By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
September 12,2014; 9:09PM,EDT
Between Tropical Storm Odile and a tropical wave, both coasts of Mexico face tropical hazards through Monday.
Tropical Storm Odile will gain strength through this weekend, becoming a hurricane by Saturday. Odile will then parallel the Mexican coast into early next week.
Meanwhile, a tropical wave will move into northeastern Mexico on Saturday. The tropical wave is not expected to follow in the footsteps of once-Tropical Storm Dolly and develop in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
"There does not seem to be enough time for this feature to develop [tropically]," stated AccuWeather.com Tropical Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski.
Even though the tropical wave will fail to become a depression and Odile will not make landfall, both tropical features pose hazards to the coasts of Mexico.
Odile Impacts Through Monday
Odile will remain nearly 200 miles off the western Mexican coast through early next week, keeping the strongest wind and heaviest rain offshore as well. However, the coastline will not totally escape the strengthening storm's impacts.
Drenching showers and thunderstorms will occasionally stream onto the southwestern coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Manzanillo to Puerto Vallarta, as well as the mountains just inland, this weekend.
The downpours will produce a general 50 to 100 millimeters (2 to 4 inches) of rain with locally 150 millimeters (6 inches) along the western slopes of the mountains.
That amount of rain could trigger flash flooding and mudslides, especially since the region was just soaked by once-Hurricane Norbert.
RELATED:
AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center
Mexico Weather Center
Current Stats of Odile
As Odile strengthens, surf will build along the coast of southwestern Mexico this weekend to create life-threatening conditions for those who attempt to enter the water and hazards for cruise ships and other boats in the area.
Minimal tropical storm wind gusts, capable of causing some tree damage and sporadic power outages, will graze the coast between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.
Sunday night through Monday, Odile will pass close enough to spread potentially flooding rain and damaging winds across the southern tip of Baja California as the rough surf pounds the beaches.
Out of the other Mexican communities, Cabo San Lucas has the greatest opportunity to experience sustained tropical storm-force winds between 65 and 80 kph (40 and 50 mph) with higher gusts. Such winds could lead to more widespread tree damage and power outages.
As Odile shifts its impacts from southwestern Mexico to Baja California, some moisture will get drawn up into northern Mexico and contribute to flooding downpours across the Sierra Madre Occidental later this weekend and through early next week.
The danger of rough surf will continue to spread up the coast of Baja California early next week as Odile tracks farther to the northwest, eventually meeting its demise over the cooler waters west of the northern Baja California later in the week.
Despite Odile weakening, the door will still open for its moisture to surge northward and bring flooding downpours back to the Southwest U.S.
Tropical Wave to Soak Northeastern Mexico
Periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms will stream into northeastern Mexico through Saturday as the tropical wave approaches then moves inland. A cold front dropping down from the north will also contribute to the soaking.Matamoros, Reynosa, Monterrey and Ciudad Victoria are among the communities in northeastern Mexico subject to the downpours, which will amount to 50 to 100 millimeters (2 to 4 inches) of rain. Totals will likely reach 150 millimeters (6 inches) in the neighboring Sierra Madre Orientals.
As is the case with the rainfall associated with Odile, flash flooding and mudslides are concerns in northeastern Mexico.
Despite the hazards, the rain will be beneficial in terms of drought relief. Northeastern Mexico joined South Texas in experiencing an unusually dry summer. As of Thursday, Monterrey had picked up only 42 percent of the 294.9 millimeters (11.61 inches) rain that typically falls since June 1.
The heavy rain across northeastern Mexico will taper to spottier showers and thunderstorms to end the weekend. Farther south, a couple of drenching showers and thunderstorms will stream into Tampico and Tuxpan Saturday night through Sunday.
Another Tropical Threat?
Tropical hazards to Mexico will not end with the demise of the tropical wave and Odile but will not come from Tropical Depression 16-E."We could see another tropical threat take shape south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend or early next week, which may eventually impact the southern Mexican coast," stated AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Rob Miller.
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