Heavy Rain and Severe Thunderstorms Will Start 2017 in Drought-Stricken Areas of South

Linda Lam
Published: December 31,2016
Dry conditions have resulted in widespread drought in the South and had many wishing for a wet Christmas. Those wishes will be granted with a wet New Year's instead.
However, in some areas locally heavy rain may cause flooding and the rain may also be accompanied by severe thunderstorms in some areas.

Current Radar, Watches and Warnings.

(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)
Fall was dry in the South, but recent changes have finally brought some much-needed rain. And more rain is on the way as southwesterly flow aloft will allow moisture to return ahead of an area of low pressure. That flow will allow a few disturbances to move through the region, as well.
(MORE: New Year's Forecast)

Rainy setup for early week in the South.

Rain Forecast

Showers have already developed in portions of the lower Mississippi Valley as of Saturday morning. However, not all of the rain that is visible on radar is reaching the ground due to the very dry atmosphere in place.
Rain will continue to develop and spread north and east through the holiday weekend. By late Sunday, the chance for rain will stretch from central Texas to the Carolinas, as well as along the Gulf Coast and into portions of northern Florida.

Five Day Forecast

The chance of wet weather will persist through Tuesday for the Southeast, while drier conditions begin to return farther west behind a cold front that is expected to push through the region midweek. Another disturbance, however, may bring more showers to the South beginning late Wednesday and lasting through late week.
(FORECAST: Asheville, North Carolina | Chattanooga, Tennessee | Montgomery, Alabama)
A wide swath of more than 2 inches of rainfall is anticipated through Tuesday from southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, much of Georgia and northwestern South Carolina. Rainfall may be locally heavy at times, as well.

Rainfall Forecast

Many of the areas that will see the highest rainfall totals have been experiencing the worst drought conditions, including northeastern Alabama and northern and central Georgia.
Of course, there can be too much of a good thing. Residents along the northern Gulf Coast can expect to see more than 4 inches of rainfall as multiple disturbances ripple eastward. That much rain heightened flood concerns enough to provoke a flood watch in portions of the northern Gulf Coast.

Current Flood Watches and Warnings

(MAPS: Weekly Planner)

Severe Thunderstorm Forecast

Thunderstorms are also likely, especially toward the Gulf Coast and a few severe thunderstorms are possible late this weekend into early next week.

Thunderstorm Forecast

Sunday Night

• Forecast: Favorable conditions will allow scattered severe thunderstorms to develop from central and eastern Texas into southern Louisiana.
• Threats: Large hail is the primary threat but damaging wind gusts and a few isolated tornadoes are also possible.
• Cities: San Antonio, Texas | Houston, Texas | Lake Charles, Louisiana

Thunderstorm Forecast

Monday

• Forecast: The threat of severe thunderstorms slides east on Monday, stretching from eastern Texas through Louisiana, southern Arkansas, central and southern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama.
• Threats: Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary threats with a few isolated tornadoes possible.
• Cities: New Orleans, Louisiana | Shreveport, Louisiana | Jackson, Mississippi | Mobile, Alabama

Be sure to check back to weather.com for forecast updates.

Drought Update

Most of the South is still experiencing drought conditions, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released Dec. 29. Some areas have seen a bit of improvement since early November, but unfortunately other areas have seen the drought increase.

Areas experiencing dry conditions as of Dec. 27, 2016.
(U.S. Drought Monitor)

Portions of northwestern Alabama have benefited from recent rainfall. However, a little more than 50 percent of the state remains in extreme drought, the second highest category from the drought monitor.
In Georgia, an area south of Atlanta has seen a slight reduction in the drought, but overall conditions have become worse. As of Dec. 27, 26.52 percent of the state is in the exceptional drought category, the highest category, compared to 14 percent on Nov. 1.
(MORE: Two Rounds of Rain Brought Some Drought Improvement in the South)
Southeastern Tennessee has also seen improvement with only 5 percent of the state in extreme drought on Dec. 27, compared to just under 15 percent on Nov. 1.
Many locations from the western Carolinas into northeastern Mississippi are experiencing one of the driest years on record. Tuscaloosa, Alabama, is seeing its second driest year on record through Dec. 26, and Chattanooga, Tennessee, is seeing its fifth driest year, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center.
(MORE: Record Dry Streaks in the South)
The expected rainfall over the next week will be beneficial, but it won't end the drought. Many areas of northeastern Alabama, northern Georgia, western South Carolina and western North Carolina would still need more than 9 inches of rain over the next four weeks for the drought to end, according to the Palmer Drought Severity Index.
MORE: Southern Drought, November 2016 (PHOTOS)