Typhoon Nock-ten (Nina) Rapidly Intensifying Ahead of Strike on the Philippines on Christmas

Linda Lam
Published: December 23,2016
Typhoon Nock-ten is rapidly intensifying just east of the Philippines and will hammer that country Christmas Day, bringing high winds, storm surge flooding, and heavy rain.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)
Tropical storms and hurricanes are almost never a Christmas concern in the Atlantic Basin but can happen year-round in the northwest Pacific Ocean.

Current Satellite

Known in the Philippine area of responsibility as "Nina", this typhoon is located in a favorable environment for strengthening as vertical wind shear is low and sea surface temperatures are very warm.
The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center said rapid intensification was forecast to continue through early Saturday eastern time, meaning the typhoon's maximum sustained winds were forecast to continue increasing by at least 30 knots (about 35 mph) in the 24 hours or less. This rapid intensification phase began on Friday afternoon

Projected Path and Intensity

Steered generally toward the west-northwest by high pressure to its north, Nock-ten/Nina is expected to strike or landfall first in the Philippines Bicol region on Christmas Day, possibly as the equivalent of a Category 2 or stronger hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Destructive winds, storm surge flooding and heavy rainfall are expected in Bicol with the nearest approach of Nock-ten/Nina. Whether the region gets the strongest winds from the typhoon depends on the exact path of the eyewall, which is too close to call.
The typhoon will then continue into Luzon by Monday, local time, including the heavily-populated capital of Manila. Nock-ten/Nina may weaken a bit by the time of its Luzon landfall, due to its circulation interacting with land in the Bicol region.
Despite that, some wind damage, coastal flooding (mainly in eastern Luzon) and flooding rain are expected with the passage of Nock-ten/Nina Monday in Luzon.
(FORECAST: Naga | Capalonga | Manila)

Rainfall Forecast

Many areas of the northern Philippines along the path of Nock-ten/Nina are expected to see more than 3 inches of rainfall, with more than 10 inches locally, especially over higher terrain, leading to dangerous flooding and mud/rockslides.
After weakening as it moves through the Philippines, Nock-ten is not expected to re-curve northwestward due to the strong northeast monsoon flow over the South China Sea ingesting cooler and drier air.
The last tropical cyclone to impact the Philippines was Tropical Storm Tokage, locally known as Marce, in late November.
The last typhoon to make landfall in the Philippines was Super Typhoon Haima, known locally as Lawin. Haima made landfall in the northern Philippines on Oct. 19 with winds of 140 mph. Damage was extensive from Haima and at least 13 people died.
(MORE: Super Typhoon Haima Damaged or Destroyed Nearly Every Home in One Philippine City)
Nock-ten is expected to track farther south than Haima, but given the densely populated area that could be affected by this storm, significant impacts are possible.
(MORE: Hurricanes, Typhoons and Cyclones: Regional Names Explained)
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