Severe Thunderstorms Possible on Christmas Day in the Plains

Linda Lam
Published: December 24,2016
Severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central U.S. on Christmas Day, as a storm system intensifies and pivots into the Plains.
This system will bring snow, wind and ice to the north, with rain and thunderstorms farther south.
(MORE: Winter Storm Europa To Bring Heavy Snow, Ice to Northern Plains, Midwest)
While some of the ingredients necessary for severe thunderstorms will be in place, this is not expected to be a widespread outbreak of severe weather with dozens of tornadoes.

These are the atmospheric ingredients for potential severe weather in the Plains on Christmas Day.

This is because the best jet-stream level energy and lift in the atmosphere will push relatively far north in the Plains, while the most humid, warm air near the surface will remain to the south. An overlap of these features is usually needed for an outbreak.
Furthermore, fog, clouds and rain may be in place early on Christmas Day in the Plains, further holding down the instability needed for vigorous thunderstorms.

Sunday's Severe Weather Potential

Sunday (Christmas Day)

• Forecast: Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop in the central Plains and portions of the southern Plains, from central Nebraska southward through Oklahoma, perhaps into far western sections of Missouri and Arkansas.
• Threats: Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. A tornado can't be completely ruled out, but the threat appears low.
• Cities: Joplin, Missouri | Wichita, Kansas | Tulsa, Oklahoma

One good thing about this system is the rainfall that is expected in parts of the South. Areas from northeastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas, Tennessee and Kentucky will likely see the highest rainfall totals through Tuesday. These are areas that are experiencing drought conditions, so this rainfall is welcome.

Rainfall Forecast

However, the areas that have been hardest hit by the South's drought, including much of Georgia and Alabama, will not receive much rainfall.
Be sure to check back frequently for updates, as important details about this storm system could change.

Recent Tornadoes on Christmas

Severe weather on Christmas is not all that unusual, at least in the South.
Just last year, deadly tornadoes and flooding impacted parts of the South and Midwest during the week of Christmas. According to The Weather Channel severe weather expert Dr. Greg Forbes, 67 tornadoes occurred from Dec. 23-28. Six of those tornadoes resulted in 24 deaths. Of the 67 tornadoes confirmed, two were rated EF4 and three were EF3. This was also the deadliest December since 1953.
On Christmas Day 2015, tornadoes were reported in Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi. It was also the wettest Christmas on record in Birmingham, Alabama, Huntsville, Alabama, Knoxville, Tennessee, and Chattanooga, Tennessee.
(MORE: Tornadoes and Flooding Rain Hit the South, Midwest Christmas Week 2015 Recap)

A house in the Midtown section of Mobile, Alabama, is damaged after a tornado touched down Tuesday, Dec. 25, 2012.
(AP Photo/AL.com, Mike Kittrell)

On Dec. 26, 2015, tornadoes were reported in Texas and Oklahoma. Tornadoes impacted the greater Dallas area, including an EF4 twister. An EF2 tornado killed two in Copeville, Texas, and one person died in Blue Ridge, Texas.
In 2012, the largest Christmas Day tornado outbreak on record occurred in the U.S. This outbreak was due to a southward dip in the jet stream and its associated surface low pressure that developed over southern Texas on Christmas morning. As this system, named Winter Storm Euclid, swept eastward, severe thunderstorms stretched from Texas to North Carolina Dec. 25-26.
According to Dr. Forbes, 30 tornadoes were confirmed on Christmas, including two EF3 tornadoes. One of the EF3 tornadoes lasted for 61 miles in Mississippi.
The reports of tornadoes on Christmas Day stretched from southeastern Texas through Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, including Mobile.
(MORE: Worst Christmas Weather)
Fortunately, no deaths were reported directly due to the tornadoes, although two people were killed by falling trees not associated with any of the tornadoes.
According to Storm Prediction Center warning coordination meteorologist, Dr. Patrick Marsh, there have been 64 Christmas Day tornadoes in the U.S. since 1964, most all of which were in the Deep South.

This year, however, thunderstorms are possible in some areas that don't normally see severe weather, or even thunder, this time of year; Kansas City, Missouri, is one example.

It is possible with this upcoming system that rumbles of thunder may be heard as far north as southern Nebraska.

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MORE: Severe Weather in the South