WeatherFanatics: New Zealand Target for Strengthening Tropical Cyclone

Tuesday, March 11, 2014

New Zealand Target for Strengthening Tropical Cyclone

By Eric Leister, Meteorologist

March 11,2014; 5:27PM,EDT

Tropical Cyclone Lusi is slowly strengthening near Vanuatu and will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall for both Vanuatu and Fiji through Wednesday.
In the short term, the cyclone will meander just east of Vanuatu into Tuesday night before increasing forward speed toward the southeast during the middle of the week.
Tropical Cyclone Lusi has already produced 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) of rainfall across much of Vanuatu and Fiji. Some of the hardest hit areas, including Luganville, Vanuatu have received around 200 mm (8 inches) of rain so far.
An additional 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) will be possible before the storm departs later this week. As a result, flash flooding will be a significant concern through Wednesday.
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After Wednesday, Lusi will quickly move southward to approach New Zealand by late in the week bringing the threat of damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
Lusi may become extra-tropical before reaching New Zealand; however, the impacts from the storm will remain.
Impacts from the cyclone can reach North Island as early as Friday afternoon with continuing threats through the weekend.
The strength of Lusi is expected to increase as it starts its trek towards New Zealand. It may eventually be as strong as a Category 2 hurricane in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific. Some weakening is possible as Lusi approaches New Zealand, but it will be a dangerous storm regardless.

Flooding is expected be a widespread problem due to heavy rainfall across North Island. Rainfall could be over 125 mm (5 inches) with this storm as it moves over the island. The rugged terrain of New Zealand will make flash flooding and mudslides a major concern this weekend.
Coastal flooding could also be a major problem with higher waves. If this cyclone does strengthen significantly, it could bring waves over 27 feet (8 m) to the northern coastline.
Areas that do not experience flooding will receive beneficial rain. Rainfall for Auckland, which is located in northern North Island, has been just 8 inches (200 mm) since October, well below the normal rainfall of 18 inches (450 mm).
Damaging winds are also a concern as this powerful cyclone moves across New Zealand despite any weakening as the cyclone reaches land. Wind gusts over 75 mph (120 kph) will be possible across North Island, especially near the coast and over the highest terrain.
Meteorologist Alan Reppert contributed to this story

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