Typhoon Nock-Ten (Nina) Heading for the South China Sea After Crossing the Philippines on Christmas

Linda Lam
Published: December 25,2016
Typhoon Nock-ten is now weakening as it passes south of Manilla on its way to the South China Sea. Gusty winds and torrential rain will continue for parts of Luzon Island and much of the central Philippines into Monday afternoon local time.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)
Tropical storms and hurricanes are almost never a Christmas concern in the Atlantic basin but can happen year-round in the northwest Pacific Ocean.

Current Satellite

Known in the Philippine area of responsibility as "Nina," this typhoon moved over a favorable environment for strengthening, where vertical wind shear was low and sea-surface temperatures were very warm.
Nock-ten underwent rapid intensification Friday afternoon through Saturday morning Eastern Standard Time, meaning the typhoon's maximum sustained winds increased by at least 30 knots (about 35 mph) in 24 hours or less.

Projected Path and Intensity

Steered generally toward the west-northwest by high pressure to its north, Nock-ten/Nina first made landfall on Catanduanes Island on Christmas Day as the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with winds of 155 mph.

Super Typhoon Nock-Ten made landfall early Christmas morning EST, or Christmas evening local time.

According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Nock-ten is the strongest northwest Pacific tropical cyclone so late in the season since Susan in 1963 and Hester in 1952. Its winds of 155 mph also made it the strongest tropical cyclone anywhere in the world on Christmas Day since 1960. Nock-ten is also the strongest typhoon on record to make landfall on the Philippines this late in the calendar year.

The typhoon will continue west-northwestward into the South China Sea on Monday. Nock-ten/Nina is expected to weaken into a tropical storm by late-day local time.

Current Wind Speeds

Despite that, some gusty winds, coastal flooding and heavy rain are expected through late evening Monday in Luzon.
(FORECAST: Naga | Capalonga | Manila)

Rainfall Forecast

Some areas of the western Philippines along the path of Nock-ten/Nina could see up to 3 inches of additional rainfall, with locally higher amounts over higher terrain.
Nock-ten is not expected to re-curve northwestward due to the strong northeast monsoon flow over the South China Sea ingesting cooler and drier air.
The last tropical cyclone to impact the Philippines was Tropical Storm Tokage, locally known as Marce, in late November.
The last typhoon to make landfall in the Philippines was Super Typhoon Haima, known locally as Lawin. Haima made landfall in the northern Philippines on Oct. 19 with winds of 140 mph. Damage was extensive from Haima and at least 13 people died.
(MORE: Super Typhoon Haima Damaged or Destroyed Nearly Every Home in One Philippine City)
In addition, Nock-ten is one of the strongest tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific so late in the year. Typhoon season runs year-round.
MORE: Typhoon Megi Hits Taiwan and China