Friday, July 22, 2016

Tropical Storm Warnings Issued for Hawaii as Darby Approaches the Big Island

July 22,2016
Tropical Storm Darby is forecast to bring heavy rain to the Big Island and Maui this weekend as it tracks near the island chain. Darby is expected to be near the Big Island late Saturday morning Hawaii time.
A tropical storm warning has been issued for Hawaii and Maui Counties. Winds of at least 40 mph are expected in those counties, and could be substantially higher in higher terrain. Details can be found below.
A tropical storm watch has been issued for Oahu, where winds of 40 mph are possible on Sunday.

Darby Alerts
High surf from Darby will increase in Hawaii into Saturday. The Big Island and Maui is forecast to see increased rainfall and tropical storm conditions from Darby on Saturday. Windy and rainy conditions will spread to Moloka'i, Lana'i, and Oahu Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

Darby Status and Forecast Timing

Darby was located a bit less than 210 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, as of Friday evening Hawaii time.

Storm Status
Darby is forecast to pass near or just north of Hawaii's Big Island Saturday afternoon, and near Maui on Saturday night.
Darby is expected to slightly weaken while passing through the islands from east to west. 
Wind and rain impacts may start to arrive on the Big Island and in Maui County late Friday or Saturday and then continue into Sunday.

Projected Path

Current radar and winds
Full details are below. 

Darby Forecast Impacts

Rainfall:
Flash flood watches have been issued for the Big Island, Maui, Molokai, Lanai and Kahoolawe. Rainfall of 10-15 inches is possible especially on the higher terrain. Lower elevations will see 3-6", but runoff from higher terrain and localized high rainfall rates may still create flooding.
The greatest risk of flooding and mudslides will be on east and southeast facing slopes.

Rainfall Forecast
Surf:
High surf will really begin to pick up Saturday morning on the eastward-facing shores of eastern Hawaii. Waves may grow to near 22 feet near the center of Darby on Saturday while Darby is near or north of the Big Island, but the worst of these waves are forecast to remain away from shore. 
Surf of 12-20 feet is possible on eastward-facing shorelines on the Big Island and in Maui on Saturday. Waves will decrease on Saturday evening or Sunday morning.  
Surf will grow to 8-14 feet on the northward and eastward-facing shores of Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai on Saturday evening. Waves will decrease on Sunday. 
Beach erosion is likely through Sunday especially on northward-facing beaches. 
Winds:
As mentioned before, tropical-storm-force winds are likely on Saturday in the tropical storm warning area that includes the Big Island and Maui County. This means winds of 39 mph or greater are likely. These winds will spread westward throughout the day on Saturday into Maui County by Saturday afternoon or evening.
Winds of 39 mph or greater could reach Oahu Saturday night or on Sunday.  
Locations at higher elevations will receive higher winds, possibly gusting to 65 mph on the highest peaks. 
Winds will also be locally higher in channels between islands and in between mountain/volcanic peaks. 
Exact locations of the highest wind and waves will depend on the exact track of Darby and its interaction with the islands. 

Probability of Tropical Storm Force Winds
Check back for updates over the next few days on potential impacts from Darby.

Darby's History

Darby reached its peak intensity as a Category 3 last Saturday afternoon. According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Darby is the fifth consecutive east Pacific use of the name "Darby" that has reached major hurricane status. 

MORE: Images of Hurricane Eyes

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