Odile Poses Flood Threat for Desert Southwest (FORECAST)

By Jon Erdman
Published: September 16,2014


 
Hurricane Odile tied for the strongest hurricane of record to landfall in the Mexican state of Baja California Sur late Sunday night.
(ODILE: As It Happened | News | Forecast)
Are we looking at a flooding repeat in the Desert Southwest, similar to what happened when moisture from Norbert and Dolly combined?
Typical of tropical cyclones tracking near or over the Baja peninsula, a pump of deep tropical moisture on the eastern flank of Odile's circulation is surging into the Desert Southwest, increasing the potential of heavy rainfall and flash flooding much of this work week.
(INTERACTIVE MAP: Desert Southwest current dew points)
Here is the latest forecast of the flash flood threat:
- Peak flood threat timing: Wednesday and Thursday, with multiple rounds of heavy rain possible. This corresponds to the time when the remnant mid-level circulation of Odile is expected to track into the Desert Southwest, enhancing lift in the atmosphere for heavy rain and thunderstorms.
- Local flash flooding also possible: Anytime through Friday.
- Peak flood threat areas: Central, southeast Arizona, southern New Mexico, parts of West Texas.
- Flash flooding also possible: Lower Colorado River Valley of southeast California, extreme southern Nevada, western Arizona, southern Utah, southwest Colorado, northern New Mexico.
(FORECAST: Phoenix | Tucson | El Paso)
What still remains uncertain is exactly where clusters of heavy rain will break out. Earlier this month, a single cluster of thunderstorms with torrential rain parked over the Phoenix metro area.
While our rainfall forecast above lays out a general area of heaviest rain, keep in mind heavier rain may fall in localized areas in the most persistent thunderstorm clusters. Some rainfall records may be threatened throughout the desert U.S., including Tucson's daily precipitation record of 3.93 inches that was set on July 29, 1958. Tucson's wettest September on record occurred in 2011, when 5.6 inches fell throughout the month. It is possible that that much rain may fall in Tucson this week.
This heavy rainfall will trigger rapid runoff in normally dry washes and arroyos, flooding typical low-water crossings.
On Monday evening, Albuquerque, New Mexico got a taste of what may be to come. A slow-moving thunderstorm drifted over the south side of the city, unleashing up to 3 inches of rain in an hour according to Doppler radar estimates. Some street flooding was reported.
Some Phoenix metro area homeowners were already filling sandbags Monday in anticipation of the heavy rain later in the week.
Never try to cross a flooded roadway -- it may be a fatal mistake!

MORE: Arizona Prepares for Odile's Flood Threat