesday the latest wet system there, as it moves over eastern North Carolina, might, like the last one, go through a phase of coalescing thunderstorms near the center along with a core of warm air aloft ("tropical characteristics"), but it's fundamentally not a tropical cyclone, its existence driven by a non-tropical dip in the jet stream and temperature contrasts.
Looking ahead, various runs of various models have at times been toying with something trying to develop in the Gulf or tropical Atlantic, but there's nothing yet on which to hang our hat, and generally the large-scale atmospheric conditions look unconducive as we head through late September into October.
(MORE: Glossary of Tropical Terms | New NHC Storm Surge Maps)
NEXT EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM
Invest 99E has been slow to tighten up off the coast of southern Mexico; still likely to further do so.The flavor of the model track forecasts is neither due west nor to Baja.
WESTERN PACIFIC
Fung-wong is now classified by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), which has issued its last advisory, as a tropical depression, while the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) still has it as a tropical storm; both indicate that it's becoming non-tropical as it interacts with a frontal system. Fung-wong is not as wet as it was, yet there could still be some heavy rain in South Korea and Japan.(MORE: Fung-Wong Forecast)
The next system (tropical depression per JMA, not yet by JTWC) is slowly organizing and likely on its way to become Kanmuri. Models are more in sync with each other, predicting an eventual track toward Japan, though that's still ~6 days out and we'll see if they're consistent from this point on.
No comments:
Post a Comment