Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Tropical Storm Norbert Strengthening of the Coast of Southwest Mexico; Tropical Storm Watch for Baja California

September 2,2014


 
Tropical Storm Norbert, the fourteenth named storm of a busy eastern Pacific hurricane season, formed September 2 off the Mexican Pacific coast, and it may strengthen into a hurricane.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)
Unlike the most recent trio of Karina, Lowell, and Marie, Tropical Storm Norbert will not simply be an "out-to-sea" wave generator.
While Norbert's center may never make landfall, it is expected to creep very slowly to the northwest over the next several days, remaining close enough to parts of southwest Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula to produce some high surf, rip currents, gusty winds and locally heavy rain. For this reason, a tropical storm watch is in effect from La Paz to Santa Fe, Mexico.
Later this week into the weekend, Norbert should take a left turn and weaken into the open waters of the eastern Pacific west of Baja California.
Norbert is encountering some wind shear, or changing winds with height, which may put a lid on its intensification. However, there is still the potential for Norbert to attain hurricane status anytime in the next five days.
The main concern with Norbert will be heavy rain, flash flooding and mudslides, as south to southwest winds on the eastern half of Norbert's circulation funnel deep moisture into western Mexico and the Baja Peninsula. As much as 2 to 4 inches of rain is possible throughout southwestern Mexico through the next few days.
(FORECASTS: Puerto Vallarta | Mazatlan | Cabo San Lucas)
Eventually, Norbert's circulation and the background upper-level wind flow pattern may draw moisture northward, enhancing rainfall over parts of the Desert Southwest late this week into at least next weekend. This has the potential to evolve into a serious flash flood threat in parts of the Desert Southwest.
Incidentally, the eastern Pacific's fourteenth named storm typically arrives by October 11, so the named storm pace is over five weeks ahead of average.
Here is the latest information on Norbert.

Current Information

So, where exactly is the cyclone's center located now? If you're plotting the storm along with us, the information depicted in the map above provides the latitude/longitude coordinates, distance away from the nearest land location, maximum sustained winds and central pressure (measured in millibars).

Projected Path

The latest forecast path and wind speeds from the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Storm/Hurricane Watches/Warnings

A tropical storm or hurricane watch is issued when those conditions are possible within the area. Watches are typically posted 48 hours in advance of the onset of tropical storm-force conditions, since preparing for the storm becomes difficult once tropical storm-force winds begin. A tropical storm or hurricane warning means those conditions are expected in the area. Warnings are typically issued 36 hours in advance of the onset of tropical storm-force winds. When a warning is issued, you should complete all storm preparations and, if directed by local officials, evacuate the area immediately.

Infrared Satellite

This infrared satellite image shows how cold (and therefore how high) the cloud tops are. Brighter orange and red shadings concentrated near the center of circulation signify a healthy tropical cyclone.

Model Rainfall Forecast

The latest forecast rainfall for the next five days, as predicted by the European (ECMWF) computer forecast model.

MORE: Hurricanes From Space

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