UK weather pattern to disappoint as chances for white Christmas diminish

By Jillian MacMath , AccuWeather staff writer

December 2,2016, 4:11:06PM,EST

 

 

Dashing hopes for Christmas Day snowmen and white rolling hills, forecasters predict Britain's weather pattern will leave more to be desired on Dec. 25.
This year, snowy scenes may be found only in films, as the late-December forecast makes no mention of snow for much of the United Kingdom.
“How the pattern unfolds depends on where high pressure is located,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said.
At this point, high pressure is predicted to be across western Europe, though it’s too soon to know its exact location.

Snow covers the ground on Nov. 18,2016 in Weir, England. (Photo/Lucy Connolly)

“This could actually allow the air to be warmer at times across Scotland compared to England and Wales, making snowfall unlikely across the whole of the United Kingdom,” Roys said.
If the area of high pressure is located elsewhere, such as over Ireland, and a cold snap grips Eastern Europe, chances would increase.
“However, you’d still need precipitation - which is very unlikely for the U.K. in the pattern we are predicting,” he said.
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With less than a month to go until Dec. 25, the best chance for snow to fall, however unlikely, is in the Scottish Highlands and northern England.
Statistically, these regions are more likely to get snow on Christmas Day in any given year.
“This year, however, even that has less than a 50 percent chance of happening,” Roys said.
How rare is a white Christmas in the UK?
A true white Christmas, in which snow covers the ground, is rare for the United Kingdom.
According to the Met Office, a widespread covering of snow — where more than 40 percent of reporting stations have snow on the ground at 9 a.m. — has occurred only four times in the last 51 years.
The last occurrence was in 2010, with snow recorded on the ground at 83 percent of recording stations.
However, those who need only to see snowflakes in order to proclaim a white Christmas fare much better.
Met Office records indicate that a snowflake has fallen somewhere in the U.K. on Christmas Day 38 times in the last 54 years.