WeatherFanatics: Tropical Depression Five Forms in the Gulf of Mexico

Monday, September 1, 2014

Tropical Depression Five Forms in the Gulf of Mexico

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

September 1,2014; 9:09PM,EDT

The southwest Gulf of Mexico has given birth to this season's fifth tropical depression.
The system will take a west-northwest path across the Bay of Campeche through Wednesday.
According to Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "It is likely the area will become the next tropical storm of the season in the Atlantic."
Rough surf and the risk of strong rip currents will spread from the northeastern Mexico coastline to the beaches of South Texas.

This animated gif shows the tropical depression approaching the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. (NOAA/Satellite)
"The system will only have a couple of days to develop, before moving onshore near Tampico, Mexico, on Wednesday," Kottlowski said.
As a result the system is not likely to become very strong.
People along the coast of northeastern Mexico will need to monitor the situation through midweek, as there will be the increasing potential for rough seas, heavy rain and perhaps damaging thunderstorm wind gusts.

"Regardless of whether or not the system develops into a tropical storm will be the risk of life threatening flash flooding and mudslides in the foothills and higher terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains," Kottlowski said.
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Cities in Mexico that can be affected include Veracruz, Tuxpan and Tampico. Brownsville, McAllen and Harlingen, Texas, may also be on the fringe effect of the system, in the form of showers and thunderstorms.
On a positive note, much of the area from the Yucatan Peninsula to northeastern Mexico and South Texas is in need of rain.
Downpours affected the Yucatan Peninsula and part of Central America this weekend, where rainfall has be well below average this year so far.

Factors for Development

"The water is very warm in this part of the Gulf of Mexico," Kottlowski said.
The warm water will add energy to the system should it begin to develop.
Wind shear is not strong in the region.
Wind shear refers to belts of winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere that can shred apart tropical systems when strong.
The orientation of the Bay of Campeche and how it aligns with the counter-clockwise flow around developing systems may be another contributing factor to tropical development.
"Weak systems that enter this region of the Gulf of Mexico tend to be aided by the curvature of the coast, which helps to spin systems up into tropical depressions or storms," stated AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Rob Miller.

The Season So Far

In terms of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, the year so far has been running slower than average in some cases and ahead of average in others.
Excluding tropical depression five, there have been four other tropical depressions in the Atlantic, of which three strengthened and became hurricanes.
The average date for the fourth named system is Aug. 23. However, the average date for the third hurricane of the season is Sept. 9. Cristobal became the season's third hurricane on Aug. 24.
The last time it has taken this long to get to the letter "D" in storm names was in 1994, when Debby formed on Sept. 9.
The next tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin will acquire the name "Dolly."
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski contributed content to this story.

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