WeatherFanatics: Odile's Torrential Rain to Inundate Texas, Southern Plains

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Odile's Torrential Rain to Inundate Texas, Southern Plains

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

September 18,2014; 9:11PM,EDT

Odile and other weather systems will bring both dangerous flooding and drought-busting rain in parts of Texas and the southern Plains.
During and after unloading torrential rain and causing life-threatening flooding in New Mexico and Arizona, moisture from Odile, combined with two frontal systems, will spill across the South Central states with major impact.
Rainfall is needed in portions of western and central Texas, much of Oklahoma and Kansas to eastern Colorado. Part of this region is experiencing extreme to exceptional long-term drought with a rainfall deficit exceeding 10 inches since last year in some locations.

According to AccuWeather Chief Operating Officer Evan Myers, "This is a case of short-term pain and long-term gain."
Enough rain may fall to bring significant rises on streams and rivers, but also fill reservoirs and replenish aquifers in the region.
"The rainfall into the weekend can totally wipe out the drought in parts of western and central Texas, eastern New Mexico and western Oklahoma."
Rain is not needed farther northeast over the Central states, where near- to above-average rains have occurred since the spring.
Regardless of whether or not rain is needed in one location versus the other, rainfall amounts are likely to be excessive in some areas to the point of causing significant flooding.
The speed at which Odile moves to the northeast will factor into how much rain will fall and how much flooding may occur.

At this time, it appears Odile will be moving so slowly that it will miss the connection to be pulled into the Midwest. Instead, the rain will linger for an extended period in parts of the South Central states.

Rainfall Forecast, Flooding Concerns

Enough rain will fall on portions of the southern Plains and Texas to cause flooding in low-lying areas of fields, as well as flash, urban and small stream flooding. Washes that have been dry for months may suddenly fill with water.
According to Texas Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski, "Highways and railroads that cross these washes may be impassable, and travel through these areas may be very dangerous."

A swath of 3- to 6-inch rainfall is likely to extend across the northern Texas Panhandle. Locally higher amounts are possible within this swath.
According to AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions Senior Vice President Mike Smith, "Rainfall amounts can exceed 10 inches in parts the southern Plains and western Texas."
Cities in the path of excessive rain and that have the greatest potential for flooding problems include Amarillo, Lubbock and Wichita Falls, Texas.
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Interactive Radar
A swath of 1-3 inches of rain may encompass an area that reaches northeastward into southern Kansas and southwestern Missouri and southeastward that extends across central Texas to the Gulf coast.
The major cities of Houston, Austin and San Antonio, Texas can be affected periodically by heavy rain and flash flooding into the weekend.
While some moisture will be drawn northeastward along a front dropping into the Midwest this weekend, the rain is not likely to be excessive, due to Odile's very slow forward speed.

Odile's Impacts on Agriculture

The rainfall will have positive and negative impacts on agriculture in the region. The need of rain in the drought areas is obvious.
According to AccuWeather Agricultural Meteorologist Dale Mohler, "The rain will benefit some areas of the winter wheat, which is planted this time of the year over the southern Plains."
"Conversely, where cotton bolls have opened in portions of Arizona and the northern Texas Panhandle, heavy rains can have a negative impact, such as impacting the quality of the crop."
In most cases, from an agricultural standpoint, the benefits will outweigh the problems.
There is a risk that more downpours will fall on areas hit by drenching rain and flooding earlier this month. In Missouri, many areas have received two to three times their normal rainfall for the month so far. Complexes of thunderstorms at midweek have already added to the rainfall in some areas.
For example, Kirksville, Missouri, has received nearly 10 inches of rain so far this month, compared to a normal rainfall of approximately 2 inches through the middle of September.
The prior and upcoming rainfall in these areas could delay harvests and could cause flooding of some fields.

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