Sunday, February 23, 2014

Wet Weather Returns to the West Coast: Beneficial Rains to Soak California, Nevada, Oregon and Washington

By: By Chrissy Warrilow
Published: February 23,2014
 
 
 
After weeks of dry conditions and above average temperatures, wet weather is finally in the forecast for a region of the nation that needs it the most.
(MORE: Water Shortage Puts Communities on the Brink of Running Dry)
Background

Pacific Jet Set Up

Pacific Jet Set Up
Throughout the next several days, a dip in the jet stream will set up over the eastern Pacific, allowing moisture to flow into California, Oregon and Washington.
In addition, two different storm systems are poised to develop over the Pacific and drench the West Coast later this week, providing the parched region with beneficial rainfall.
(MORE: Record Driest Year in California, Parts of Oregon)

The Return of the Rain and Mountain Snow

Background

Wednesday's Forecast

Wednesday's Forecast
Background

Thursday's Forecast

Thursday's Forecast
Background

Friday's Forecast

Friday's Forecast
The first system arrives on the West Coast Wednesday.
Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall can be expected with this round, especially late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Some locations in northern California, including Eureka and Redding, may see as much as an inch of rain from this first round.
In addition to the rain, gusty winds will blow from the south at times during this storm.
(FORECAST: Medford | San Francisco | Sacramento)
By Thursday, the initial low pressure system continues to push east, bringing rain to eastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and much of Nevada and Utah. In higher elevations, snow will fall throughout the Sierra Nevada east into the Rocky Mountains.
On Friday, a second and potentially more potent system pushes toward the California coast.
This system will bring rain as far south as Los Angeles, which is already running 6 inches below normal rainfall this year, on top of an 11.33-inch deficit from 2013. For the combined 2013-14 period to date, only 18 percent of normal rainfall has fallen. While as much as 2 inches of rain may fall in L.A. during this second storm system, it will only be a drop in the proverbial bucket.
Beneficial snowfall will blanket the Sierra Nevada. But again, the amounts aren't likely to be enough to bolster the snowpack – currently only 30 to 50 percent of average – to seasonal norms.
(FORECAST: San Diego | Fresno | Las Vegas)

Will This Be a Drought Buster?

While the rain and snow are certainly welcome, and some locations may receive as much as 2 inches of rain before the two systems move through, it will unfortunately not be enough to eradicate the persistent drought that has been plaguing much of the West.
Background

Western Drought Monitor

Western Drought Monitor
Background

Precip. Needed to End Drought

Precip. Needed to End Drought
According to this week's U.S. Drought Monitor, 78 percent of the western states are experiencing, at best, abnormally dry conditions. Even worse, 40 percent of the western states are experiencing severe drought conditions. In California alone, nearly 15 percent of the state is experiencing exceptional drought conditions, a dire situation.
(MORE: California Drought Reaches New Level of Severity Never Recorded on U.S. Drought Monitor in the State)
As a result of the exceptional drought, watersheds and lakes are running low, not just because of the warm temperatures and dry weather conditions, but also due to the water needs commanded by agriculture and human activity.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor,
  • Lake Cachuma (located in Santa Barbara County) is currently at 39% capacity, which is an issue because it provides 90% of the water supply for the cities of Santa Barbara and Goleta. Potential mitigation plans include installing a floating barge and pipes to get lake water to the outlet portal.
  • The City of Santa Barbara is considering re-establishing a desalination plant built in the late 1980s that was shut down in the early 1990s.
  • The Twitchell Reservoir, which is located along the Santa Barbara/San Luis Obispo County line, is at less than 1% capacity. Ranchers are reducing their herds due to the lack of water and food sources.
(MORE: Stunning Before and After Photos of California's Lakes Depleted by Extreme Drought)
MORE: Desalination in California

Tapping the Ocean

Tapping the Ocean
Associated Press
In this photo taken Sept. 13, a gauge and valve are shown on the exterior of a shut down desalination plant in Marina, Calif. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)

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