Eastern India to face significant tropical threat next week

By Kristina Pydynowski , AccuWeather senior meteorologist

December 2,2016, 9:12:18AM,EST

 

 

On the heels of Cyclone Nada, a new and more significant tropical cyclone threatens to take aim at India next week.
A budding tropical system may ramp up into a severe cyclonic storm during the second half of next week. It could become the strongest cyclone in two years to slam the eastern coast of India.
“There remains uncertainty in the track of the storm, so residents from Chennai to Kolkata should continue to monitor the situation,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
The cyclone could unleash damaging winds and flooding rain over a part of this area, according to Douty. Dangerous seas will also pound and inundate the coast.

The budding tropical system will first take shape as it tracks from the southern Andaman Sea to the Bay of Bengal this weekend.
If development is initially slow, that will change as the system crosses the Bay of Bengal during the first half of next week.
“Conducive environmental conditions, including light wind shear and warm water, across the Bay of Bengal will allow the cyclone to strengthen next week,” Douty said.
Wind shear is the changing of speed and direction of winds at different layers of the atmosphere. Strong wind shear can prevent tropical development or shred apart mature cyclones.
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Rapid strengthening could even occur, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.
As the cyclone develops, flooding rain squalls will spread over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands this weekend into early next week.
Rain, wind and seas will increase as the cyclone further intensifies over the Bay of Bengal early next week, creating dangers for shipping interests before the cyclone targets the eastern coast of India.
Despite the hazards the burgeoning cyclone would pose to India, any rainfall would be beneficial to easing the shortages the region is experiencing.
Communities from Andhra Pradesh southward are enduring large rainfall deficits, according to India Meteorological Department.
“The weather pattern this November has not been good for the Northeast Monsoon,” Nicholls said. “Most of last November, the pattern supported heavy rain pounding southern India. This year, there was little activity.”
Rainfall in Chennai last November totaled 1,024 mm (40.31 inches), compared to the dismal 36.6 mm (1.44 inches) this November. A total of 309.1 mm (12.17 inches) is more typical.
Kakinada only received 10 percent of its normal rainfall in October and November.
However, odds are against the impending cyclone bringing substantial rainfall to most of Tamil Nadu.