Saturday, August 2, 2014

Bertha Quickly Hitting Caribbean Before Bypassing US

By , Expert Senior Meteorologist
August 2,2014; 11:43AM,EDT
 
 
Bertha will continue to race from the Caribbean to the southeastern Bahamas through this weekend before bypassing the east coast of the United States early next week.
While Bertha is expected to remain a tropical storm through Monday, a window will open up on Tuesday for it to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane.
By that time, Bertha will be over the open waters of the western Atlantic.
The tropical storm will continue to first impact places from the Caribbean to the southeastern Bahamas this weekend.
The above NOAA animation shows Tropical Storm Bertha's progress in the Atlantic over the last several hours.

Schedule for Bertha's Impacts

Disruptions from Bertha will tend to be brief over the Caribbean islands to the southeastern Bahamas.
"Impacts from Bertha this weekend will last no more than 12 to 18 hours in a particular location," stated AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Rob Miller.
While the rainfall from Bertha will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to the islands, it will also bring needed rainfall. Many of the islands in the path of Bertha, especially those from the British Virgin Islands to Hispaniola, are experiencing significant drought.

A general 1 to 3 inches of rain is forecast in the vicinity of Bertha, but local amounts of 6 inches are possible. That is especially true along the slopes of the mountains.
Impacts from the rather swift-moving storm will spread from the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday to the Dominican Republic on Saturday night, then the Turks and Caicos and southeasternmost Bahamas on Sunday.

Minimal impact is forecast farther west on Hispaniola for Haiti and on the eastern tip of Cuba, but there can be a couple of locally heavy thunderstorms.
No impact is forecast farther west in the Caribbean, such as Jamaica and central Cuba.
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Beyond the Bahamas, Bertha is forecast to curve more to the north then to the northeast. This projected path will keep direct impacts offshore of the U.S. Only a shift farther west than expected would bring the system right along the East coast.
The surf can become rough from northeastern Florida to North Carolina for a time early next week. The greatest risk to bathers will be an uptick in the strength and number of rip currents.
As Bertha interacts with a front pushing off the east coast of the U.S. at midweek, some rain could reach Bermuda.

Low Hurricane Count for June, July Not Uncommon

The relatively quiet Atlantic tropical season so far in 2014 is not that uncommon. Although the season officially begins on June 1, the most active period does not really get going until mid-August. It is during August and early September, when the waters across the Atlantic are the warmest, and typically, the dry air and wind shear taper off.
Stef Davis and Senior Meteorologist Bernie Rayno explain the ebb and flow of the hurricane season in the video below:
AccuWeather is forecasting a slightly below-average number of tropical storms and hurricanes this season in the Atlantic.

What is Affecting Bertha?

"The system is being steered by the Bermuda-Azores high pressure area," Kottlowski said.
Wind shear has been impacting Bertha, preventing thunderstorms from wrapping uniformly around the center of circulation. Wind shear is a zone of strong winds at mid-levels of the atmosphere blowing from the southwest, west or northwest that can prevent a tropical system from forming or limit the intensity of a formed tropical system.
According to Rob Miller, "In addition to problems with wind shear along the projected path, the mountainous terrain of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will disrupt the wind flow of the storm as it approaches."
There is a chance that if Bertha survives the encounter with the large islands of the Caribbean this weekend, it could strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane while off the East Coast of the U.S. by midweek.
While restrengthening could still occur off the East Coast, it would be more difficult for Bertha to become a hurricane if the mountains of Hispaniola force Bertha to lose its tropical storm status.
The system battled and survived wind shear, cool water and dry air much of this week over the southern Atlantic.

On Social Media
NWS San Juan
NWSSanJuan
11 am Update: Possible impacts due to Tropical Storm #Bertha moving south of PR at this hour #prwx #usviwx pic.twitter.com/JaoxBpoJfi
Robbie Patterson
Rolvix
Headed to Côtes-de-Fer today. Chilling in the Caribbean Ocean for the tropical storm today. #Haiti #Bertha
1h
 

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