Sunday, September 21, 2014

Fall to Start Cool in Northeast, Hot in West

By Brian Lada, Meteorologist
September 21,2014; 10:21PM,EDT
 
 
Photo and thumbnail courtesy of Thinkstock.
It's shaping up to be a cool start to autumn for many across the Northeast and Midwest with the new season officially starting at 10:29 p.m. EDT on Monday.
People in these regions may need a light coat or sweatshirt when heading out in the morning or late evening as autumnlike conditions move in right on cue for the start of the season.
Highs on Monday over the Midwest and interior Northeast are expected to range from the mid-50s to the mid-60s followed by overnight lows in the 40s.
Some of the normally cooler spots may even have spotty frost on Monday night or early on Tuesday morning.

Sunscreen and sandals will likely be preferred over jeans and jackets by folks across the Deep South as the summer heat continues on Monday.
Despite the changing of the seasons, highs are still expected to top out around 90 F from South Carolina to central Texas on Monday afternoon.
Warm and humid conditions of this nature are not uncommon for the Gulf Coast states during early autumn; however, with highs typically reaching the mid to upper 80s through the end of September.
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On the other side of the country, autumn will greet residents of the West with conditions more common for early summer rather than autumn.
Temperatures are forecast to run as much as 15 degrees above normal across the West, as well as the Canadian Prairies.
The temperature in Calgary, Alberta, may challenge record values on Monday, less than two weeks after being hit with their first snowstorm since spring.

The first day of autumn may turn out to be a bit misleading for what the start of the season will really bring as the heat over the West gradually shifts eastward throughout the week.
Areas of the Northeast where temperatures struggle to climb out of the 50s on Monday will experience temperatures well above 70 F by Friday.
Those looking to experience the beauty of fall without the cooler weather may find the upcoming weekend to be the best weekend this year to head up into the mountains of New England and view the fall foliage.
Typically, the peak color for fall flag in the White and Green Mountains is late September and early October.


On Social Media
deb candis
dee02652
Fall to Start Cool in Northeast, Hot in West (Sent from Headlines)❤️ accuweather.com/en/weather-new…
Rachael Caldwell
racaldwe
Fall TV season starts for me tonight. Checking out Madam Secretary mostly but not totally because I miss the West Wing.
Nayeli Reynosa
Nayeli979
Is it wrong to be excited for the start of fall (autumn). My favorite season because I can wear baggy sweaters plus it is my birthday season
 
 
  • Wayne Langhuber · Top Commenter · Tax Specialist at Professional Tax and Accounting Sevices LTD
    Well since April the Middle Atlantic has been in a back and forth pattern that has averaged out to normal. Kind of weird. I think late this week sees a warm-up, then early next week a cool down then by Oct 5-15 a period of above normal temps. Then the last part of October will be cool the November turns rainy. Not sure if Nov will be warm or cold. Depends on that El Nino which still has not showed its face yet. While this is 100% guessing on my part I suspect the coldest weather to be in the Upper Midwest/New England while the Middle Atlantic where I live will see above normal precip and variations in temps averaging near to slightly below normal. I think we will see a lot of mixed precip. events as well. I do worry about a bad second severe weather season in the Southeast to the Middle Atlantic.
    • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Fanshawe College
      So far early October is looking to go back and forth from warm to cool. Some Indian Summer weather mixed in with weather more typical for November.
    • Wayne Langhuber · Top Commenter · Tax Specialist at Professional Tax and Accounting Sevices LTD
      For what its worth the NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook call for warmer than normal temps from Sept 25 to Oct 3. So far this Sept has been about 1.5 degrees above normal so I think the chances of it averaging slightly above normal for Sept. look good. October looks like it starts warm. (Brett Anderson says the second week of Oct will be warm. The question will be if that pattern changes. So my guess is the second half of Oct will be colder than normal but the closer to the coast the milder it will be due to water temps running above average. I think Pastelok said November would be warm and rainy. Not sure if I agree. My best guess is a slightly warmer than normal fall then a relatively seasonably cold winter. I think the worst of the winter is NW of where I live. One thing I know. The grass is getting brown. We need a couple of soaking rainstorms and none are coming this week.
    • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Fanshawe College
      Interesting how Brett is thinking that October will be warm and November will be cold, but Paul is thinking the opposite.
  • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Fanshawe College
    Cool in Northeast and Hot in West: Nothing new this year *Sigh*. Oh well, at least the cold weather on Monday will be brief and much of this week will actually feel like early September.
  • Grant McGuire · Top Commenter · Western Connecticut State University
    14 months of this same crappy pattern. Wonder how many years it'll last. I'm betting a change in 2022.
    • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Fanshawe College
      I'm betting mid to late 2015.
    • Grant McGuire · Top Commenter · Western Connecticut State University
      Doubt it. There are MANY more Polar vortex chunks ready to break off
    • Grant McGuire · Top Commenter · Western Connecticut State University
      You're assuming that just because something happened before means it will happen again. Our weather no longer plays by the "rules" of yore
    • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Fanshawe College
      How many months in a row of near to above average temps would the Great Lakes/Northeast area need for you to say that the favorable pattern for the last 2 years is over?

      Is having unprecedented heat the only way for you to be happy and believe that the pattern is over? Yes I agree that the favorable pattern hasn't really changed much since early 2013, but it doesn't mean we won't see sustained warmth at all.

      I gave that point out earlier because history often does tend to repeat itself when it comes to the weather in terms of ENSO phases. Like, I've accurately predicted almost every winter and summer since 2006, so I KNOW that just because 2014 has been a cold year, that doesn't mean every year until 2022 will be cold. The track record method works at least 90% of the time for me when I predict weather.
    • Brent Richardson · Rochester, New York
      Cory Morrison and Grant McGurie, Hi Guys, Looks like it will be warm than average in Rochester NY for next couple of days. Is there any chance we will have brutal winter this year again like we did last year or even worse?
    • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Fanshawe College
      I think the winter will be colder than average in the Northeast and Great Lakes but probably not as cold as last year for most parts.
    • Grant McGuire · Top Commenter · Western Connecticut State University
      I say it will be a repeat of last year, only worse.
    • Brent Richardson · Rochester, New York
      Hmm because i checked next 45 days forecast for end of sept and October, it looks to be above average :( Even I checked weather.com and they already have temp outlook for Oct-Dec and whole east coast will be above average temp :(
    • Grant McGuire · Top Commenter · Western Connecticut State University
      Accuweather also said this weekend would be sunny & summerlike. It wasn't
    • Cory Morrison · · Top Commenter · Fanshawe College
      Also remember what Cotton Mather has said about patterns often having changes at scheduled times, and that cold mid September periods often lead to warm late September-early October periods (This happened last year too).
    • Grant McGuire · Top Commenter · Western Connecticut State University
      The Accuweather team is incompetent. I'm better at forecasting than they are
 

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