Friday, July 22, 2016

Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Drought Could Soon Become Longest in 130 Years

Jonathan Belles
Published: July 22,2016

No hurricanes have entered or developed in the Gulf of Mexico since September 2013, a stretch of well over 1,000 days. By the end of next week, the streak could be the longest on record, dating back to the 1800s.
The last hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico was Hurricane Ingrid, which made landfall in northeast Mexico in September 2013.
Hurricane Ingrid on September 15, 2013
(Terra/MODIS/NASA)
According to The Weather Channel hurricane specialist Michael Lowry, "If we get to next Saturday (July 30) without a Gulf hurricane, we will break the record going back to 1886."
Longest Stretches Without a Gulf of Mexico Hurricane
(Source: Michael Lowry)
Start, End Dates Days Without a Hurricane
10/1/1929 - 8/13/19321,047
10/16/1989 - 8/24/19921,043
9/16/2013 - ?1,040 (As of July 22)
11/7/1906 - 6/29/1909964
There have been numerous tropical storms that have made landfall along the Gulf Coast since Ingrid in 2013, including tropical storms Colin and Danielle from 2016 and Bill in 2015, to name a few.
(MORE: Hurricane Season Outlook | Hurricane Season Q & A | Debunking Hurricane Myths)
Note that the Gulf of Mexico was delimited as 22 to 31 degrees north, and Danielle would not have been included in the above streaks if it had become a hurricane. The Bay of Campeche was not included as part of the Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico since the last Gulf Hurricane, Ingrid in 2013.
Reliable weather models do not have any tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin through at least July 26, so it's very likely that this long-standing record will fall eight days from now.
MORE: Hurricanes, By the Numbers

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